Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[jasons2k]

Also, Victoria, TX is mentioning a possible "High Wind Warning" down there for Thursday. I wonder if that will translate up the coast to our area too?
BTW, Compare Houston's Forecast:
With Victoria's:
Doesn't quite make sense does it?

Yes, it does.

It is not uncommon at all in Texas for locations to the WSW and even SW to be colder during winter. This is due to changes in elevation & topography (generally higher to the west), humidity/moisture, and proximity to the Gulf.

Just look at an average monthly low temp map of Texas in January. The USDA Hardiness Zone map shows it as well (somewhat).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, Victoria, TX is mentioning a possible "High Wind Warning" down there for Thursday. I wonder if that will translate up the coast to our area too?
BTW, Compare Houston's Forecast:
With Victoria's:
Doesn't quite make sense does it?

Yes, it does.

It is not uncommon at all in Texas for locations to the WSW and even SW to be colder during winter. This is due to changes in elevation & topography (generally higher to the west), humidity/moisture, and proximity to the Gulf.

Just look at an average monthly low temp map of Texas in January. The USDA Hardiness Zone map shows it as well (somewhat).

I would be shocked if Victoria was that much cooler than NW Houston. I do not see how it would be possible for us to both have cloudy skies and for them to be 50F this upcoming Sunday and for us to be 60F. That would make no sense. In the shorter term, I guess the Friday night lows would be possible (29F Victoria, 30F Houston), but I do not see how they would be 49F for a high Friday and we would be 53F. The cold air is going to arrive at both locations at about the same time with about the same strength so there shouldn't be such a difference in the high temps. (especially since both locations are forecasting sunny skies). In fact, the modeling is indicating the high temperatures should be actually a bit colder as you head NE...so technically Houston should be a few degrees cooler on Friday than Victoria is.

However, if this is not a good enough explanation..then how can you explain the fact that Corpus Christi (even further south) is forecasting a high the same as that in Houston on Friday? Down in Corpus they are calling for 53F. You must admit that that would not make much sense, right? A city that much further south situated on the warm GOM waters should not be the same temp. as NW Houston in a polar weather regime (unless they had clouds and we did not).

[weatherrabbit_tx]

living in El Campo which 50 miles northeast of victoria we always had the same temp as bush iah or a couple degrees lower, open prairie nothing to stop the wind plus the elevation which is about 105 ft above sea level and 35 miles from the bay as a crow flies and always seemed hotter over there too usually runs about 98F to 103F in the summertime actual air temp, I dont see that variance here in tomball.

[double D]

Also, Victoria, TX is mentioning a possible "High Wind Warning" down there for Thursday. I wonder if that will translate up the coast to our area too?
BTW, Compare Houston's Forecast:
With Victoria's:
Doesn't quite make sense does it?

Yes, it does.

It is not uncommon at all in Texas for locations to the WSW and even SW to be colder during winter. This is due to changes in elevation & topography (generally higher to the west), humidity/moisture, and proximity to the Gulf.

Just look at an average monthly low temp map of Texas in January. The USDA Hardiness Zone map shows it as well (somewhat).

I would be shocked if Victoria was that much cooler than NW Houston. I do not see how it would be possible for us to both have cloudy skies and for them to be 50F this upcoming Sunday and for us to be 60F. That would make no sense. In the shorter term, I guess the Friday night lows would be possible (29F Victoria, 30F Houston), but I do not see how they would be 49F for a high Friday and we would be 53F. The cold air is going to arrive at both locations at about the same time with about the same strength so there shouldn't be such a difference in the high temps. (especially since both locations are forecasting sunny skies). In fact, the modeling is indicating the high temperatures should be actually a bit colder as you head NE...so technically Houston should be a few degrees cooler on Friday than Victoria is.

However, if this is not a good enough explanation..then how can you explain the fact that Corpus Christi (even further south) is forecasting a high the same as that in Houston on Friday? Down in Corpus they are calling for 53F. You must admit that that would not make much sense, right? A city that much further south situated on the warm GOM waters should not be the same temp. as NW Houston in a polar weather regime (unless they had clouds and we did not).

