Well I'll be a...........

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Sun Nov 26, 2006 4:44 pm

Well I'll be.......

Looky what we have here 8-)

and NO....I'm NOT eating my shorts YET, if this pattern keeps up by January then YES, as I promised :lol:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 AM MST SUN NOV 26 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-271200-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
800 AM MST SUN NOV 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500
FEET IN THE NORTHWEST AND 6000 FEET OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND BLACK MESA.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (2500-3500 FEET) AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD A HARD FREEZE THIS FALL WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
EXPERIENCE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS BY MID WEEK.

azsnowman · #2 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 7:12 am

Talk about a change in the WEATHER :eek:

We went from record breaking highs just a week ago to a ARTIC blast :eek:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 271044 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 300 AM MST MON NOV 27 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE INTO WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM DO NOT BELIEVE DURATION OR AREAL EXTENT OF WINDS WILL WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. THE FIRST S/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRINGING INCREASING DYNAMICS AND MODERATE OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STABLE SINCE AZ WILL REMAIN ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE POLAR JET. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BUT CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER. CONSEQUENTLY...MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES WILL BE LIMITED AND PCPN WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN. SECOND S/W TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER DEEPENS. COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DYNAMICS AND OROGRAPHICS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 6000 FEET IN THE NORTH AND NEAR 7000 FEET OVER THE WHITE MTNS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND LCR VALLEY. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POLAR JET BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD AND MUCH OF NRN AZ WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. AS THE JET SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AND LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION. DIVQ FIELDS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 2000 FEET IN THE NORTH AND 4000 FEET IN THE SOUTH.

azsnowman · #3 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:30 pm

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 271652 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 950 AM MST MON NOV 27 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK. &&

.DISCUSSION... A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OF THE SEASON FOR NORTHERN AZ. THIS MORNING...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DUE STABLE AND DRY AIR FOUND ABOVE 10000 FEET ELEVATION LIMITING PRECIPITATION MICROPHYSICAL EFFICIENCY.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED...AGAIN WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND PRECIPITATION MICROPHYSICS. BY TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHEASTWARD...AND WILL BE CONSIDERING ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A STRONGER VORTICITY CENTER...DEEPER MOISTURE...AND MORE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES DEVELOP...AT LEAST IN THE GFS MODEL. OROGRAPHICS WILL BE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR 700 MB. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY TRICKY EARLY ON...AS THE POOR MICROPHYSICAL SOUNDINGS CAN ALSO LEAD TO DRIZZLE WHEN OTHERWISE SNOW MIGHT BE EXPECTED...HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND AS LOW AS 4000 FEET SOUTH OF THE RIM AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. UNTIL THEN...LOOK FOR ANY SNOW TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET

bob rulz · #4 Postby **bob rulz** » Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:36 pm

We'll be getting some significant snow up here, as well, starting tonight.

Best of luck in getting snow!

azsnowman · #5 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:19 pm

No WONDER everyone's getting sick around here....we went from record breaking temps last weeks to THIS :eek:

and BTW....it's SNOWING as I'm posting this :ggreen:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Wind Advisory
Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: November 28, 2006 08:49:39 MST

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Snow level around 6500 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph increasing to 45 mph in the afternoon. Highs 35 to 43 above 7000 feet...41 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Tonight: Chance of snow and rain showers in the evening...then snow showers likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the evening. Lows around 20 above 7000 feet...around 26 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Colder. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Highs 23 to 33 above 7000 feet...30 to 40 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. A 10 percent chance of snow showers in the evening. North winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Lows around 7 above 7000 feet...around 12 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Highs 29 to 35 above 7000 feet...35 to 41 below 7000 feet.

Thursday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 9 above 7000 feet.. Around 15 below 7000 feet.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Not as cool. Highs 38 to 44 above 7000 feet...45 to 51 below 7000 feet.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 14 above 7000 feet.. Around 19 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...44 to 52 below 7000 feet.

Saturday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 14 above 7000 feet.. Around 19 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 36 to 44 above 7000 feet...44 to 52 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 14 above 7000 feet.. Around 19 below 7000 feet.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet.

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:21 pm

Hey, glad you're getting yer snow now!!

JenBayles · #7 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:56 pm

OK, I've been holding off on this question for a while, but have to ask: azsnowman, are you bringing in that brass monkey of yours now? :lol:

azsnowman · #8 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:23 pm

JenBayles wrote:OK, I've been holding off on this question for a while, but have to ask: azsnowman, are you bringing in that brass monkey of yours now?

