SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[JenBayles]

It usually takes a few hours of freezing or below to burn the bananna trees, and I don't anyone experienced 32 degrees for very long.

What a warm-up today, huh? It's positively steamy compared to what we had for a couple days. Phooey - just in time for a day in a hot kitchen.

[Yankeegirl]

AGREE!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, it was a bit toasty today (if 73F can be considered "toasty". lol). I am just glad the evenings are expected to remain cool.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS continues to show a VERY impressive shot of cold air (and possible winter weather) for Texas in early December:

Morning of December 1st:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Arctic front rushes in with rain changing to a mix of winter weather behind it. This cold air makes it to the coast by morning and winter weather mixed with rain for much of the region would be likely on and off during December 1st (ESPECIALLY in northern TX).^^

Evening of December 1st:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Temperatures falling below freezing in north Texas and into the low to mid 30s in SE Texas with a mix of liquid and frozen precipitation throughout many areas.^^

Morning of December 2nd:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^Freezing line reaches coast with 20s common in inland SE Texas. Also, a few left over snow flurries would be occuring with such cold upper air temperatures (near -6C at 850mb)^^

Evening of December 2nd:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml
^^After likely struggling to get out of the low 40s during the afternoon, temperatures fall back into the 30s by the evening of the 2nd^^

Morning of December 3rd:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Another widespread freeze for SE Texas (as cold as the mid 20s in Houston)^^

All I can say is...wow! If this plays out, then get ready for a REAL blast of winter weather starting in about 8 days!

BTW, the consistancy with the models showing a cold snap in that time period has been pretty high over the last few days. It looks at this point likely that we will (at the minimum) see at least some form of strong front in that period that is likely to at least match the coolest readings we have seen so far this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

ALSO>>>JB's evening post said that this cold shot could bring high temperatures up to 20-30F below average into Texas! How insane would it be to start off December with a day stuck in the 30s? Brr...

However, he also said that this blast of cold will be transient and that this pattern should remain that way for the next 20 days (which means generally near or slightly above normal temperatures with brief shots of very cold air mixed in).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston AFD:

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EMBEDDED IN THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH IT IS SHALLOW WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE DRY RECIRCULATED AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF HEADED THIS WAY
TODAY ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES START TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER SETX WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER...BARRING THE EXPECTED REOCCURENCE
OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AFTER 11 PM AND MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER FLORIDA MONDAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THIS SHOULD IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET RIPPLING ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE JET SHIFTS
STEADILY EASTWARD AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER CANADA AND THE HIGH
PLAINS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ARCTIC BLAST
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO LAY DOWN
SOME SNOW THERE THAT WOULD HELP TO KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM MODIFYING
AS QUICKLY UNTIL IT REACHES OKLAHOMA. THIS POLAR AIRMASS SLAMMING
INTO ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE (PW > 1.4" PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1.7")
AND A VERY STRONG JETSTREAM ACROSS TEXAS POINTS TO A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SETX. AM CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING BUT GFS NOW
SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE OF
LATE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND CONUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEMS INTENSITY AND TIMING FOR THAT MATTER. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON COMING EITHER FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY TO START OFF DECEMBER.

[double D]

This might be one of the shortest AFD I have ever seen. This is from the DFW NWS. They must have been in one big hurry to write this.

DISCUSSION...
301 AM
GFS HAS DRIED THE WEEKEND OUT AND DELAYED NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. I LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW BEFORE
I INCREASE POPS BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A MATCHED SET WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. NOT BAD WEATHER FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO FIGHT THE MALL
CROWDS. AT LEAST THE PACKAGES WON/T GET WET. 84


&&

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This might be one of the shortest AFD I have ever seen. This is from the DFW NWS. They must have been in one big hurry to write this.

DISCUSSION...
301 AM
GFS HAS DRIED THE WEEKEND OUT AND DELAYED NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. I LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW BEFORE
I INCREASE POPS BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS
LIKE A MATCHED SET WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. NOT BAD WEATHER FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO FIGHT THE MALL
CROWDS. AT LEAST THE PACKAGES WON/T GET WET. 84


&&

Maybe they had to get out of the office so they could go stand in line at the malls, etc?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Houston AFD:

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EMBEDDED IN THE AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH IT IS SHALLOW WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE DRY RECIRCULATED AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF HEADED THIS WAY
TODAY ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES START TO
CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER SETX WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER...BARRING THE EXPECTED REOCCURENCE
OF AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AFTER 11 PM AND MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER FLORIDA MONDAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THIS SHOULD IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET RIPPLING ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE JET SHIFTS
STEADILY EASTWARD AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER CANADA AND THE HIGH
PLAINS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ARCTIC BLAST
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO LAY DOWN
SOME SNOW THERE THAT WOULD HELP TO KEEP THE AIRMASS FROM MODIFYING
AS QUICKLY UNTIL IT REACHES OKLAHOMA. THIS POLAR AIRMASS SLAMMING
INTO ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE (PW > 1.4" PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1.7")
AND A VERY STRONG JETSTREAM ACROSS TEXAS POINTS TO A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SETX. AM CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING BUT GFS NOW
SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE OF
LATE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND CONUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEMS INTENSITY AND TIMING FOR THAT MATTER. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON COMING EITHER FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY TO START OFF DECEMBER.

