Interesting Scenario Off SE CONUS T'giving Week

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006

VALID 12Z THU NOV 23 2006 - 12Z MON NOV 27 2006

...POWERFUL OCEAN STORM TO LASH CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PD...

FINAL MANUAL PROGS FOR D3-7 REFLECT A 50/50 BLEND BETWEEN THE 00Z
ECMWF AND GFS. THOSE TWO MODEL RUNS ARE THE CLOSEST THING TO A
CONSENSUS SEEN IN THE RECENT GUIDANCE. ONLY S/WV TIMING SEPARATED
THEIR SOLUTIONS...SO OPTED TO MITIGATE THIS DIFFERENCE BY AN EVEN
SPLIT. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET INDICATED UNIQUE
ALTERNATIVES TO THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PD...WHICH THO PLAUSIBLE...REPRESENT OUTLYING IDEAS. 12Z GFS
HONORED THE CHOSEN BLEND SURPRISINGLY WELL...AND WAS THE MAIN
REASON FOR STICKING TO OUR GUNS FOR FINAL PACKAGE. ONE AREA THAT
FELT REFINEMENT WAS IN ORDER WAS DEPTH OF SFC CYCLONE ALONG E
COAST D3 AND D4. USED 12Z GEM GLOBAL AS A CORRECTIVE HERE...WHICH
SEEMED TO BE MORE REALISTICALLY INTENSE BASED ON HOW ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PROGGED.

...ERN US...

BIG NEWS IS VORTEX OF RARE DEPTH LIFTING THRU SERN COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE SHORT RANGE AND FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD.
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO FUEL ITS RAINS...WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES GENERATING STRONG WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE US ATL
SEABOARD.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Chacor]

Latest from KNGU:

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/OTSR EAST COAST SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY/UPDATE 2//
REF/A/MSG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN/182027ZNOV2006//
AMPN/OTSR EAST COAST SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY//
POC/SHIP ROUTING OFFICER/-/NAVLANTMETOCCEN/LOC:NORFOLK VA
/TEL:757-444-7750/EMAIL: SRO.NMFA_N.001.FCT(AT)NAVY.MIL//
RMKS/1. THIS MESSAGE INTENDED TO PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION
REGARDING EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AREAS DESCRIBED
REFERENCE A.
2. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST BY 210000Z, RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COMBINATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
AND THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PRODUCES
STORM FORCE WINDS (NORTHEAST 40 TO 55 GUST 65KTS) IN THE
CHARLESTON/CHERRY POINT/VACAPES OPAREAS BY 21/0600Z. IN
ADDITION, SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD WITH INCREASING WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHEAST 18 TO 22FT BY 21/1200Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
COASTLINE.
3. OTSR ADVISES ALL UNITS WHOSE LIMITS ARE EXCEEDED BY CONDITIONS
DESCRIBED PARA 2, SEEK SAFE HAVEN IN PORT OR AVOID THIS WARNING
AREA UNTIL CONDITIONS ABATE TO ACCEPTABLE LEVELS.
4. OTSR WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS EVOLVING WEATHER
SITUATION AND ISSUE FURTHER WEATHER ADVISORIES/DIVERT
RECOMMENDATIONS AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
5. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT THE SHIP ROUTING OFFICER USING
INFORMATION LISTED ABOVE, OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NAVY.MIL.//

[brunota2003]

what does this mean?:
COMBINATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
AND THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PRODUCES
STORM FORCE WINDS (NORTHEAST 40 TO 55 GUST 65KTS) IN THE
CHARLESTON/CHERRY POINT/VACAPES OPAREAS BY 21/0600Z
Cherry Point area will receive storm force winds? is that what it means?

[brunota2003]

I just went and added together the total amount of rain we could get each day, from the NWS pinpoint forecasts, I came out too 13 and 1/2 inches of rain over the next 2 1/2 days!!!

Overnight: A chance of rain, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind between 16 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, then occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 22 and 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 49. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 23 and 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between two and three inches possible.

