Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest Houston NWS forecast still looks too warm, but it is interesting to see they now think the CF will take longer to arrive (Thursday max temps. have been raised):
Thursday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 53.
Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 30.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Victoria, TX is forecasting 49F/29F for Friday though and they are WELL to our SW, so I think the NWS needs to get on board soon. They are still too warm behind the front IMO. Also, Victoria is forecasting 32F Thursday night and Houston is forecasting 36F. I don't think so..
Hmm.. San Angelo thinks the front will come in a lot faster and thinks the models are way too slow bringing in the front. It will be interesting to see who is right.
Also they think the temperatures could even drop on Thursday afternoon. They must really think this cold means business.
.LONG TERM...
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MID WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT TEMPS UP ACROSS THE YUKON AND ALASKA
CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE -30 TO -50 RANGE...ALONG WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES ABOVE 1050 MB. FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING
THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WHERE TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S. THIS IS A VERY SHALLOW AIR MASS AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS MOVEMENT...WITH DENSITY ALONE DRIVING IT AS
MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE. STILL...THINK THIS INITIAL SURGE WILL
EVENTUALLY FALTER...
AND WILL WAIT FOR A SECONDARY DEEPER SURGE TO
CATCH UP WITH IT ON TUESDAY. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...FRONT WILL FLY
SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN HOW POORLY THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SHALLOW AIR MASSES...
STILL
PRETTY CONTENT TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
MODELS...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND EVEN A FEW HOURS IN CHANGE OF THE TIMING
WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND RAW. GIVEN CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...
850
MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -6 TO -10 RANGE...AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME CLIMBING AT ALL. IN FACT...THINK HIGHS
MAY WILL BE SET IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER
BY AFTERNOON.
NOW FOR THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. VERY LOWEST LEVELS MAY
END UP DRY...BUT WITH DECENT LIFT ABOVE IT FROM THE WAVE AND FROM
THE RIGHT READ QUAD OF THE JET...GETTING SOME SORT OF
PRECIPITATION DOWN FROM THE MID LEVELS TO THE GROUND LOOKS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WARM TONGUE IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER...LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
SET-UP. FOR RIGHT NOW...AND GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
RUN WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY MENTION ANY
WINTRY PRECIP MIXING IN ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT...AND WITH THE WARM
CONDITIONS FROM THE LAST FEW WEEKS...GETTING ANYTHING TO STICK TO
THE GROUND OR AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE TOUGH.
IN ANY CASE...THIS ENTIRE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. HAVE UPDATED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE WEB
BRIEFING FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 60 74 61 78 / 10 10 10 10
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
. Talk about a pipe dream however that would really be awesome. Hopefully this pattern of sharp troughs and blast of Arctic air will contiue all Winter. The weak El Nino just may provide enough SW flow to bring in moisture just when we need for a TX and LA snowfall. That is what I am hanging my hat on for the rest of the upcoming Winter.[/quote