What I think it is really is that NWS offices don't communicate with each during these arctic blast. This is nothing new and I see it everytime the forecast becomes challenging. Some NWS offices are a little more likely to be aggressive and others are more conservative. It would be nice if adjacent NWS offices would communicate more to align thier forecast to match other adjacent offices. (does this make any sense?)

[wall_cloud]

they do communicate. You just can't make them agree.

[Extremeweatherguy]

living in El Campo which 50 miles northeast of victoria we always had the same temp as bush iah or a couple degrees lower, open prairie nothing to stop the wind plus the elevation which is about 105 ft above sea level and 35 miles from the bay as a crow flies and always seemed hotter over there too usually runs about 98F to 103F in the summertime actual air temp, I dont see that variance here in tomball.

I do agree that open prarie areas could be cooler than Houston (even well to our SW), but I just do not see how more populated areas (such as Victoria) and coastal areas (such as Corpus Christi) could be similar to or colder than Houston during this type of an event.

Basically I am saying that one of the NWS offices will bust. Either the Corpus Christi office is too cold or the Houston office is too warm. ATM, I think Houston is likely too warm and the Corpus Chrisi office is perfect (for their region), but I guess only time will tell. All I know for now is that the current forecasts for both places likely can't happen perfectly at the same time.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Just checked the WFAA site out of Dallas. They had earlier had Thursday's high as 42 with Snow and now they have the hight as 38 and snow. WOW.
Accuweather still has the highs in the 50''s...usually they are opposite so maybe it will happen this time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just checked the WFAA site out of Dallas. They had earlier had Thursday's high as 42 with Snow and now they have the hight as 38 and snow. WOW.
Accuweather still has the highs in the 50''s...usually they are opposite so maybe it will happen this time.

It is amazing to see them forecasting nearly 80F on Wednesday, and then not even to 40F on Thursday. That is one big temp. difference!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just checked the WFAA site out of Dallas. They had earlier had Thursday's high as 42 with Snow and now they have the hight as 38 and snow. WOW.
Accuweather still has the highs in the 50''s...usually they are opposite so maybe it will happen this time.

I think I've heard JB say that Accuweather's numbers on the site come from straight from the computers with no human input.


Watching the NWS Texas office coordinate Arctic airmasses makes for some entertaining reading right now. I was reading the Brownsville NWS discussions and like all of the cold snaps of the past few years which included the Christmas snow of 2004, they are ho-hum about what's coming this week. Portastorm would agree with me if the old timers that used to run the office down there saw what is brewing right now, they would be all over it. They seem to rely on whatever model is the warmest and run with it. The Corpus guys have actually done pretty well the past few seasons. They used to be what Brownsville is now.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I concur with that about the NWS doing that nowadays, in the 80s when we had no internet, the NWS and even accuweather(dr. joe sobel) would tell about a week ahead about such things, guess its up to us to figure things out

[gboudx]

Just checked the WFAA site out of Dallas. They had earlier had Thursday's high as 42 with Snow and now they have the hight as 38 and snow. WOW.
Accuweather still has the highs in the 50''s...usually they are opposite so maybe it will happen this time.

They also have the Wed low as 38. What's interesting about that is the high is 78, so that implies the front comes through and drops temps all day to a low of 38. If I'm thinking of this correctly, if the low on Wed is 38 AFTER the front, and the high on Thursday is 38, then they don't think the temp will move much at all until Thursday evening.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just checked the WFAA site out of Dallas. They had earlier had Thursday's high as 42 with Snow and now they have the hight as 38 and snow. WOW.
Accuweather still has the highs in the 50''s...usually they are opposite so maybe it will happen this time.

They also have the Wed low as 38. What's interesting about that is the high is 78, so that implies the front comes through and drops temps all day to a low of 38. If I'm thinking of this correctly, if the low on Wed is 38 AFTER the front, and the high on Thursday is 38, then they don't think the temp will move much at all until Thursday evening.

