Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

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Extremeweatherguy
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#241 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:48 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Ok, let me get this straight. I am only a librarian and historian, so I am a little slow. :D The front is moving faster than first thought. Yes or no? Second, because models have a hard time forecasting this type of weather, it could be even colder in the Houston area than first thought? Third, ( I am sure this will not happen!!) could this have the chance to be a significant ice event in the Houston metro area? I realize this is all speculation, but I am just curious.


1.) yes, the front does look faster. It should now reach Houston by about mid to late morning Thursday (instead of Thursday afternoon).

2.) The numbers do look like they could be colder for Thursday than once thought, and Thursday night is looking colder too. However, Friday night is looking warmer at this point due to a light breeze that should not allow us to recieve a hard freeze. With that said though, there is always a chance that breeze may not be there and that the high will be closer to us, and if that happens a hard freeze may be back on (stay tuned).

3.) A significant ice storm looks very unlikely for the Houston metro, however, northern Houston counties could still see some sleet or freezing rain late tomorrow afternoon, but it should not amount to much. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a few sleet pellets down this way too, but likely nothing widespread or severe (unless there is a big change in the forecasts).

The more serious ice/snow should be in north TX.
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#242 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:51 pm

Thank you. Quick and to the point.
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#243 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:06 pm

"IN SUMMARY...WE EXPECT
A COLD RAIN THURSDAY MORNING...BECOMING FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS
FALL BELOW 32...A QUICK SHOT OF SLEET/SNOW AS CORE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES OVER...AND ENDING WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING."

I think the guys out of Fort Worth probably nailed this event for North Texas. I base that on past history as we have had an event such as this the past two or three Decembers. A quick, brief, intense change over, and it will be over. Some areas north of the metroplex might get an inch, but for the most part it will be a dusting on grassy areas or slush. The one ingredient that could change this is the intensity of the cold air and its timing. IF the front moves significantly faster than expected, then things could get really interesting, but I'm going to stay on the conservative side until I see where the front lies around noon tomorrow. Until then, everything will just be speculation, including all the forecast.
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#244 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:11 pm

http://www.click2houston.com/wxmap/710318/detail.html
Who wants to take bets on how badly channel 2's forecast will bust? :lol:

I mean what is this? They are even warmer than the NWS. No wonder people around town will likely not take this seriously. Everyone sees "70F" for Thursday and figures they will not need a jacket during the day (or even really long sleeves)...some people will be really surprised I bet.

Also what's up with 38F for Friday night? I do not see any indication at all that we will stay that warm...may be 33-35F, but not upper 30s.

I don't really understand why they are trying to mislead people like this?

On the other hand, the usual "warm-biased" station (ABC 13) is doing VERY WELL with their forecast. The "70F" may be misleading for Thursday, but other than that this is a good forecast through and through:
http://abclocal.go.com/three/ktrk/weath ... K_5DAY.jpg

KHOU.com (Chan. 11) is also doing a good job it seems:
http://www.khou.com/weather/index.html

Also, ABC13 and KHOU11 are both seeming to be picking up more on the cold shot this weekend. They both show cooler temps. (closer to the model reality) than what the NWS is showing. Also, KHOU is showing cloudier skies and cooler highs due to their idea of more clouds than the NWS is showing. Interesting next 5 days are ahead for sure..
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#245 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:29 pm

Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.
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#246 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:30 pm

LOL...

They are all within about 5 degrees of each other, yet you think one is being misleading...

You need to try and quit reading so much into a forecast that does not verify with your line of thinking.

Sadly a AFM sighting would be great right about now....
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#247 Postby JenBayles » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:33 pm

I NEVER watch Channel 2 weather - they use Accuweather, and AW always seems to screw up. Many times JB is on the mark, but too many times AW goes for the sensational solution, so I have learned to ignore them for the most part over the years.

All in all, we're gonna get cold and windy, and I suppose that's all I need to know. We've taken care of the three P's: pets, pipes, and plants, and that's all anyone can do. After that, I'll have fun watching how the various forecasters fare on accuracy. :lol:
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#248 Postby WhiteShirt » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:33 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


What would that mean for the Houston/Beamont area? Thanks.
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#249 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:39 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


What would that mean for the Houston/Beamont area? Thanks.
If it were right it would probably mean an icy/snowy mess for most of TX (including Houston). However, at 11 days out..I am not buying into it yet.
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#250 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:42 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:LOL...

They are all within about 5 degrees of each other, yet you think one is being misleading...

You need to try and quit reading so much into a forecast that does not verify with your line of thinking.

Sadly a AFM sighting would be great right about now....
It is channel 2's weekend idea which is the worst I think. On Saturday they show 62F, the NWS shows 58F, ABC13 shows 55F and KHOU11 shows 48F. That is a little bit more than a 5F difference from the other stations.

