Blue Northern in the Works for TX next Week?

[cheezyWXguy]

anybody think theres the possiblilty of highs not getting above freezing late week here in NTX? Im hoping , not expecting but how great would it be to get some ice or snow on NOVEMBER 30!?!

[double D]

anybody think theres the possiblilty of highs not getting above freezing late week here in NTX? Im hoping , not expecting but how great would it be to get some ice or snow on NOVEMBER 30!?!

Probably not since it will be partly to mostly sunny. Still though I wouldn't be surprised if NTX will be stuck in the mid 40's. That is pretty cold considering full sunshine.

[Extremeweatherguy]

anybody think theres the possiblilty of highs not getting above freezing late week here in NTX? Im hoping , not expecting but how great would it be to get some ice or snow on NOVEMBER 30!?!

Probably not since it will be partly to mostly sunny. Still though I wouldn't be surprised if NTX will be stuck in the mid 40's. That is pretty cold considering full sunshine.

I think north Texas could even be colder than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see a day in the 30s out of this up there. Even in SE Texas it may struggle to get out of the mid 40s. A 1054mb high pressure system is just way too strong (comparable to the Dec. 1989 high pressure).

Basically: I think the current Houston NWS forecast of upper 50s for highs in SE Texas is WAYYYYYYYY too warm (also the low of 39F on Thursday night is probably 10-15F too warm). The models are not showing anything like that. I wouldn't buy into the NWS forecast just yet. Last year for instance, they forecasted about 55F for Houston a week out, and then when that day finally arrived the high was just 37F.

[cheezyWXguy]

also...for us in the dallas area, we have a 20% chance of rain, not partly cloudy...if temps are dropped and precip is raised, even just slightly raised, flurries or even snow showers are possible

[Extremeweatherguy]

CPC shows the core of the cold over the southern plains on days 6-10:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

And it shows us staying cooler than normal through early December:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the Austin, TX HWO:

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SATURDAY MORNING. WINDY THURSDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

Looks like we will be as windy as that one day a couple of weeks ago if that plays out.

[KatDaddy]

Yep. Another wind event for the downtown Houston canyons.

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out all the cold air that will be headed our way:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/Re ... ature.html

[double D]

check out all the cold air that will be headed our way:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/Re ... ature.html

WOW! That is impressive. To bad we won't have a overrunning situation with this cold air .

[JonathanBelles]

are there any temperature specific models?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what the 0Z GFS model run is showing for Houston (IAH):

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 45F

Thursday afternoon = 49F

Thursday evening = 41F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 28F

Friday afternoon = 47F

Friday evening = 34F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 26F

Brr..

Looks like the 0Z has trended temps. even further down from the 12Z and 18Z run. Saturday morning looks like a hard freeze for sure (all the way to metro Houston) and Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s!



And north TX could be even colder than that!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is how the statewide NWS offices are handling the forecasting of the cold right now:

Dallas/Fort Worth:

LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DOWN RIGHT CHILLY. ARCTIC FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN LATE WED/WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH MUCH COLDER/WINDY
WEATHER INTO THURS...BEFORE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRI. OBS
IN WRN
/CENTRAL CANADA CONFIRM ARCTIC NATURE OF AIRMASS. HAVE MAINTAINED A
GOOD TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE COLDER THAN GFS MEXMOS HIGHS IN THURS-SAT
TIME FRAME...DUE TO DENSE/COLD NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS. RARELY DO YOU
HAVE ANY MORE THAN A 10 DEG F DIURNAL RANGE WITH ARCTIC AIR...
SUNSHINE OR NOT. SO WE MAY BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC ON HIGHS IN FRI/SAT
TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR ONLY A SLOW....MODIFICATION NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LVL CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SCENARIO SUN...WE`LL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS TO PREPARE FOLKS.
LUCKILY...NO WINTER PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GET
YOUR COATS OUT AND ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

optimistic on a 43F high forecast? So, basically they are saying that there is a good chance north Texas will be stuck in the 30s for a high one day next week! Brr...

Houston:

VERY STRONG CAA ON TAP AND WILL
NOT ONLY TOPPLE THE MAX-TEMPS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 7OS TO
THE 50S...BUT WILL LIKELY WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES. THIS
SHOULD PUT A DENT IN THE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AND
START DECEMBER OUT ON A DECIDEDLY COLD NOTE. HARD FREEZE
SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

The Houston NWS is getting better and better each day, but they are still way too warm IMO. If Dallas is having a hard time getting out of the 30s, then there is no way Houston is in the middle to upper 50s. Looks like Houston follows the GFS MOS numbers WAY too closely. Hopefully they will lower their forecast soon...

