SW Indian Ocean: Moderate TS Anita (JTWC: TC 03S)

[Chacor]

Perturbation tropicale 02R has formed and is expected to become a TD before probably landfall in Mozambique or recurving into waters between mainland Africa and Madagascar.

Here's the 12:30 UTC bulletin, if you can read French:

BULLETIN DU 27 NOVEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1005 HPA.
POSITION LE 27 NOVEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 7.7 SUD / 46.7 EST
(SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-SIX DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1735 KM AU NORD-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 12 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 9.1S/44.9E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.1S/43E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 11.1S/42.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 04 H DEMAIN MATIN.

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 271207

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2006/11/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E
(SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/11/28 00 UTC: 08.4S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW
IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE
WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE TO RA
THER STRONG. HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND
AFRICAN COASTLINE.
RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
..

[P.K.]

Moderate TS now forecast at T+48 as of the 0000 GMT update.

[Chacor]

Heating up now, Severe Tropical Storm called for in 72 hours. A Tropical Depression is expected later tonight.

BULLETIN DU 28 NOVEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 9.1 SUD / 45.6 EST
(NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1675 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 9.7S/43.3E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.6S/41.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.3S/40.7E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
CE BULLETIN SERA REACTUALISE A 16 H CET APRES-MIDI

[Meso]

Hrm, This one looks to come pretty close to South Africa,as as starts making a more southerly course near 72 hours.. I`m guessing they`ll issue graphics when it becomes a depression?

[Chacor]

There already are graphics... here's the latest (12Z, which no longer calls for a Severe TS):

[HURAKAN]

Looking at least like a TD already!!!

[Meso]

Any more updates on this ? :p Not good at navigating sites in french =) and That url two posts above doesn't work,that site has been down all day :/

[Chacor]

About to make landfall and become an overland depression.

[P.K.]

It is forecast to move overland and dissipate as in the above image.

[Chacor]

NRL now has 03S.NONAME.

Météo France no longer call for landfall.

[Chacor]

85 kt is forecast.

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212351Z NOV 06//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.2S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.8S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 41.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATE
INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND STRONGLY UPON TRACK.
IF THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD MOVE ASHORE AND DISSIPATE. THIS POSSIBILITY IS PRESENTED
AS AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 282351Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 290000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND
301500Z.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

First TD of the season.

BULLETIN DU 29 NOVEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 29 NOVEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.1 SUD / 41.8 EST
(ONZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1810 KM AU NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 11 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.2S/41.3E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 16.3S/40.6E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19S/40.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
CE BULLETIN SERA ACTUALISE VERS 04H30 LOCALES

[HurricaneBill]

The first name will be "Anita".

[P.K.]

Moderate Tropical Storm Anita has just be named with 35kt winds (995hPa).