SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

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Extremeweatherguy
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#101 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:07 pm

9pm Temperatures:

Galveston = 54F
Austin = 50F
Hobby = 47F
IAH = 44F
Hooks = 41F
Beaumont = 41F
Huntsville = 40F
My thermometer = 38F
Conroe = 36F
Lufkin = 37F

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
846 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. QUESTION IS IF OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA WILL
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS MAINLY RURAL AREAS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TX. BASED ON
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS...WILL ADJUST
LOWS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADJUSTING THE CURRENT NPW FOR THE FREEZE WARNING.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES EXPECTED.
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#102 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:23 pm

45 here now... still dropping!
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#103 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:26 pm

maybe i should go reposition my sensor? where should i put it to get a somwhat accurate reading?
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#104 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:39 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:maybe i should go reposition my sensor? where should i put it to get a somwhat accurate reading?
the best place to put it would be in an open spot about 6 feet up. If it is placed near a building or under a tree/cover, then it's reading could wind up too warm.
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#105 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:39 pm

BTW, I am currently at 37F (9:40pm). :cold:
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#106 Postby Yankeegirl » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:05 pm

i am at 43, i have my sensor hanging on a nail about 6 feet up, not touching the pillar its on, but it is somewhat covered and it is on the northside of the house...
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#107 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:07 pm

Latest (10pm) airport updates:

IAH = 42F

Hooks = 39F

Hobby = 45F

Conroe = 35F

Based on this, I think it seems pretty obvious that Hooks and Conroe will likely be at or below freezing tomorrow morning and IAH will probably be right on the edge. I am without a doubt also expecting a freeze where I am (since I am already in the middle 30s). Hard to believe it is only Nov. 20th.

BTW: Lufkin is already down to 33F with fog/mist. Could this become freezing fog?? :eek:
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#108 Postby hurrican19 » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:09 pm

KORG (Orange County Airport) is reporting 32 degrees ATM.
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#109 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:57 pm

0Z GFS still onboard for an arctic blast late next week:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml
^^evening of Nov. 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^morning of Dec. 1st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^evening of Dec. 1st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^morning of Dec. 2nd (high pressure right over Houston)^^
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#110 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 21, 2006 12:06 am

11pm airport temps:

Lufkin = 32F
Orange = 32F
Brenham = 34F
Conroe = 34F
Hooks = 38F
Huntsville = 38F
IAH = 41F
Beaumont = 41F
Bryan = 42F
Hobby = 43F
Austin = 44F
Galveston = 51F

Based on this...I would venture to say that Lufkin and Orange may be in the mid 20s tomorrow morning..Brenham and Conroe in the upper 20s...and Hooks, Huntsville and IAH all right around freezing.

[/list]
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#111 Postby cpdaman » Tue Nov 21, 2006 12:11 am

wow already at freezing

i'm not in se texas but here in s fl it is 46 in wellington and we have a chance of a shower or two (sleet possible?)
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#112 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue Nov 21, 2006 2:36 am

I am at 38 right now.... still dropping... as i am doing some much needed catch up homework!!
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#113 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:47 am

At 5am Conroe was 30F, IAH was 34F and Hooks was 34F. Temperatures could still drop another degree or two before we reach our lows too. If IAH hits 32F...it will be the coldest November low since 1999 in Houston!
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#114 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:16 am

this is strange. For some unknown reason IAH has warmed up to 36F at 6am (i don't know how since it is EXTREMELY calm out there). However, they are pretty much the only place to have warmed. At Hooks in Tomball they have now dropped to 32F, and on my thermometer I am at 30F. It is a very cold morning indeed! Could even fall a bit more by 7am too.
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#115 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:18 am

UPDATE: IAH DID hit 32F at some point this morning!!! I found this out by looking at their 6 hour minimum!

This is now officially the coldest morning we have seen in November since 1999!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KIAH.html
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#116 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:22 am

managed to hit 32º at my location this am too!!! Indeed an early "freeze" for this area.
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#117 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 21, 2006 8:10 am

somebody left their sprinklers on in this area and it has made a huge cloud of freezing mist. Icicles are starting to form on all metal things it passes over. Pretty crazy sight to watch this cloud of water vapor glide over the landscape.
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#118 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 21, 2006 9:30 am

OK gang, with an early freeze in the Houston area and on the same day ... it's snowing in Charleston, South Carolina ... and we're not even at Thanksgiving ... perhaps this is a good sign that we'll have a real winter in the Southland this year! :cheesy:

A guy can hope, can't he?! :wink:
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#119 Postby jasons2k » Tue Nov 21, 2006 10:56 am

I'm not sure if I actually hit freezing this AM - I didn't get to check my good thermometer before work but the closest Weatherbug - which is generally accurate - did hit 32.

I am surprised that we did get the freeze as dewpoints were coming up - I thought there was still enough residual moisture to keep us safe. Apparently some drier air was able to advect down to the surface so I busted on that.

And no EWG it doesn't "always" happen that way on a radiational night; there are a number of factors that influence what the dewpoint will bottom-out at. Last night the higher dewpoints were quickly scoured-out and then the temperature was able to drop. On a perfectly still night they might have held up high enough at the surface to prevent a freeze. That's what I thought would happen but it didn't hold - maybe next time :wink:
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#120 Postby Johnny » Tue Nov 21, 2006 12:25 pm

How are the models looking as far a a nice cool down after Thanksgiving?
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