Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

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jasons2k
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#321 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:28 am

My morning low this AM was 34.

Also - of note - yesterday's high at Bush IAH was 57.

Let this be a a lesson to some members who were bashing and "frustrated" at the NWS, Channel 2, etc. for not forecasting highs in the "mid 40's". The proof will always be in the numbers.
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#322 Postby hurrican19 » Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:48 am

Say EWG - Do you ever sleep? Do you ever work? Do you do anything other than post on s2k? lol, not intended to be a bash on you, but seems like you're posting on here 24/7, lol. You sure know how to keep a thread going, which is nice! Keep up the good work :lol:
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#323 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:00 am

jschlitz wrote:My morning low this AM was 34.

Also - of note - yesterday's high at Bush IAH was 57.

Let this be a a lesson to some members who were bashing and "frustrated" at the NWS, Channel 2, etc. for not forecasting highs in the "mid 40's". The proof will always be in the numbers.
Well technically, the NWS did make an update last night calling for 32F at IAH...and they only hit 36F. Also, 57F is below the 59F the NWS was showing a few days before hand, and up in NW Houston where they were showing 59F as well a few days ago..it only hit 55F at Hooks. So I don't know if you can call that forecast spot on.

Also, Thursday's high would have been in the 30s or 40s had the front moved in earlier (as it once looked like would happen); so we very well could have seen highs in the 30s and 40s on that day. Also, if the front would have moved in later...say Thursday night...then yesterday would have likely been the day with 30s and 40s and clouds/rain. So really, I am not sure of the lesson I should be learning.

Anyway, on the bright side, it looks like those clouds did stick around last night and my prediction that we wouldn't drop more than a few extra degrees played out perfectly. Hooks only hit 36F (it was 38F there when I posted) and IAH only hit 36F as well (it was 38F there when I posted). Looks like the next freeze chance is Sunday night, but until then, we should hopefully be ok during the overnight hours.
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#324 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:04 am

hurrican19 wrote:Say EWG - Do you ever sleep? Do you ever work? Do you do anything other than post on s2k? lol, not intended to be a bash on you, but seems like you're posting on here 24/7, lol. You sure know how to keep a thread going, which is nice! Keep up the good work :lol:
I just usually happen to have a computer in reach on most occassions I guess. lol.
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#325 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:07 am

GREAT to see you Air Force Met!! Your Knowlage on this site is invaluble!! If you need any help at all, or if anyone over steps there bounds just let us know right away and they/it will be dealt quickly.. Again so glad you are back
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#326 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:12 am

Houston morning AFD uses the term "bear watch" for the first time this season...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DECEMBER`S COLD START WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE GETS A REINFORCING SHOT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT
THREE. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM (SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MOISTURE TAP EXTENDS WAY OUT INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING US PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PROBABLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK (AS DEPICTED WELL BY MODEL TIME SECTIONS). BY MIDWEEK..THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL FINALLY BRING US SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES (CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMS).
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW AND POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR JETS. SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING POSSIBLE TEXAS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EVOLVING INTO A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. UNTIL SOME MORE CONSISTENCY IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS...WILL
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OUR FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS). WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CALL FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES MIGHT NEED TO BE RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...IF THE TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW FORMATION MATERIALIZES. THIS DEFINITELY BEARS WATCH.

&&
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#327 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:13 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:My morning low this AM was 34.

Also - of note - yesterday's high at Bush IAH was 57.

Let this be a a lesson to some members who were bashing and "frustrated" at the NWS, Channel 2, etc. for not forecasting highs in the "mid 40's". The proof will always be in the numbers.
Well technically, the NWS did make an update last night calling for 32F at IAH...and they only hit 36F. Also, 57F is below the 59F the NWS was showing a few days before hand, and up in NW Houston where they were showing 59F as well a few days ago..it only hit 55F at Hooks. So I don't know if you can call that forecast spot on.