Wednesday: Occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 57. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 22 and 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three and four inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Breezy, with a east wind 26 to 29 mph decreasing to between 16 and 19 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

Thanksgiving Day: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

Someone please next day UPS me a boat!!! I think I will need one!

[KatDaddy]

Hey Brunota2003 keep us all updated on the details as the storm unfolds. You are going to get pounded by winds and rains. This might as well be a hurricane. A very powerful and rapidly deepening extratropical low with subtropical characteristics. It will be a very interesting week for North Carolina and points Nward.

[JonathanBelles]

looking at 276hrs, as posted elsewhere in the forum, it looks like this may be a pattern. the only difference is that the next time it will be a cold front.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

what does this mean?:
COMBINATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
AND THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PRODUCES
STORM FORCE WINDS (NORTHEAST 40 TO 55 GUST 65KTS) IN THE
CHARLESTON/CHERRY POINT/VACAPES OPAREAS BY 21/0600Z
Cherry Point area will receive storm force winds? is that what it means?

It mean you could be in a lot of trouble; if your living along the Coast in this area.

Seriously it mean that the forward motion of this storm might be onshore, as opposed to the usually offshore motion. Basically because wind circulates counter clockwise and swirls towards the center of a Northern Low and clockwise and swirls out from the center of a Northern High. As such if a storm is heading east at say 20 mph and it's mean circulation wind speed is 50 mph, you only get a reduced wind impact of 30 mph on the Western (or Onshore) side of the storm. Now in a stationary storm you do not subtract the wind on the Western side, so 50 mph impact, worse yet in an Eastern motion storm moving at say 20 mph you get a combined impact of 70 mph on the Western side.

Hope that help you out.

[brunota2003]

it helps me out some yes, but are they stating that winds will be that strong at Cherry Point on land, or just in the operations area over the ocean? I have a weather station at wx underground, give me a few and I'll post the link...the only problem is this area is very wooded, so the winds get knocked down, so we may only pick up a gust on the anemometer to 20 MPH, while at Cherry Point, about a mile north of me, will have a gust to 40 or so because the airfield is open spaces...

EDIT:
Here is the link to my private wx station, it is a Davis Wx Monitor II:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KNCHAVEL3
Ignore the dew point and humidity, need a new sensor for that...funny how both temp/humidity is on the same sensor, and the temp works fine, however the humidity is screwed up...must have to do with the fact that it was submerged during Hurricane Ivan...(hmmm...)

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

the ull seems to have dipped south of the fl panhandle and while the winds are gusting to 40 mph off shore ga, sc, and nc the pressures are around 30.00 and not falling yet

i wonder where this low is forming, and wether it could dive a bit south at the onset and then move to the northeast and then retrograde into the coast or close around nc/sc border late tomorrow/wed

[brunota2003]

Just too update you guys, they are saying the current forecast is still on track, but they did upgrade the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
512 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

NCZ093>095-211815-
/O.UPG.KMHX.CF.A.0002.061121T1800Z-061123T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.W.0003.061121T1800Z-061123T1200Z/
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
512 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
PAMLICO SOUND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
MPH OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF PAMLICO SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE AND TRENT
RIVERS...AND WILL PRODUCE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF ADJACENT AREAS IN
CARTERET...CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES. WATER LEVELS INCREASES OF
4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OUT
OF THE WATER.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

[Chacor]

Latest graphic from KNGU.

[jdray]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

the ull seems to have dipped south of the fl panhandle and while the winds are gusting to 40 mph off shore ga, sc, and nc the pressures are around 30.00 and not falling yet

i wonder where this low is forming, and wether it could dive a bit south at the onset and then move to the northeast and then retrograde into the coast or close around nc/sc border late tomorrow/wed

You can see the spinup right @ the Fla/Ga border. It looks to be a little south of where they were thinking.

That low in the gulf is about to move across the Florida Peninsula, I don't think it will keep that storm south for long.

[krisj]

It is snowing in Charleston. Not sticking, but coming down fast enough that my son filled a bowl and the kids made snowballs, albeit wet ones.