Yea, all of our on air Mets are getting excited about this. Perhaps we'll finally get some cold football weather for some of the high school playoff games next weekend?


The Big 12 championship in Kansas City will be a cold one, that's for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z GFS coming in continues the cold look with temperatures falling into the 30s and 40s during the day next Thursday with rain and possibly a little sleet/snow as well. It also shows a period of sleet/snow in the area Friday morning (Dec. 1st).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Cold front swinging into Texas Thursday morning with a MAJOR temperature drop behind it.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Evening of Thursday Nov. 30th. Cooling upper air temperatures and surface temperatures in the 30s and 40s could mean a little wintery precip toward the end of the precip. shield, and even if not...it will at the very least be COLD and WET.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^The precipitation will likely change to sleet, frz. rain or snow Friday morning (Dec. 1st) if this is right. Most (if not all) of the atmosphere should be below freezing..except possibly right at the surface where it will be in the low to mid 30s. (Frz. rain more likely if pockets of warmer air).^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Very cold December 1st with highs in the 30s and 40s, then falling back into the 30s by Friday evening.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Freeze on morning of December 2nd.^^

[double D]

Yeah it looks very chilly to start off December. Also with a 1040 plus high to our west, the cold air will likely come due south instead to our east.

I love these kind of fronts where the temperatures can fall 20 to 30 degrees within a couple of hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting graphic from the SPC, first time I have seen something like this so far this year:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... hreats.gif

Also, besides the cold..it looks like a major severe weather outbreak is possible too:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[Yankeegirl]

Well its still a few days out... I will keep my fingers crossed that we get some cold air and frozen stuff mixed in with it... I love to put up my Christmas decorations up when its cold outside, it just feels "right"...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST THU NOV 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THEIR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES/ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE DENSE.
WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA...AND
THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 70S) TO PERSIST AND WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY (NORMAL END
OF NOVEMBER HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 AND NORMAL END
OF NOVEMBER LOWS ARE IN MID 40S TO MID 50S). IN FACT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EMBEDDED
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON MONDAY. THIS CHANCE WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF AND LINGERING MOISTURE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXACT TIMING
OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...BUT THIS AFTERNOON`S BEST GUESS
IS BETWEEN SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE SOME POLAR AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REALLY COOL US
DOWN...ESPECIALLY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TOO.

WILL THIS END UP BEING ONE OF OUR DRIEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD? WITH
JUST SEVEN DAYS LEFT...IAH`S TOTALS STANDS AT 0.38 INCHES. IF THE MONTH
ENDED TODAY...THIS TOTAL WOULD RANK AS THEIR SECOND DRIEST NOVEMBER
ON RECORD. ONLY 0.75 INCHES IS NEEDED BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH TO
MOVE OUT OF THE TOP 10. GLS`S TOTAL STANDS AT 0.36 INCHES. IF THE MONTH
ENDED TODAY...THIS TOTAL WOULD RANK AS THEIR 4TH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD. ONLY 0.35 INCHES IS NEEDED BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH TO MOVE
OUT OF THE TOP 10. CLL`S TOTAL STANDS AT 0.05 INCHES. IF THE MONTH ENDED
TODAY...THIS TOTAL WOULD RANK AS THEIR ALLTIME DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
ONLY 0.81 INCHES IS NEEDED BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH TO MOVE OUT OF
THE TOP 10.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB chimed back in today and continued to say how cold this arctic shot will be. He said it will produce temps. of 32F with wind probably all the way to the I-10 corridor of TX and will be a possible record breaking shot in the northern plains. He said that he liked the look of the 0Z models the best (which happens to be the run that produced a large snowstorm in Texas).

Should be very interesting. I can't wait...

BTW: JB said that SUB ZERO temperatures for highs are possible in Denver from this kind of cold shot (and highs in the teens in the upper plains)! That would certainly be amazing and worthy of a BRRRRR if it happened!!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Seems like everyone from JB, the NWS offices accross the state, and local mets are getting on board. Big changes are coming!

[double D]

If i'm not mistaken JB mentioned a couple of weeks ago about a cold air mass coming down the plains into Texas. If this pans out (which most likely it will) then chalk another one up for JB.

[Yankeegirl]

I havent heard anyone else talking about the "big chill" that you all talk of... I will be sure and watch the news tonight...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I havent heard anyone else talking about the "big chill" that you all talk of... I will be sure and watch the news tonight...

They are not mentioning it so much in Houston yet, because it is still a week out (and most local stations only forecast out to 5 days..or 3 if Neil Frank is forecasting). We will probably hear more of it early next week if the scenario remains the same.

Channel 2 is somewhat talking about a "cooldown" though. Earlier today I saw that they are forecasting 60F for a high next Thursday. Though that is still likely way too warm, it is a good start.

[jasons2k]

We drove out to Crosby today for Thanksgiving and the other morning it was obviously much colder out there. All the annuals (including the banana trees) had turned brown & were toasted.