However, there is time to change, and I believe all the stations will likely find a middle point eventually. For now though it is funny to see the extremes from all the stations. NBC is showing delightful (slightly cool) fall-like weather in the 60s, ABC13 is showing chilly weather that requires a jacket in the 50s, and KHOU is showing downright cold (pull out the gloves!) weather with highs in the 40s for Saturday.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#251 Postby WhiteShirt » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
WhiteShirt wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


What would that mean for the Houston/Beamont area? Thanks.
If it were right it would probably mean an icy/snowy mess for most of TX (including Houston). However, at 11 days out..I am not buying into it yet.


I wouldn't mind an icy/snowy mess at all. How long has this model been showing this? Are other models saying the same thing?
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#252 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:46 pm

WhiteShirt wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
WhiteShirt wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


What would that mean for the Houston/Beamont area? Thanks.
If it were right it would probably mean an icy/snowy mess for most of TX (including Houston). However, at 11 days out..I am not buying into it yet.


I wouldn't mind an icy/snowy mess at all. How long has this model been showing this? Are other models saying the same thing?
It has been showing it for a few runs now (I think either starting yesterday or Sunday), but as we have seen before that doesn't mean it is a definite. If this same scenario can show itself in the day 6-7 range, then we may need to look at it much more carefully though. The other models do not really forecast out to that range, so I cannot tell you if they are picking up on it yet, but once (and IF) we get into the day 7 range, then many other models will become available.
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#253 Postby Brent » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


276 hours? 11 days out? You should know better by now.
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#254 Postby JenBayles » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:03 pm

Brent wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


276 hours? 11 days out? You should know better by now.


As I said on another thread: What the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away! :lol:

But it IS fun watching the GFS twist around on itself, yes? :D
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#255 Postby jasons2k » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:22 pm

Maybe Channel 2 changed things since earlier?

I see the following:

70 on Thursday - seems reasonable to me before the front comes in, unless it hits at daybreak
36 on Thursday night - still pretty reasonable, maybe a tad warm though
56 on Friday - NWS says 55 for IAH
33 Sat AM - same as NWS for IAH
62 Sat - NWS says 59 for IAH - if cold air moves out fast enough either case is feasible

FWIW I don't know what site the KPRC numbers are for. The numbers are probably a little higher than IAH and a little lower (at least at night) than Hobby - somewhere in the middle is about right for "Houston" as a whole and the viewing audience....
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#256 Postby double D » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:24 pm

JenBayles wrote:
Brent wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


276 hours? 11 days out? You should know better by now.


As I said on another thread: What the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away! :lol:

But it IS fun watching the GFS twist around on itself, yes? :D


Plus it's the 18z run of the GFS. (which always gets a bad rap)
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#257 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:38 pm

jschlitz wrote:Maybe Channel 2 changed things since earlier?

I see the following:

70 on Thursday - seems reasonable to me before the front comes in, unless it hits at daybreak
36 on Thursday night - still pretty reasonable, maybe a tad warm though
56 on Friday - NWS says 55 for IAH
33 Sat AM - same as NWS for IAH
62 Sat - NWS says 59 for IAH - if cold air moves out fast enough either case is feasible

FWIW I don't know what site the KPRC numbers are for. The numbers are probably a little higher than IAH and a little lower (at least at night) than Hobby - somewhere in the middle is about right for "Houston" as a whole and the viewing audience....
ohh!!! The reason I must have messed up is because I thought the low numbers under each day were the morning temperatures, not the overnight numbers. So 33 for Friday night is actually an ok forecast (I thought it was showing 38). Still though, I think those high temps. are too warm. If you look at the models and surrounding NWS offices thinkings (as well as our own), you can see that numbers in the 60s are likely too warm for Houston this weekend. In fact, the NWS forecast of upper 50s is likely too warm and will likely later be adjusted downward. We shall see..

ATM though, I like the ABC13 and KHOU11 forecast better.
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#258 Postby double D » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:38 pm

Hmm... intersting discussion going on in the KHOU weather forums. A Pro met (Dan Meador, I think that is his real name) is scratching his head over the NWS forecast especailly for the weekend. He states that the NAM is showing overcast and the GFS is showing mostly cloudy skies to partly cloudy for the weekend. NWS has clear skies for the weekend. Seems like everyone is a little confused on what the next few days are going to bring. :roll:
Last edited by double D on Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#259 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:39 pm

double D wrote:
JenBayles wrote:
Brent wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Also, not this weekend, but next, the GFS is STILL showing the potential for a major TX winter storm:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This has been a trend for many runs now, but since it is still far out I will not buy into it yet.


276 hours? 11 days out? You should know better by now.


As I said on another thread: What the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away! :lol:

But it IS fun watching the GFS twist around on itself, yes? :D


Plus it's the 18z run of the GFS. (which always gets a bad rap)
yeah I know, this will likely never play out, but for now it is fun to look at.
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#260 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:42 pm

Image

Image

Image
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