Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

Johnny · #221 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:07 pm

Actually when I checked out Cut Bank this morning they were sitting at -17 degrees. Grand Rapids was at -18 but is now sitting at -10 degrees. They have warmed up a little bit....if you want to call it that.lol

Extremeweatherguy · #222 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:08 pm

looks like north Texas has gone from "little to no accumulation expected" yesterday to 1-3" today. Seems like this could now be a pretty significant storm since the winter storm watches are up. 3" of ice and snow in November in north Texas would be an extremely unusual event.

#223 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:11 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:looks like north Texas has gone from "little to no accumulation expected" yesterday to 1-3" today. Seems like this could now be a pretty significant storm since the winter storm watches are up. 3" of ice and snow in November in north Texas would be an extremely unusual event.

Last time in November was Thanksgiving 93' when we got the unexpected 3+ inches of sleet and light snow across much of the D/FW area. Remember the Dallas vs Miami game?

#224 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:16 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:looks like north Texas has gone from "little to no accumulation expected" yesterday to 1-3" today. Seems like this could now be a pretty significant storm since the winter storm watches are up. 3" of ice and snow in November in north Texas would be an extremely unusual event.

Last time in November was Thanksgiving 93' when we got the unexpected 3+ inches of sleet and light snow across much of the D/FW area.

I remember that day (and the "Leon Lett" bowl) very well. Temps in Lubbock were ~40 degrees below normal. I took a picture of the TV with TWC forecast on it. One day it showed 53/77F/Windy and the next day 25/26F/Ice. I think the actuals on day 2 were even colder than that.

Hard to believe it was 13 years ago - seems like yesterday.

#225 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:17 pm

San Angelo NWSFO is also hoisting the Winter Storm Watch flag. Here is an excerpt from their AFD:

".LONG TERM...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CRASHES SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN 30/00Z AND 30/09Z. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA...TO
READINGS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CFWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ALSO...STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY IN THE 30S OR EVEN FALL A FEW DEGREES. NOW...THE WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MANY FACTORS COMING INTO PLAY FOR A LIGHT WINTER
PCPN EVENT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG WITH 950-550 MB
FRONTALGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 30/06Z AND 30/18Z AND
RRQ QUAD OF 300 MB JET WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PCPN. NAM
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINLY SUPPORT FZRA/FZZL ACROSS THIS
AREA...MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH THE HELP OF MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ROBBING GOOD RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE COLD
SECTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN LIGHT FREEZING PCPN WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR
THE BIG COUNTRY...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. "

cctxhurricanewatcher · #226 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:19 pm

NWS numbers for Texas from Austin southward are going to crash like Enron stock if it is in the negative teens at this hour in Montana. Katie the barn door because it will be in the 40's in Brownsville on Friday. They are forecasting 60's right now.

Think about how cold it could get if this front came around Christmas time with alot more snow pack and colder ground ahead of it.

Johnny · #227 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:28 pm

From the Amarillo office...

.DISCUSSION...
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND CONTINUES TO BE
AHEAD OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE.

Extremeweatherguy · #228 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:29 pm

Latest NWS forecast for the Houston area is coming in...and it has trended downward! They are now going with about 33F (meaning right around the freezing point) tomorrow night north of I-10 with a 20% chance of rain showers. Their discussion is not in yet though, so I will have more later on once it is. Interesting sounding situation though..

At the very least it will be COLD! 30-33F with winds gusting to 20mph+ will mean windchills likely in the teens! :cold:

Extremeweatherguy · #229 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:31 pm

The forecast for Austin is also in and WOW! Tomorrow's high there has dropped a lot. They are now forecasting at high of 45F with a 70% chance of rain/storms and then a low below freezing there tomorrow night. Also, they now have Friday at 53F (down from their 61F predicted yesterday).

#230 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:36 pm

I don't understand the forecast for NTX counties not in the Winter Storm Watch. 70-80% wintry precip with freezing rain and sleet, then snow after 3pm. Yet no Winter Weather Advisory posted. Maybe they haven't gotten around to it?

Extremeweatherguy · #231 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:37 pm

gboudx wrote:I don't understand the forecast for NTX counties not in the Winter Storm Watch. 70-80% wintry precip with freezing rain and sleet, then snow after 3pm. Yet no Winter Weather Advisory posted. Maybe they haven't gotten around to it?

They are probably waiting to post those tomorrow (after they are more certain it will happen).

Extremeweatherguy · #232 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:39 pm

Also of note is that WACO now has a forecast of "wintery mix" for tomorrow afternoon. This morning their forecast was for just "rain" with a 10% chance of frz. rain tomorrow night. Now they are saying sleet and snow could mix.

