Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! They are saying sleet is even possible to san antonio! With that said...I now thinks Houston's chances go way up too! I will be watching that rain/ice/snow line VERY CAREFULLY tomorrow.

I wouldn't get too excited about that just yet. Maybe outlying northern areas, but Houston proper? I'll believe it when I see it.

probably not downtown Houston, but up in Spring I think the chances have gone up. If it happens in San Antonio, then I think there is a decent chance it happens here too.

We should get a better idea tomorrow though when the Houston NWS is hopefully back online. At the very least I would expect northern counties to go under a winter weather advisory at some point tomorrow.

[Kelarie]

Yup, it could get interesting tomorrow morning. My skeptical outlook is being warmed by all of this "sleet" talk!

Oh please, you know the quacks, I mean forecasters down here. They threw the bones and it looked a little funny so they threw in the sleet for a few counties.

[double D]

Hmmm is right. I live about 1 mile from the Travis/Williamson County border.

Maybe I might see some frozen stuff after all?!

The NWS has Fredericksburg in the sleet advisory, that means I won't see any frozen stuff and Travis county will have two inches of sleet.

[Portastorm]

Kel: I laughed about your "bones" theory! Trust me, I'm not even close to the "excited" category yet. My interest is piqued however by the ever-plunging-south freezing precip line.

double D: It always ices/snows first in the Hill Country, dude! No worries.

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has extended the WINTER STORM WARNING to include the Dallas/Ft. Worth area.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DROP TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
BY DAYBREAK. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
FURTHER COOL THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

A Winter Weather Advisory is also issued for the remaining North Texas areas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

TXZ135-142>146-156>159-300630-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.061130T1200Z-061201T0000Z/
HENDERSON-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-
BELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO
420 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING
SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED
SURFACES...SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ACROSS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[Yankeegirl]

Fox news just scrolled about the weather change and that there is an arctic front making its way towards Houston and that some severe weather might be seen later on... it also mentioned that areas to our north might be getting sleet, snow and/or a wintery mix and that we have to keep an eye on it, it might be threatening to us later on...?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brrr..

BTW: Fort worth has fallen from 75F to 50F in the last hour! That is a 25F drop in just 60 minutes! Amazing.

[HarlequinBoy]

I don't know if I have ever seen WSW and a tornado watch at the same time for the same place. This is indeed a strange situation.

In the Mid-South we had a WSW and a Tornado Watch at the same time last February.

But it didn't storm very much here, however.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fox news just scrolled about the weather change and that there is an arctic front making its way towards Houston and that some severe weather might be seen later on... it also mentioned that areas to our north might be getting sleet, snow and/or a wintery mix and that we have to keep an eye on it, it might be threatening to us later on...?

considering the fact that with each new update the winter precip. chances have jumped further and further south, I think there is a decent chance we could get some light winter precip. mixed in by the time the precip. ends tomorrow in north Houston. It will be a fun day of watching the temperatures fall, the winds increase and the rain/ice line grow nearer and nearer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18Z NAM is also looking better for winter weather temps. It is showing 850mb temps. falling below freezing and thickness levels reaching close to 540 for parts of SE Texas. Each run also is looking better and better from the GFS and NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is saying that Oklahoma may be slammed by their worst pre-christmas snowstorm ever from this system! He said that some local areas could recieve up to TWO FEET of snow!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

wow! They are saying sleet is even possible to san antonio! With that said...I now thinks Houston's chances go way up too! I will be watching that rain/ice/snow line VERY CAREFULLY tomorrow.

The way that sleet line keeps on getting moved south, it might make my neck of the woods.

[HarlequinBoy]

JB is saying that Oklahoma may be slammed by their worst pre-christmas snowstorm ever from this system! He said that some local areas could recieve up to TWO FEET of snow!

Isn't that a little over the top? I've been checking forecast across Oklahoma and haven't seen anything anywhere near 24 inches of snow..

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is saying that Oklahoma may be slammed by their worst pre-christmas snowstorm ever from this system! He said that some local areas could recieve up to TWO FEET of snow!

Isn't that a little over the top? I've been checking forecast across Oklahoma and haven't seen anything anywhere near 24 inches of snow..

he said "local" accumulations to 2 feet, but he does think a large area od 10-20" is possible in areas of the plains and Oklahoma.

It may be a little over the top, but I guess we shall see what actually plays out when it is all over with.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the rain is already switching over to sleet, ice and snow in north Texas right now, and with the low developing in SW Texas...the situation will likely go way downhill in the next 12 hrs.



Looks like this is shaping up to be quite a storm.

[double D]

The 18Z NAM is also looking better for winter weather temps. It is showing 850mb temps. falling below freezing and thickness levels reaching close to 540 for parts of SE Texas. Each run also is looking better and better from the GFS and NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

The only problem is when it's cold enought to support any type of freezing precip. most of the moisture is scoured out. If the upper low slows down some, then I wouldn't rule it out for the Houston area to see some sleet or ice.

[jeff]

Winter Storm Warning Issued for metroplex

Significant winter weather event within 12-18 hours...accumulating snow and sleet likely Thursday.

Arctic front slicing through the metro area.

Temps is 48 in Fort Worth and 73 in Dallas at 600pm and 37 at Gainesville.

Front will clear the metro areas by 900pm with strong NW bringing in very cold air mass.

Freezing line is at Vernon and pressing SE at 15mph.

Will not mess with winter precip. forecast as everything still appears on track for a significant winter weather event. Melting of snow/sleet due to warm grounds may knock an inch off the storm totals over the metro areas, but everyone should see accumulating sleet and snow.

Will probably need to onset freezing rain a little sooner due to faster frontal timing however the difference between 200am and 400am is not that great with the main point being ice could already be a problem by morning drive time. Conditions really go downhill through mid to late morning with potential for upright and slantwise convective snow bands. Mesoscale nature of the event may result in locally very heavy totals of accumulation...but where this happens is impossible to forecast.

[jasons2k]

Another update on the front position:

[jasons2k]

The 18Z NAM is also looking better for winter weather temps. It is showing 850mb temps. falling below freezing and thickness levels reaching close to 540 for parts of SE Texas. Each run also is looking better and better from the GFS and NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

The only problem is when it's cold enought to support any type of freezing precip. most of the moisture is scoured out. If the upper low slows down some, then I wouldn't rule it out for the Houston area to see some sleet or ice.

I agree here - I think some might want to temper their excitement a bit or they're going to be mighty disappointed come tomorrow night....

OTOH those in DFW look like they may get quite the storm

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18Z NAM is also looking better for winter weather temps. It is showing 850mb temps. falling below freezing and thickness levels reaching close to 540 for parts of SE Texas. Each run also is looking better and better from the GFS and NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

The only problem is when it's cold enought to support any type of freezing precip. most of the moisture is scoured out. If the upper low slows down some, then I wouldn't rule it out for the Houston area to see some sleet or ice.

I agree here - I think some might want to temper their excitement a bit or they're going to be mighty disappointed come tomorrow night....

OTOH those in DFW look like they may get quite the storm

we'll see...

as some have said in the past, the biggest surprises usually come when they're not expected. Now I am not calling for a major storm or anything, but I think that there is a very good chance I will be seeing something by tomorrow afternoon/evening. I have that feeling in my gut about this for some reason. I guess we shall see though, anything is possible. I could either be dead wrong or 100% correct, but ATM I am still just "monitoring" the situation.

The 0Z models should be helpful.