Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Kennethb]

Thanks for the hads up on the football game. It will be fun to watch. Looks like the most Houston has gone between snow was 9 years.

[JenBayles]

This discussion from a local TV met puts it in pretty good perspective.

They say don't sweat the small stuff, but it's the small details that is making this week's forecast so difficult. The first problem is the timing of the cold front. Each forecast model has different ideas on when the cold front reaches Southeast Texas. The only safe thing to write is the front will cross the area sometime Thursday. The next item is just how much cold air the front brings with it. Search all of the forecast models and you'll get a different number each time. For now I'll put a light freeze into the area by Saturday morning, however if the air is as cold as a few of the models indicate, then those 30 numbers will be replaced by 20?s. The next problem is the setup of an overrunning condition by the end of the weekend and if there'll be another shot of cold air Monday. I'll address those concerns later in the week.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

One thing that leads me to believe JB may be right about this very cold early December pattern is the fact that he called for all this snow in Seattle (which they are currently getting and got last night too) many days in advance. At the point he called for it, the Seattle NWS office still was just saying "rain".

BTW, to see some of the snow going on there right now...check out the packers vs. seahawks game on ESPN.

Oh man, you're not kidding!! I just turned on the game. Looks like it's being played in Green Bay instead of Seattle!!!

I just turned it on and had to do a double take. Kind of reminds me of that Thanksgiving game in Dallas a few years ago where they had snow.

[Portastorm]

Hah! Wasn't that the Leon Lett Bowl, when he tried picking up a loose ball and it ended up in the end zone?!

Anyhow ... I just looked at the 12z Euro run. It's colder for early next week for us in Texas with an increasing moisture column. While we might see some light overrunning post-frontal precip in north Texas with this week's front ... I'm starting to get jazzed about early next week!

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing that leads me to believe JB may be right about this very cold early December pattern is the fact that he called for all this snow in Seattle (which they are currently getting and got last night too) many days in advance. At the point he called for it, the Seattle NWS office still was just saying "rain".

BTW, to see some of the snow going on there right now...check out the packers vs. seahawks game on ESPN.

Oh man, you're not kidding!! I just turned on the game. Looks like it's being played in Green Bay instead of Seattle!!!

I just turned it on and had to do a double take. Kind of reminds me of that Thanksgiving game in Dallas a few years ago where they had snow.

I think that was 2001 right? Looks like Dallas may have a similar event to that one just about 5 years later (and 2 days later) with another mix likely there on Thursday afternoon. If they do get that mix on Thursday, then I believe it will be the first November winter weather in the city since that 2001 event.

During that 2001 event Dallas had a high of 36F one day (similar to what they are expecting Thursday). What is noteworthy of that is that during that same period, Houston had a two day stretch of highs in the middle 40s. Makes me wonder if we could be looking at a similar situation this time, and may be the NWS in Houston really is forecasting too warm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hah! Wasn't that the Leon Lett Bowl, when he tried picking up a loose ball and it ended up in the end zone?!

Anyhow ... I just looked at the 12z Euro run. It's colder for early next week for us in Texas with an increasing moisture column. While we might see some light overrunning post-frontal precip in north Texas with this week's front ... I'm starting to get jazzed about early next week!

yeah same here...I am beginning to think this front coming Thursday will only be a pratice run for what will come a few days later.

BTW (as an update to last night's posts): That 1054mb high in Canada yesterday has weakened down to 1044mb tonight. It is now right in line with the models. Of course, there will still likely be fluctiuations in it's strength over the next few days though. so stay tuned...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the weather.com forecast for north Houston for Thursday!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 9?dayNum=3

This is somewhat amazing in the following ways:

-It shows a 40F temperature drop during the day on Thursday.
-It shows rain mixed with 32F temps. Thursday night (hmm...).
-It is colder for overnight hours than the NWS.

[Opal storm]

Check out the weather.com forecast for north Houston for Thursday!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 9?dayNum=3

This is somewhat amazing in the following ways:

-It shows a 40F temperature drop during the day on Thursday.
-It shows rain mixed with 32F temps. Thursday night (hmm...).
-It is colder for overnight hours than the NWS.

If that forecast verifies you'll at least get some sleet pellets or some sort of wintery mix.I really doubt it will stay in the form of rain with temps dropping into the 30's.I remember a few years ago here in Pensacola TWC was forecasting something similar to that and it ended up sleeting all night even though they said it would just be rain.

[JonathanBelles]

how far east do you guys think the cold will get?

[boca]

It won't make it to Florida because the upper level pattern is zonal so highs in the low 80's lows in the upper 60's. Welcome to Florida.