#233 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:41 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT FORTUNATELY THE MODELS
HAVE MAINTAINED REASONABLY GOOD CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY.
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE
OFF AS AN INTENSE VORTICITY PACKET SWINGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN AND APPROACH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH
AND REACH THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW...WHILE A DRYLINE
BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS.

INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DYNAMIC FORCING BEGINS TO STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. WIND SHEER IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
CAPE/LCLS SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENING
IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
IN THE NW CWA BY 3 PM...WITH WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET.
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...STORMS WILL BE UNDERCUT...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH TOTALS.

MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND WE
HAVE BUMPED TIMING UP 3-6 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THAT LOW TEMPS
AREAWIDE WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM
FOR CONTINUED WET BULB COOLING DEPENDING ON AMOUNT/TIMING OF
PRECIP. WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY NOON FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA WILL BE POSSIBLE IF RAIN IS HEAVY ENOUGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO VARY
SLIGHTLY AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN DEEPER AND
SLOWER. THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GFS CLOSELY WHICH
AGREES WITH THE UKMET AND IS SLOWER THAN THE FAST NAM OUTLIER.
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME AND ROOM FOR CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST
THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT AMOUNT/TYPE/PLACEMENT OF WINTER PRECIP.

STRONG FORCING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS PROGS ALL
POINT TOWARD POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL HELP
COOL THE COLUMN...WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN
SNOW NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO EMORY LINE BY NOON TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
THE FACTORS THAT WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THIS EVENT ARE THE VERY
WARM GROUND TEMPS...THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE DRY
SLOT WHICH MOVES ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN SUMMARY...WE EXPECT
A COLD RAIN THURSDAY MORNING...BECOMING FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW 32...A QUICK SHOT OF SLEET/SNOW AS CORE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES OVER...AND ENDING WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING.

ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...WEATHERFORD...MCKINNEY...SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS WATCH MAY BE
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT...IF
MODELS TREND UPPER LOW SLOWER/SOUTHWARD. AT THE LEAST...WE DO
EXPECT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO CANTON...IT IS JUST TOO EARLY
AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONTINUED CHILLY WEATHER AS ANOTHER REINFORCING POLAR HIGH MOVES
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN FORESEEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

#234 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:43 pm

Alright, gotta give credit when it is due. :wink:

Austin/San Antonio NWSFO has issued what looks like a forecast well in line with its neighbors, existing model data, and prevailing thought. Well done and with 36 hours to spare!

Temps will drop here all day Thursday with a low of 29 Thursday night. Highs are better adjusted as well throughout the weekend.

Extremeweatherguy · #235 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:43 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO BRING A MIX OF COLD POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WED AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TX WED NIGHT AND THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE WED
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK MAY BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
LINEAR MCS FEATURE PER THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX EARLY THURS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME STRATIFORM IN NATURE AS TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THURS EVENING AS THE COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO EAST TX AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
COLD AIR AND THE 12Z GFS HINTING AT RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IT IS POSSIBLE A MIX OF FROZEN AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
THURS NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE NORTH. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...ADVECTIVELY DRIVEN THURSDAY
AND RADIATIONALLY DRIVEN FRIDAY. THE COLD AIRMASS ACROSS TEXAS
FRIDAY SHOULD MODIFY AND WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. REINFORCES THE COOLER AIR
ACROSS EAST TX SUNDAY AS IT BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 32

#236 Postby **wall_cloud** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:13 pm

gboudx wrote:I don't understand the forecast for NTX counties not in the Winter Storm Watch. 70-80% wintry precip with freezing rain and sleet, then snow after 3pm. Yet no Winter Weather Advisory posted. Maybe they haven't gotten around to it?

what counties are you talking about?

#237 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:29 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
gboudx wrote:I don't understand the forecast for NTX counties not in the Winter Storm Watch. 70-80% wintry precip with freezing rain and sleet, then snow after 3pm. Yet no Winter Weather Advisory posted. Maybe they haven't gotten around to it?

what counties are you talking about?

Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall. However, the AFD came out after I posted and they mentioned that the WSW could very well be extended south and east tomorrow. I jumped the gun.

#238 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:31 pm

Ok, let me get this straight. I am only a librarian and historian, so I am a little slow.

The front is moving faster than first thought. Yes or no? Second, because models have a hard time forecasting this type of weather, it could be even colder in the Houston area than first thought? Third, ( I am sure this will not happen!!) could this have the chance to be a significant ice event in the Houston metro area? I realize this is all speculation, but I am just curious.

Yankeegirl · #239 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:41 pm

Hi tireman, I remember you from KHOU!! Welcome!!

#240 Postby **Tireman4** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:44 pm

Well, thank you for the welcome. I really like this forum. All the meteorologists hang out here!!!!

Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

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