Also, Thursday's high would have been in the 30s or 40s had the front moved in earlier (as it once looked like would happen); so we very well could have seen highs in the 30s and 40s on that day. Also, if the front would have moved in later...say Thursday night...then yesterday would have likely been the day with 30s and 40s and clouds/rain. So really, I am not sure of the lesson I should be learning.

Anyway, on the bright side, it looks like those clouds did stick around last night and my prediction that we wouldn't drop more than a few extra degrees played out perfectly. Hooks only hit 36F (it was 38F there when I posted) and IAH only hit 36F as well (it was 38F there when I posted). Looks like the next freeze chance is Sunday night, but until then, we should hopefully be ok during the overnight hours.


On Tuesday, when all the frustration was vented about the various forecasts, here are the numbers I pulled from the first thread:

"56 on Friday - NWS says 55 for IAH"

The 56 was from KPRC.

Also, it doesn't matter what would have been. All that matters is what was. That's what forecasts are for.

EDIT: PS - In order for Thursday's high to be in the 30s or 40s, the front would have had to come through before midnight. It was NEVER forecasted to come in that early. It was originally scheduled to come in during the afternoon...at some point there was some question if it would come in at daybreak, but never before midnight.
Last edited by jasons2k on Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#328 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:18 am

Hey gang,

Here is another request to please post static images using imageshack/photobucket/whatever instead of dynamic images.

When going back through the first winter thread - all the images posted of TWC, etc., are now updated to maps of today. It would be nice to keep an archive of the old images. It would also be nice - during the summer - to look at some of these threads and not see posted "look how COLD it is in Amarillo!!" and below it is a map showing 100F.

Thanks!
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#329 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:27 am

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:My morning low this AM was 34.

Also - of note - yesterday's high at Bush IAH was 57.

Let this be a a lesson to some members who were bashing and "frustrated" at the NWS, Channel 2, etc. for not forecasting highs in the "mid 40's". The proof will always be in the numbers.
Well technically, the NWS did make an update last night calling for 32F at IAH...and they only hit 36F. Also, 57F is below the 59F the NWS was showing a few days before hand, and up in NW Houston where they were showing 59F as well a few days ago..it only hit 55F at Hooks. So I don't know if you can call that forecast spot on.

Also, Thursday's high would have been in the 30s or 40s had the front moved in earlier (as it once looked like would happen); so we very well could have seen highs in the 30s and 40s on that day. Also, if the front would have moved in later...say Thursday night...then yesterday would have likely been the day with 30s and 40s and clouds/rain. So really, I am not sure of the lesson I should be learning.

Anyway, on the bright side, it looks like those clouds did stick around last night and my prediction that we wouldn't drop more than a few extra degrees played out perfectly. Hooks only hit 36F (it was 38F there when I posted) and IAH only hit 36F as well (it was 38F there when I posted). Looks like the next freeze chance is Sunday night, but until then, we should hopefully be ok during the overnight hours.


On Tuesday, when all the frustration was vented about the various forecasts, here are the numbers I pulled from the first thread:

"56 on Friday - NWS says 55 for IAH"

The 56 was from KPRC.

Also, it doesn't matter what would have been. All that matters is what was. That's what forecasts are for.

EDIT: PS - In order for Thursday's high to be in the 30s or 40s, the front would have had to come through before midnight. It was NEVER forecasted to come in that early. It was originally scheduled to come in during the afternoon...at some point there was some question if it would come in at daybreak, but never before midnight.
Here is the NWS discussion from early last Wednesday and they are clearly forecasting 59F for Friday:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... =13&max=61

at the bottom of that page reads:

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 60 62 31 58 / 30 60 60 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 66 69 33 59 / 30 40 60 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 68 73 38 59 / 20 20 60 20 0


I am not sure what they may have been saying on Tuesday, but on Wednesday, closer to the event, they went with a warmer look for sure.
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#330 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:38 am

And it WAS warmer, was it not? On Tuesday, they forecasted 55 for Friday and it was 57...and still hitting 57 from a 59 (Wed's #) forecasted two days away isn't bad at all - esp. with a system moving through. Certainly they were a lot closer than the mid 40's you were frustrated at them for not forecasting.
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#331 Postby double D » Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:54 am

One thing we have to remember is that we are still in a progressive pattern. I guess thats why the NWS forecast were not as cool as some people thought it would be (me included). In order for us to have sustained cold we need a blocking pattern which hasn't happened all season, so far.
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#332 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:15 pm

J -- Your talking to a brick wall...;)

Also that "Bear watch" has nothing to do with any winter weather. It is for rain...