[jdray]

Cool.

Gotta love the wet stuff.

Its sprinkling off and on here, be lucky to see any flurries down here.

[SCMedic]

Yep, still have snow here in the Charleston Metro area. I'm in Mt. Pleasant, and it's been coming down for a couple hours now..Big fat cow pie flakes. I'm originally from CA, and seeing snow like this reminds me of early fall in Lake Tahoe!

It's awesome!

[jdray]

NWS Jax 7AM Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

.UPDATE...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.CURRENTLY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH STRONG MID- UPPER
TROUGH FROM APPALACHIANS TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 06Z FCST FROM GFS
AND WRF SHOW 5H LOW IS CUT OFF OVER GA. VERY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET
FROM SRN FL TO THE WRN ATLC NEAR 34N74W AND REACHING SPEEDS OF 160
KT OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. AT SFC...LOW PRES CONTS TO
DEVELOP NOW AROUND 1012 MB NEAR 32N77W AND GETTING MORE ORGANIZED.
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
OFFSHORE AND WINDS AT THE COAST FROM MAYPORT NWD FROM THE NNW
INCREASING TO AROUND 20G25MPH. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ONGOING IN THE COASTAL WATERS SO FAR TONIGHT WITH SOME STORMS
SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ROTATION BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE PROMPTING
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR WATERSPOUTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING
THE COAST OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM SYNOPSIS...PER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT AND IS PREFERRED MODEL. NAM SFC FORECAST STILL DEEPENS
THE LOW TOO QUICKLY AND MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRES.
THE CUTOFF 5H LOW WILL MOVE E TODAY THEN NEWD WED AND THU RESULTING
IN SFC LOW SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE AND RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND
ENDING CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BY THU BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TODAY...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BEST POPS NE HALF OF CWA WHERE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE. PLAN ON 50-60% COASTAL SE GA TO 10-20% SRN ZONES.
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES. MAX TEMPS
ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ...ONLY 5-10 DEG
AWAY FROM CURRENT TEMPS. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE AT THE COAST SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE. MAY NEED TO
HOIST ONE FOR INLAND SE GA PER BOUNDARY MIXING TOOLS FROM WRF AND
GFS SHOWING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY.

TONIGHT...INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT LIFT
WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE POPS MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER COASTAL SE GA. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A FLURRY OVER SE GA DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO PLACE IN ZONES. LOWS FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Below is something in tonights forecast for northeast FLorida that you just do not see everyday!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL THRU DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTN...AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS DROPPED KSSI TO 39 DEGREES AND KJAX TO 43.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z SOUNDING PROFILE ALONG WITH THE NAM 00Z FCST
SOUNDING...SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 2K FT OF ATMOSPHERE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND GROUND. THUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET
A FEW FLURRIES MIXED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS E PARTS
OF SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE ZFP.

[gotoman38]

We've had some snow and sleet - just for about 30 mins at a time around noon here today... winds have been around 10 mph with gusts to 20 earlier today.

Special Weather Statement

...BLUSTERY WET WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

AN UNUSUALLY INTENSE SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CAUSING PERSISTENT STRONG
WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
ONE INCH IN THE WEST TO AROUND 3 INCHES IN THE EAST WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. RIVERS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH FROM ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THIS
AND THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE EAST HAS
PROMPTED A FLOOD WATCH OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN
SANDHILLS REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WILL MAKE IT UNPLEASANT
AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS FOR BEING OUTDOORS. THE WINDS AND RAIN ARE
APT TO CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON THE ROADS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PEOPLE SHOULD
ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL...EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS...AND SLOW
DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

THE STRONG WINDS AND RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW UPROOTED TREES
AND FALLEN TREE BRANCHES. SHALLOW ROOTED TREES IN SATURATED SOILS
AND TREES WITH LATE SEASON FOLIAGE WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE TO BEING
DAMAGED.

WET WEATHER AND WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30S WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA FOR PEOPLE SPENDING PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...WEAR MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOTHING
WITH A WATER PROOF OUTER SHELL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0