Early December coastal?

[sphinx]

FWIW, the 00 and 12 UT runs of the GGEM (Canadian) model show a coastal low affecting the Mid-Atlantic and New England early next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html

DGEX shows a similar feature as do a few of the GFS ensembles.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpl ... day.conus/

The operational GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS do not show a coastal.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Interesting.

I've noticed on our 14 day outlook, that on December 6th there is an indication of a chance of snow. Way to early of coures too tell exactly how this will, or will not, play out yet though.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 02 2006 - 12Z WED DEC 06 2006

A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACRS NOAM THRU THE
UPCOMING 3-7 DAY PERIOD. A MEAN RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FAR
ERN PAC AND INTO WRN NOAM...WHILE MEAN TROF IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM
OVR THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLITUDE OF
THIS MEAN TROF. THE FIRST OCCURS SUN-TUE WITH THE DEGREE OF
AMPLIFICATION OF HT FALLS THAT ARE FCST TO DIVE SEWD INTO THE BASE
OF THE MEAN TROF SAT/SUN OVR THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION...AND
THEN EJECT NEWD INTO THE ERN U.S. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST OF
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THESE HT FALLS AND HAD A MORE VIGOROUS
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATL LATE SUN/MON...WITH A DEEPER
LOW POSSIBLY AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND. WE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLN GIVEN THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN PATTERN AND RECENT
GFS VERIFICATION WHICH HAS SHOWN IT TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEMS EXITING MEAN TROF PSN.

THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN TROF IS TOWARD
THE END OF THE MED RANGE PERIOD ACRS THE MID SECTION OF THE
NATION. WITH THE WRN NOAM RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AMPLIFIED...EXPECT ADDITIONAL HT FALLS DROPPING SEWD ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TO HELP PUSH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SWD.
HOWEVER..THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS BY TUE-WED (DAY 6-7)
IS LOW. WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HERE. THIS FIT IN FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 0000 UTC EC...BUT NOT WITH
THE 1200 UTC EC WHICH IS SHOWING SOME BIG CHANGES UPSTREAM IN THE
HANDLING OF NERN PAC HT FALLS. THE LATEST EC RUN BRINGS SGFNT HT
FALLS INLAND EARLY TUE (DAY 6) INTO THE PAC NW AND PUSHES THEM EWD
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY WED (DAY 7). THIS EFFECTS THE OVERALL
FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL NOAM AND DOES NOT ALLOW AS MUCH N-S FLOW
INTO THE MEAN TROF. SINCE THESE NEW EC HT FALLS ARE MOVG THRU THE
MEAN RIDGE PSN AND AMPLIFYING AS THEY MOVE THRU THE MEAN WRN RIDGE
PSN...WE ARE NOT FOLLOWING ITS LEAD...LIKING ITS 0000 UTC SOLN
BETTER. THE 1200 UTC CMC IS NOT SUPPORTING THIS 12Z EC
SOLN...SHOWING MUCH MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW AS PER THE GFS.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[wall_cloud]

it sounds like a good bet with this potent trof approaching the east coast. There will be a strong thermal gradient in place with the cold air over land and the warm Gulf stream. Add the dynamics and nearly couple jet signature and WHAM!

cyclogenesis ===> Nor'easter

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yep. Nor'Easter Winter's hurricane, as it is often called in this part of the World.

[wall_cloud]

only problem is that the low may be a bit too far west. Not sure about the model bais on this situation since I don't forecast for the NE, but its worth noting.

[JenBayles]

Here's what residential Seattle looked like this week after the same front blew through with an unusual snow storm. My friend Vicki just sent this to me and says she's been working from home because of all the car crashes up there. She says it's like being back in Houston during one of our rare snow events. (Click pic for larger view)