Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[JenBayles]

My friend Vicki recently moved to Seattle and sent this pic of her street after this front dumped snow up there. She says it's just like Houston when we get one of our rare ice events - car crashes everywhere!
(click pic for larger view)

[jasons2k]

Ever so closer - almost to Alliance Airport:

[gboudx]

Denton Municipal still holding at 78. Front not quite there yet.

[jasons2k]

its 16 degrees in Boise City, OK

Even though that's the panhandle that's still scary for this time of day. maybe EWG will get his wish at this rate

[jasons2k]

Denton Municipal still holding at 78. Front not quite there yet.

That's from last hour, give it a few minutes to update, Haslet and Saginaw have shifted to the NW

[jasons2k]

Just now updated; it's 57 in Denton

[gboudx]

Denton Municipal still holding at 78. Front not quite there yet.

That's from last hour, give it a few minutes to update, Haslet and Saginaw have shifted to the NW

Yeah, I realized that soon after I posted. On Weatherbug, Denton and Ft. Worth Municipal Airports don't seem to be updating for the past 20-30 mins.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just saw this on the KHOU.com weather discussion board:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

and it does look interesting Thursday evening/Friday morning if this is right. Looks like the latest GFS run is seeing the dynamics in place for some sleet/snow to even make it down here! I'm still skeptical, but this does boost my idea of a few sleet pellets by a lot.

We shall see..

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm...

for those of you in Austin, this looks interesting!

SLEET ADVISORY has been issued just NW of the city:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 2&site=ewx

Also, Austin is under a FREEZE WARNING from 10pm tomorrow through 9am Friday.

[Portastorm]

Hmmm is right. I live about 1 mile from the Travis/Williamson County border.

Maybe I might see some frozen stuff after all?!

[Johnny]

Yep, the freezing precipitation for tomorrow keeps moving farther and farther to the south.

[Extremeweatherguy]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
458 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

...LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A DRAMATIC DROP
IN TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF SLEET EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS COULD PRECEED
THIS POTENTIAL SLEET EVENT AND RESULT IN SOME ICE FALLING IN THE
FORM OF HAIL. THE SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...BUT A FEW
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME THREATENED IF ENOUGH SLEET
FALLS AT ONE TIME

[JenBayles]

My 85-year-old MIL lives in Wimberley and still thinks her driving skills are just fine, thank you very much. If anyone lives out there, rest assured we'll try to keep her OFF the roads tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Alliance just dropped from 78F to 55F

5:15 - make that 52F

[Johnny]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
512 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUMMARY SECTION OF THIS AFD SAYS IT ALL. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF THREATENING WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS PAYBACK FOR ALL THE ABOVE NORMAL
DAYS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS...
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND LAST BUT
CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...A SLEET ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN AMID ALL OF THESE THREATS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS AND LATEST TRENDS OF THE FRONT
REVEALED AN ACCELERATING FRONT TO SIGNAL THE FIRST POTENTIAL ICE
EVENT FOR THE SEASON. THE SLEET ADVISORY ASSUMES ALL AREAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THAT ICE ACCUMULATION ONLY OCCURS ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE HEAVIER SLEET SHOWERS DEVELOP. THE
NAM/WRF SUGGEST DRIER AIR INTRUDING ON THE HEELS OF THE MOIST
FRONTAL INVERSION TO ENHANCE ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS.
LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THE BEST THREAT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE COLD LAYER WAS FOR SLEET. SOME SLEET
COULD BE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AUS METRO AREA...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE SAT METRO AREA, BUT DELAYED COOLING SHOULD PRECLUDE
ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL PRECIPIATION RATES WOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO BE
SIGNIFICANT.

THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY FOR HAIL...BUT AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH ALL ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR STRONG WIND...
TORNADOES...AND HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL FOCUS EAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
CAMPBELLTON LINE.

AFTER THE WINDS DIE DOWN THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOULD NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. EXPECT
LESS DRAMA TO ACCOMPANY FUTURE FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE ONE CONCERN FOR THESE FRONTS WILL BE FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE EVENTS, THOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST COLD
ENOUGH AIR FOR THESE THREATS. WILL FOLLOW THE REASONABLE GFS ON
THESE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS.

[Johnny]

Well Portastorm, it looks like frozen precip and possible snow flurries for your area is a good possibility. I just want to see some snow flurries. I don't care if it sticks or not!

[Portastorm]

Yup, it could get interesting tomorrow morning. My skeptical outlook is being warmed by all of this "sleet" talk!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! They are saying sleet is even possible to san antonio! With that said...I now thinks Houston's chances go way up too! I will be watching that rain/ice/snow line VERY CAREFULLY tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

About to head home - here is a wider shot with temps:

[JenBayles]

wow! They are saying sleet is even possible to san antonio! With that said...I now thinks Houston's chances go way up too! I will be watching that rain/ice/snow line VERY CAREFULLY tomorrow.

I wouldn't get too excited about that just yet. Maybe outlying northern areas, but Houston proper? I'll believe it when I see it.