Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

[HURAKAN]

T0621 (DURIAN)
Issued at 18:00 UTC 26 Nov 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 10.1N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 90NM

FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 10.0N 136.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 281800UTC 11.4N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 291800UTC 12.3N 125.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

40 knots. 994 mb.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey guys. Tropical storm Durian is currently sittitng just to the north of Yap with winds of 40kts. As it stands I'm preparing to fly to Manila tomorrow to meet storm chaser Geoff Mackley and check out what Durian has in store for the Phillipines. JMA forecasting winds up to 65kts but will Durian do a Xangsane, Cimaron or Chebi?

Here's the latest JMA warning:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 27 Nov 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 10.4N 138.4E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 100NM

FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 11.2N 133.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 290600UTC 12.4N 127.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 300600UTC 12.7N 123.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[Chacor]

JTWC are no longer calling for a super typhoon. Shear, perhaps?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Bags are packed and I'll be getting up at 2100z (0500 local) to standby for the first flight to Hong Kong. Connecting flight should leave HK at 0635z (1435 local) and get into Manila two hours later. Updates will be posted here!

James.

[P.K.]

Durian is now a 50kt STS (990hPa).

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like it's starting to get it's act together ie 10kts intensification in 12hrs. Looks much better on satellite now too.

[rainstorm]

manila could get slammed

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 009
WTPN31 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 136.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 136.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.8N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.8N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.6N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.2N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 136.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Bags are packed and ready to go BUT I ain't going anywhere yet! Judging by latest JTWC track there's more model agreement on re-curvature scenario. On top of that they don't have too much faith in their own intensity forecast. This taken from warning 8 prognostic reasoing:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TWO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS (22W AND 23W) FOLLOWED A SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK AND EXPERIENCED A PERIOD OF VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONCE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WITH TS 24W, A COMPARISON OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS FROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB REVEALS A MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE TONGUE OF DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT STORM. IF THIS DRIER AIR PENETRATES THE SYSTEM CORE, FORECAST INTENSITIES MAY BE TOO HIGH BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72.

Will wait until 00z warnings come out and take it from there!

James.

[Aslkahuna]

I saw that track forecast and it's looking more like a climo favored track. We are talking early December basically when the recurvature latitude is decidely below 20N as a general rule. December storms that strike the Philppines most often come in around Samar or Leyte and only rarely come across Luzon from Manila north. I would expect to see the next advisory or two curve the storm out before reaching Luzon.

Steve

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 11.3N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 12.8N 129.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 14.1N 124.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 010000UTC 13.9N 120.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =

[P.K.]

[Chacor]

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.
STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm going to be putting this interception off unless all models and forecasts come together in full agreement in the next 18 hours, which I think is unlikely. There is just too much uncertainty at this point for me to invest the money to go all the way there. Geoff Mackley is already on route and I'll be in contact with him, I'll post his updates in this thread.

[Typhoon Hunter]

A ragged eye is now clearly visible on latest colour IR image.

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
NOVEMBER 28 2006 0233Z
.
11.4N 134.1E T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS DURIAN (23W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...10.9N 136.5E 27/1433Z IRNIGHT
10.2N 139.1E 27/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM HAD FINALLY PINCHED OFF A RAGGED EYE SO DT=4.0
BASED ON 1.1 WRAP. HELD FT TO 3.5 TO DEVELOP 0.5 OVER 6 HOURS.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 28/1000Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 011
WTPN31 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.8N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.6N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.4N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 132.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
BT


#0001
NNNN

Forecast track graphic

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 12.2N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 13.6N 126.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 301200UTC 13.6N 122.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 011200UTC 13.6N 118.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[cycloneye]

Infared Floater Image



It's a very impressive system in terms of the diameter and structure.

[P.K.]

[Chacor]

Infared Floater Image



It's a very impressive system in terms of the diameter and structure.

No kidding!

Latest T-no.s are 4.0/4.0. NRL now has it as a 65-kt typhoon.