Austin:

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WHAT WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING
WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO GET THOSE OUTDOOR
PROJECTS COMPLETED.

I think Austin is handling it pretty well for their area. They are calling for highs near 50F and lows near freezing or below. I do think this could be still a bit warm, but for being 5+ days out, it is a very good forecast IMO.

Beaumont:

IN THE LONG-TERM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY, EXITING THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS NEAR DAWN ON THURSDAY.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

Beaumont is handling this poorly! First off, the above statement is ALL they wrote in the AFD about the front, and second off, their forecast is WAY too warm. They are calling for 64F Thursday, 38F Thursday night, and 58F Friday. With such a cold airmass there is simply no way they are that warm! Hopefully they (like Houston) will start trending temps. downward soon.

[Opal storm]

Looks like the chill will be spreading all the way over here into Florida.
From Mobile AFD

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD. INCREASING
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY AND WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ABATE ON SATURDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /08


&&

[JonathanBelles]

yay. i was starting to think we were gonna miss this one.

[CajunMama]

Geezum...neither Lake Charles or New Orleans barely says anything about the coldfront. A quote from the LC discussion for Thursday reads "COOL WEATHER RETURNS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NIL:My guess is they'll wait until Wednesday to say anything???

[Portastorm]

Well folks, I was scoffing somewhat last night at the idea that portions of Texas south of Waco would see any frozen precip from this coming arctic blast ... then I saw this little tidbit this morning from the NWS Hydrometeorological forecast folks:

"POST FRONTAL RAINS MAY WELL TURN TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM THE LOWER LAKES REGION TO ERN TX THURS INTO FRI."

And here's a link to the 6z GFS runs that suggest this possibility:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

[cheezyWXguy]

Dallas AFD mentions it to, just more vague:

Thursday night through Sat morning...it'll be cold for sure. Went well
below extended guidance as we feel it's trying to treat this as a
less dense polar airmass...rather than an Arctic one. Am a little
worried with models showing some Post-frontal precipitation with middle level energy moving over top of Arctic Dome Thursday/Thursday evening. Due to low confidence with divergent solutions...have only inserted low chances for a cold rain Thursday/Thursday evening...then sunny cold weather afterwards.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well folks, I was scoffing somewhat last night at the idea that portions of Texas south of Waco would see any frozen precip from this coming arctic blast ... then I saw this little tidbit this morning from the NWS Hydrometeorological forecast folks:

"POST FRONTAL RAINS MAY WELL TURN TO SLEET AND SNOW FROM THE LOWER LAKES REGION TO ERN TX THURS INTO FRI."

And here's a link to the 6z GFS runs that suggest this possibility:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

I am worried about this too. The last 4 runs of the GFS have shown winter precip. reaching Houston, so now that it is a trend I am interested to see if the Houston NWS will mention it anytime soon.

[jasons2k]

Maybe this can save us from a hard freeze

[CaptinCrunch]

INTERESTING FORECAST AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL INVADE NORTH
TEXAS MID WEEK...ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME WINTER PRECIP. THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BOTH IN
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE. HOWEVER...AT THE
PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS FOR THE FIRST ISSUE...ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SLOWING THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WITH EACH RUN...INCLUDING THE 06Z
NAM WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN. STILL...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE
COLD AND SHALLOW...A COMBINATION THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
HANDLING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TREND OF THE MODELS TO SLOW IT
DOWN...WE WILL NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE CWA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WHAT TYPE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. WE HAVE NOT CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT
THEN SHOULD CHANGE TO MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX FOR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SEE ONLY
RAIN FOR MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE COLD AND WINDY...MAKING
IT SEEM QUITE FRIGID OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE MIXED OVER
THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION SO WE HAVE LEFT THE MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION THURSDAY
EVENING...ENDING IT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THERE REMAINS A
REASONABLE DOUBT AS TO TIMING AND PRECIP TYPES...WE WILL ISSUE
ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INDICATING OUR THOUGHTS.

I think the temps will be colder than what has been forecasted, the heavy cold air is hard for models to pick up, it has happened in the past. If we are colder then there should be a real chance for wintery precip Wednesday night and Thursday.