SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[double D]

I was wondering when EWG was going to mention the 18z model (lol). Even if the GFS flips on the 0z run, (and it probably will) it is still fun to look at.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just for fun...check out the 18Z run of the GFS on day 12:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

If this were to play out, most of TX would be in the middle of a serious winter storm on December 1st!

How crazy would THAT be to start off the winter season?

Now you're talking EWG ... that sure was fun to look at!! That would be one wild weather scenario for us ...

Time to get this out for every run of the GFS. The GFS being the football, Lucy as EWG, and Portastorn as Charlie Brown.




When Aggiecutter starts posting the ensembles, my ears will start perking up a bit. :lol

[Lindaloo]

Who is Aggiecutter?

[vbhoutex]

Who is Aggiecutter?

Where has Aggiecutter been?

He is a well versed weatherwise member who hasn't been around for a while. He is usually more active during the winter months if my brain isn't failing me.

[JenBayles]

Great post, cctx!

I finally broke down and got the chimney cleaned and loaded up the fireplace this evening. I don't remember the last time I actually had a fire in November. The past several winters have been so warm it's been closer to January by the time I spark the fireplace up. Even Dave (who despises winter weather) is enjoying the more seasonal temps this this year. The curs are both snugged up in their respective snuggy spots, and we're all enjoying the cold evening with the fire going. Remind me of this night about 2 months from now.

[Yankeegirl]

I forgot to get some logs from the store... I will get some tomorrow!!!

[Portastorm]

Oh, I'm not kicking that football just YET! ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
229 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE
COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THINK SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO KINGWOOD TO WINNIE LINE. THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY RURAL
AND LOW LYING AREAS. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR BASICALLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE CITY.
RURAL PARTS OF THE COUNTY SUCH AS TOMBALL...KINGWOOD AND KATY
MAY EXPERIENCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS.

REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS VERY QUIET WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER TEXAS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED SEASONAL NORMS
THU-SAT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS A S/WV MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS. A SECOND S/WV WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA
AND HELP CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING NEXT SUN/MON. 43

[Extremeweatherguy]

I havn't check the thermometer yet..but I know it is cold! I am opening my windows this morning to frost covered roofs. (update: I just checked and it is 35.4F!!!)

also, here is the FREEZE WARNING for tonight:

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

.A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER EAST TEXAS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO CLEVELAND
LINE WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF AN AUSTONIO TO
LIVINGSTON LINE WILL ENDURE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S.

TXZ163-164-176>179-196-198>200-212>214-202015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0001.061121T0600Z-061121T1400Z/
BRAZOS-CHAMBERS-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...
CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WILLIS...WINNIE
613 AM CST MON NOV 20 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CST TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT. AREAS NORTHEAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO KINGWOOD TO
WINNIE LINE WILL ENDURE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 30
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE IN LOW LYING AND RURAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPERATURES IN THE CITY OF HOUSTON ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN CENTER
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S
AS YOU APPROACH THE SUBURBS.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[Portastorm]

For what its worth, the GFS has now shown two consecutive runs of a major intrusion of Arctic (or Polar) air into Texas at the beginning of December ... about 10 days out.

Here's a snippet from the 6z run today:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

You'll notice that is a full latitude trough plowing across the US! (should this verify).

Something to watch ...

[Kelarie]

I no longer believe in the GFS. It gets the forecasts by throwing some bones on the floor and so on. I wont believe in this "cold air" until it is blowing in my face.

I have become an unbeliever of winter in Texas now. We will just have 60's and sunny. Yep. That's the stuff.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I no longer believe in the GFS. It gets the forecasts by throwing some bones on the floor and so on. I wont believe in this "cold air" until it is blowing in my face.

I have become an unbeliever of winter in Texas now. We will just have 60's and sunny. Yep. That's the stuff.

The Tooth Ferry, Santa Claus, and the Easter Bunny are more real than the GFS.

[jasons2k]

grrrrrrrrrr, not happy with this little surprise

[double D]

For what its worth, the GFS has now shown two consecutive runs of a major intrusion of Arctic (or Polar) air into Texas at the beginning of December ... about 10 days out.

Here's a snippet from the 6z run today:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

You'll notice that is a full latitude trough plowing across the US! (should this verify).

Something to watch ...

This run also looks a little colder than the previous run too, with a 1044 high in the four corners area. Now throw a little moisture on top of that cold air and we are in business.

If the 12z shows the same thing, then the GFS could be on to something.

[JenBayles]

This freeze is sure a real oddball. Our average date of first freeze is Dec. 15 for the Houston area. Looks like I need to cover my veggies and tender tropicals tonite. Winters have been so warm in recent years, I don't remember the last time I had to drag the old sheets out for the plants. Oh well, hopefully it'll at least kill some skeeters and fleas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For what its worth, the GFS has now shown two consecutive runs of a major intrusion of Arctic (or Polar) air into Texas at the beginning of December ... about 10 days out.

Here's a snippet from the 6z run today:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

You'll notice that is a full latitude trough plowing across the US! (should this verify).

Something to watch ...

This run also looks a little colder than the previous run too, with a 1044 high in the four corners area. Now throw a little moisture on top of that cold air and we are in business.

If the 12z shows the same thing, then the GFS could be on to something.

Well. Something maybe a changing then. This would happen next weekend (Dec 1 or 2) Could have some interesting weather for some of the high school football playoff games next weekend. Hopefully my local team will still be in the dance next weekend. Gotta a new jacket I'd like to get some miles out of.

[Portastorm]

This freeze is sure a real oddball. Our average date of first freeze is Dec. 15 for the Houston area. Looks like I need to cover my veggies and tender tropicals tonite. Winters have been so warm in recent years, I don't remember the last time I had to drag the old sheets out for the plants. Oh well, hopefully it'll at least kill some skeeters and fleas.

Yes Jen ... they have been warm. Actually, if you look at the general climatology numbers ... central and south Texas has been warmer than normal for about the last 2 years!

Don't get too worked up over these GFS numbers yet. As you can see from other posts, the GFS model is what most NWS forecasters use but it can be prone to mistakes. Always look for trends. If these models show the same thing about 4 or 5 times in a row, then it's something to consider.

One thing I have noticed about the GFS in winter over the years is that sometimes it picks up pattern shifts about 10 days out ... loses them for a few runs, then picks it up again. When that happens ... then you REALLY have to take notice.

[Johnny]

I don't know if y'all remember of not but we had some good arctic air move into Texas last year the first week of December. It was during the week I believe on a Tuesday night. I woke up on Wednesday morning and it was 28 degrees and it dropped to 26 the first few hours. That morning flurries were reported in the Conroe area, the Woodlands, in Liberty County and Walker County. We only got up to 32 degrees that day here in Conroe. It only lasted for two days but it was a good push of arctic air, that's for sure.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I don't know if y'all remember of not but we had some good arctic air move into Texas last year the first week of December. It was during the week I believe on a Tuesday night. I woke up on Wednesday morning and it was 28 degrees and it dropped to 26 the first few hours. That morning flurries were reported in the Conroe area, the Woodlands, in Liberty County and Walker County. We only got up to 32 degrees that day here in Conroe. It only lasted for two days but it was a good push of arctic air, that's for sure.

Indeed it was. We had a Christmas party for our church group at our house the first full weekend in Dec last year and it was quite cold that Friday night (upper 30's). I was kind of upset looking two weeks out that we might not be able to use the fire place to give our house that final Christmas look, but the weather was perfect.

[Portastorm]

Yes, I seem to recall it being quite chilly for 2 weeks up to about Dec. 20th or so ... then it got (and stayed) warmer than normal.

Winter = cancel.