Invest 95L SW Caribbean,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[Coredesat]

Very well-defined LLC (not often you can make those out this well on IR imagery), but indeed, someone hit the "convection off" switch on this one.

[NONAME]

Convection is starting to form again near the center and looks like it will try a go at this I remember the amazing beginnings of Chris (forgetting the ending of him near Cuba.) but he was almost free of convection then it just blew up and he became a depression it was nice to watch. Maybe a repeat type of formation in the west Caribbean though.

[T'Bonz]

To Invest 95L: I just put my Christmas lights up. Don't even start!

[HurricaneHunter914]

If this recurves into Florida, I'll be looking forward to some long needed rain.

[hial2]

If this recurves into Florida, I'll be looking forward to some long needed rain.

Put on the sprinklers...0 chance of a Fla event...

[Chacor]

25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L

[cycloneye]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. A BURST OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. OVERALL...THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WHICH IS STATIONARY FROM
HAITI ACROSS ERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 14N80W.

The above is from the 7:05 AM EST discussion.

25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean


First T numbers from SSD for 95L.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952006) ON 20061125 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061125 1200 061126 0000 061126 1200 061127 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 78.7W 11.8N 79.6W 12.3N 80.5W 12.8N 81.6W
BAMM 11.2N 78.7W 11.5N 79.7W 11.8N 80.8W 11.9N 82.1W
A98E 11.2N 78.7W 11.5N 79.1W 11.7N 79.9W 12.0N 81.1W
LBAR 11.2N 78.7W 11.7N 79.4W 12.9N 80.3W 14.2N 81.5W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061127 1200 061128 1200 061129 1200 061130 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 82.9W 13.6N 86.4W 15.0N 90.4W 17.3N 93.9W
BAMM 11.9N 83.7W 11.9N 87.4W 12.7N 91.2W 13.9N 94.8W
A98E 12.5N 82.4W 14.0N 85.3W 15.0N 88.7W 16.7N 92.0W
LBAR 15.2N 82.4W 17.6N 84.2W 19.5N 86.2W 20.4N 87.3W
SHIP 29KTS 34KTS 31KTS 26KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 78.7W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 78.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

12:00z run of the BAM Models.

Graphic

Skeetobite Graphic

[Thunder44]

Since it's not moving much right now, I think it has a chance to develop under slightly favorable conditions. But I wouldn't expect to do so, from seeing how this season has been.

[cycloneye]

At least,what this does is to ramp up a little bit the activity at the talking tropics forum,and have a finale of the season that the peeps will have something to talk about.

[Hyperstorm]

I think this system has quite a chance of becoming Joyce over the next 36 hours and a fair chance of strengthening to strong tropical storm status, at least. Whoever said goodbye to 2006...

An established upper-level anticyclone for this time of year is expected to persist over the SW Caribbean over the next couple of days, shifting toward the NW Caribbean during the middle of the week. SSTs are definitely warm enough in the W Caribbean and there is plenty of moisture in and around the premises of this system. The major factor that will affect its development will be its position in relation to the upper-level anticyclone. If the system manages to stay in weak steering currents, it will likely strengthen beyond what we could imagine for this time of year. If I were living in Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, etc. I would be watching this system VERY closely and start preparing for a possible landfall of a significant tropical cyclone. Would Joyce be the big name of 2006? We don't know yet, but the answer might be known by later this week.

On an interesting note, if this earns a name, I believe this would be the second latest a tropical cyclone has developed in the Caribbean. The latest of course was the out-of-season development of Odette in 2003.

[wxman57]

If this recurves into Florida, I'll be looking forward to some long needed rain.

Though development is not impossible, it won't likely go anywhere near Florida with the massive Arctic outbreak that will spread across the entire Gulf (and Florida) next week. There's nothing to steer it to Florida before the front hits on Friday. Oh, here's a model plot I made:

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 251600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EST SAT 25 NOV 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z NOV 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-178

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 27/1800Z

NHC is having some interest in this system.A possible (If Necessary) mission for next monday at 1 PM EST.

[fci]

I think they are bored and did not get enough missions dring the season!


(Nice to get ONE MORE post on the Talkin Tropics forum for 2006!!!!)

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 251610
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Frank2]

Per wxman's post, the next cold weather outbreak for Florida wouldn't be until at least next Friday or Saturday:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

funny that the NWS had predicted "warmer and wetter" conditions for Florida this winter, due to El Nino conditions - so far, it's been colder and dryer...

Frank

[wxman57]

Per wxman's post, the next cold weather outbreak for Florida wouldn't be until at least next Friday or Saturday:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

funny that the NWS had predicted "warmer and wetter" conditions for Florida this winter, due to El Nino conditions - so far, it's been colder and dryer...

Frank

Quite true, but between now and Friday there's nothing to steer this disturbance northward.

[Frank2]

I agree - it's toast (it doesn't look like much this morning, either)...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well at least it was good while it lasted.

[HURAKAN]

It came to make us remember the season isn't over just yet!!!