I think theyre buying the San Angelo NWS office's AFD with a morning high

[KatDaddy]

High Wind Warning criteria for the Middle TX Coast is pushing it. I will believe it when I see the obs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope the 0Z models initialize the 1054mb high pressure correctly, because if not..then we may have another round of slightly incorrect model runs (which may lead to the continuation of forecasts that may be too warm).

This is really a serious issue IMO. Even the HPC which has the high labeled at 1054mb only had it forecasted to be near 1040-1044mb today! This could really throw off forecasts when it is added into the mix. A high that strong tends to send the cold air due south deep into TX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

High Wind Warning criteria for the Middle TX Coast is pushing it. I will believe it when I see the obs.

It would be pretty crazy though wouldn't it? Truthfully, some areas in Houston should have been under a high wind warning with the last event (since some areas gusted over 58mph), but one was never issued.

Does anyone know..has Houston ever been under a (non-tropical) high wind warning in recent times?

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is amazing...

The 0Z NAM is in and it yet again initializes the high at 1044mb (10mb too weak): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_000s.gif

Here is the HPC map to compare that to: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[Portastorm]

You just gotta love this forecast discussion ... my hats off to whomever wrote this in the NWSFO Fort Worth. We get a glimpse into what forecasters are struggling with and trying to figure out. This stuff is just great:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

.UPDATE...

FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEK...SOME THINGS ARE CERTAIN WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT.

OF CERTAINTY...
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
3) MUCH COLDER THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS.
4) A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A LESSER FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.
5) CONVECTIVE FORM PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CHANGING OVER TO STRATIFORM THURSDAY.
6) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT...LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...LIGHT SLEET NORTHERN HALF BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.
7) STRONG SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).


AND FOR THE UNCERTAIN...
1) ACTUAL TIMING OF FROPA FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS...LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURE DIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...10..15 OR 25 DEGREES IN
THE FIRST HOUR?
3) WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE -4C TO -15C RANGE
FOR ANY SNOW PRODUCTION. (CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK SO).
4) COULD ANYTHING STICK TO ROADWAYS (DON/T THINK SO AT THE MOMENT).
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STICK TO ELEVATED SURFACES
5) COULD THERE BE ANY MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL DISRUPTION?
(DON/T THINK SO).


LOOKING THE 12Z/18Z DATA SETS....FEEL THE DAY CREW DID THEIR BEST TO
COVER THESE CONCERNS. THUS...THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN THIS
EVENING UPDATED ZONE FORECAST. THE GENERAL OVERALL FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THE 00Z MODEL DATA ARRIVES. THE 00Z NAM
SERIES IS IN AND INDICATES FROPA AT DFW AROUND SUNSET...AND AT WACO
ABOUT 2 OR 3 HOURS LATER. IT WAS NOT MUCH HELP CONCERNING
PRECIPITATION. 75

[Yankeegirl]

I have no clue how to read those maps... so what are you saying, in English?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have no clue how to read those maps... so what are you saying, in English?

the NAM is showing a 1044mb High up in NW Canada when it really is a 1054mb high. Therefore, the ensuing run of the NAM (as well as most other models today) could be slightly incorrect because it may not be picking up on the strength of the high pressure correctly (they have been showing it weaker than it really is). The stronger the high pressure is...the further south the cold air usually can plunge without being sent eastward. Also, a stronger high can usually lead to colder overnight temperatures and a deeper, denser arctic airmass. This may be why the models are having somewhat of a hard time with next weeks front and cold air. If the high is really as strong as the HPC is showing it, then we could potentially be looking at colder temperatures than the models are showing right now.

one things for sure though..the current airmass up there is most certainly arctic: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/91/

Check out the current conditions up in Alaska: http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/cu ... mperature/
^^BRRR!!!^^

And here are the current conditions in Canada: http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... anada.html
^^BRRR!!!^^

[double D]

I was browsing the KHOU weather fourms and a pro met who frequently visits the "Talkin Tropics" fourm said that he thinks the Houston NWS is 15-20 degrees to warm through Saturday. He also thinks that this weekend will be much cooler than what they are forecasting (highs in the 40's). Just thought that was interesting.