ABSOULETLY 8-)

Cuz as they say, "It's so cold, it'll freeze the b***s off a brass monkey" and with THOSE forecast temps, you'd better BELIEVE it would :lol:

azsnowman · #9 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:04 pm

Snow accumulations upped :ggreen:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Forecast for White Mountains Show | Hide

Updated: 3:49 PM MST on November 28, 2006
Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM MST this evening...
Tonight
Chance of snow and rain showers in the evening...then snow showers and chance of rain showers after midnight. Snow level around 6500 feet. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the evening. Lows 17 to 23 above 7000 feet...around 26 below 7000 feet.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely in the morning...then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulation 4 to 8 inches. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Highs 23 to 31 above 7000 feet...29 to 37 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent.
» ZIP Code Detail

azsnowman · #10 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:12 pm

Snow's just now starting to pick up in earnest as I post this....if this keeps up most of the night I can see 12" or more....I'm NOT getting my hopes up TOO high just yet although the latest AFD sounds pretty darn good! :ggreen:

rsdoug1981 · #11 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:33 pm

Congrats, azsnowman! What's your elevation, btw?

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:50 pm

you know what...I ban you from here foreward from receiving snow until coastal NC receives a bunch of snow

enjoy it! lucky

azsnowman · #13 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:23 pm

rsdoug1981 wrote:Congrats, azsnowman! What's your elevation, btw?

I'm at 7102' at the house, a short 18 miles to my east it goes up rapidly to 10,500'. Take a map out, find Phoenix, I'm 180 NE of there, 54 miles from the New Mexico border.

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:23 pm

azsnowman wrote:
rsdoug1981 wrote:Congrats, azsnowman! What's your elevation, btw?

I'm at 7102' at the house, a short 18 miles to my east it goes up rapidly to 10,500'. Take a map out, find Phoenix, I'm 180 NE of there, 54 miles from the New Mexico border.

thanks for directions, I'll be there for the winter party!

bob rulz · #15 Postby **bob rulz** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 2:02 am

Hope you fared better than I did. I've only gotten about 2 inches, although lake-effect is expected tonight (an additional 2-6 inches). How much do you have now?

azsnowman · #16 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:17 am

Same here bob....actually, just a hair under 2" but HEY, that's MORE than we got ALL last winter (with the exception of the March Blizzard when 42" fell in a 36 hour period! :eek:

)....so let's HOPE this trend keeps up! :ggreen:

azsnowman · #17 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:20 am

Looks like I'll need to break out my shorts again come Friday......"NOT!" :ggreen:

Check out THESE temps :eek:

Heck, who knows, with the lows on Thurs and Friday night maybe I'll have a neighborhood BBQ, Hawiian Themed maybe, roast a pig on the spit? 8-)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: November 29, 2006 03:17:23 MST

Today: Numerous snow showers in the morning...then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Highs 23 to 31 above 7000 feet...30 to 38 below 7000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A 10 percent chance of snow showers. North winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the evening. Lows around 7 above 7000 feet...around 13 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the morning becoming light. Highs around 32 above 7000 feet...around 38 below 7000 feet.

Thursday night: Mostly clear. Light and variable winds. Lows around 6 above 7000 feet...around 12 below 7000 feet.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Not as cool. Light and variable winds. Highs around 44 above 7000 feet...around 49 below 7000 feet.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 11 above 7000 feet.. Around 16 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 40 to 46 above 7000 feet...45 to 53 below 7000 feet.

Saturday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 13 above 7000 feet.. Around 18 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 40 to 46 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 15 above 7000 feet.. Around 20 below 7000 feet.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42 to 48 above 7000 feet...48 to 54 below 7000 feet.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 17 above 7000 feet.. Around 22 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 43 to 49 above 7000 feet...around 51 below 7000 feet.

bob rulz · #18 Postby **bob rulz** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:39 pm

azsnowman wrote:Same here bob....actually, just a hair under 2" but HEY, that's MORE than we got ALL last winter (with the exception of the March Blizzard when 42" fell in a 36 hour period! )....so let's HOPE this trend keeps up!

Congrats on the snow. Hope this winter fares better than the last. :wink:

Ended up with 6 inches here.

azsnowman · #19 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:04 pm

WELL.....I posted the total TOO early too :ggreen:

We TOO wound up with 6"...it snowed SO hard from 0845 this morning till 1300, I mean you could NOT see :ggreen:

AND....the HIGH for today you ask? A BALMY 21° with a N breeze of 18 MPH...don't know what the wind chill was but DANG......

azsnowman · #20 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 6:21 pm

The temp at 1620 hrs MST is NOW down to 9° with ANOTHER Snow band moving down into the valley where I live AND.........the WIND is crankin' to 21 MPH out of the NW :eek:

Well I'll be a...........

Well I'll be a...........

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