[JonathanBelles]

i know that but will it moderate the temps here by say 10-20 degress?

[Extremeweatherguy]

i know that but will it moderate the temps here by say 10-20 degress?

this cold blast will mainly be aimed down the plains with less impact to the east, so do not expect anything near as cold as what you guys saw last week. However, with that said, there may be a slight cool down next weekend with highs back down into the middle 70s for you guys..so at least a little bit of relief from the 80F heat of the coming days.

[JonathanBelles]

it really has felt like 80 more like 70 so a coold down would be good.

[boca]

This is from the NWS in Tampa. It doesn't look promising for a cool down.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EST MON NOV 27 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ALSO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST ABOVE 80H WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP MOISTURE
BELOW...WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
FA...AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND MOVING ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. WITH STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THESE FEATURES ON
THURSDAY...SO WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE
THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM
ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS SHOWING
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING ABLE TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. STILL SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THE STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR 20-30 POPS. IN
ADDITION...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND LEAVES A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WHEREAS THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES EACH DAY HAVE COME INTO FOCUS BETTER...WITH THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY STILL SATURDAY MORNING...DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT GETS BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE QUICKER TODAY THAN AT THIS
POINT YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...BASES ARE ABOVE 3 KFT...SO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST
RESTRICTIONS THERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS THICK ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT WAS THIS MORNING...SO DO NOT WANT TO GO TO STRONG WITH
THE RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH THE LOW END OF THE
MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO DROP SCEC OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY INCREASE JUST ENOUGH FOR SCEC
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AFTERNOON
MIN RH ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 63 82 65 81 / 5 5 10 10
FMY 63 81 65 81 / 5 5 10 10
GIF 62 82 64 82 / 5 5 10 10
SRQ 62 82 64 83 / 5 5 10 10
BKV 57 80 61 82 / 5 5 10 10
SPG 65 79 67 80 / 5 5 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, take a look at Conroe's forecast for Thursday:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 6?dayNum=3

29F with rain? If that verifies than the wording may soon have to be changed to "freezing rain".


Also, take a look at this weather.com forecast for Waco:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 3?dayNum=3

that is pretty darn close to be seeing the forecast of "snow".

[double D]

Hah! Wasn't that the Leon Lett Bowl, when he tried picking up a loose ball and it ended up in the end zone?!

Anyhow ... I just looked at the 12z Euro run. It's colder for early next week for us in Texas with an increasing moisture column. While we might see some light overrunning post-frontal precip in north Texas with this week's front ... I'm starting to get jazzed about early next week!

yeah same here...I am beginning to think this front coming Thursday will only be a pratice run for what will come a few days later.

BTW (as an update to last night's posts): That 1054mb high in Canada yesterday has weakened down to 1044mb tonight. It is now right in line with the models. Of course, there will still likely be fluctiuations in it's strength over the next few days though. so stay tuned...

This air should really help cool the ground off and if we happen to get some type of winter precipitation, could we be talking about accumulations?

Also the San Angelo NWS is being just as aggressive as the Dallas NWS on the cold. It sure is going to be interesting to see if Austin and Houston will jump on board or keep the status quo.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS is trending back colder with this front, and it is still showing cold air and precip. mixing around Houston Friday morning (possible winter precip?):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^Winter precip. widespread in NE Texas and possibly mixed in further south.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml
^^Friday around midnight..some winter precip. near Houston?^^

The model then moves the coldest air out, but the shallow cold airmass remains with two nights near or below freezing (Fri. morning and Sat. morning) and a chilly Friday afternoon (0Z run showing 40s on Friday afternoon).

Then at 108 hrs, the model brings another polar high down and the cold air begins to try and spill back in:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml


The crucial factor in where winter precip. occurs will be the exact location and movement of the low pressure system. Currently it looks like it will move through Oklahoma (keeping most of the action to our north), but if it does manage to be further south...then so will be the weather. The further south this low is, the better the chances of winter weather in parts of TX.

The model is not done updating yet though, so beyond hr. 108 is still a mystery. However, as it loads, you can get the latest here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[aggiecutter]

The 12Z EURO has 1046mb high parked over Texas next Monday. The cold air will be in place, not sure about the precip this far out, though. Look for another arctic blast the end of next week into the weekend.---see long range ENSEMBLES on other thread.

12Z EURO:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS then really brings back the cold Sunday with dropping thickness levels and below freezing 850mb temps. for many areas. With colder upper-level conditions, it will not take as much cold to get winter weather, so we will have to watch closely for any precipitation:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

by looking at those models is there a way to tell if it is rain or snow?