Being that this is a "winter weather" thread....
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#333 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:17 pm

jschlitz wrote:And it WAS warmer, was it not? On Tuesday, they forecasted 55 for Friday and it was 57...and still hitting 57 from a 59 (Wed's #) forecasted two days away isn't bad at all - esp. with a system moving through. Certainly they were a lot closer than the mid 40's you were frustrated at them for not forecasting.
I just went back and checked, and I hadn't called for mid 40s as a possibility since last weekend (when pretty much everyone was still not sure of the exact situation). But by last Tuesday I had gone with a much warmer idea thinking highs in the lower 50s and lows in the 20s. That idea came true because on Friday I hit 54F (Hooks hit 55F) and my low was 27F (29F at Hooks). I don't think I was ever "frustrating" the NWS with highs in the mid 40s during the days immediately leading up to the event. All I was saying during those days was that 59F was probably too warm..which it ended up being.

ALSO: There were other PRO METS calling for highs in the 40s to near 50 on Friday as well, so it was not like it was just me. Keep that in mind.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#334 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:19 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:J -- Your talking to a brick wall...;)

Also that "Bear watch" has nothing to do with any winter weather. It is for rain...

Being that this is a "winter weather" thread....
dude.."winter weather" can mean cold, cold rain, snow, sleet, anything that has to do with weather during winter. I nowhere in my above post even mentioned anything remotely close to that meaning winter precipitation at all. All I said was that they used the term "bear watch" for the first time and that I thought that was interesting.
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#335 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:22 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:J -- Your talking to a brick wall...;)

Also that "Bear watch" has nothing to do with any winter weather. It is for rain...

Being that this is a "winter weather" thread....
dude.."winter weather" can mean cold, cold rain, snow, sleet, anything that has to do with weather during winter. I nowhere in my above post even mentioned anything remotely close to that meaning winter precip. at all. All I said was that they used the term "bear watch" for the first time and that that was interesting.


"Dude"

What season are you talking about, that they are using "bear watch" for the first time?
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#336 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:25 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:J -- Your talking to a brick wall...;)

Also that "Bear watch" has nothing to do with any winter weather. It is for rain...

Being that this is a "winter weather" thread....
dude.."winter weather" can mean cold, cold rain, snow, sleet, anything that has to do with weather during winter. I nowhere in my above post even mentioned anything remotely close to that meaning winter precip. at all. All I said was that they used the term "bear watch" for the first time and that that was interesting.


"Dude"

What season are you talking about, that they are using "bear watch" for the first time?
the winter season. But just because it is during winter doesn't mean it has to do with winter precipitation, does it? It just happens to be the first time I have seen that term used in quite some time.
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#337 Postby jasons2k » Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:50 pm

All I can say is look at some of the posts on pages 6,7,8,9, etc. of the first thread. It's plain as day to anyone reading it. You blasted the NWS Houston for not mentioning any frozen precipitation and "going with the warmest possible scenarios......not taking any risks". You praised JB and hoped we'd be making snowballs this weekend, among other things. Some of us tried to put things into perspective in a polite way but you would have none of it. Stratos is right, I do feel like I'm talking to a brick wall. Time to step away, do some shopping, and enjoy this beautiful day.
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#338 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:12 pm

You can see the second round of cold air spilling into the northern U.S. right now ahead of tomorrow's cold front:

Image

Also, you can see the strong 1048mb high in Canada:

Image

BTW: I have made these images static.
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#339 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:37 pm

how do you make images static?
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#340 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:45 pm

No offense, but why argue over a couple of degrees? From what I'm reading there was no huge difference between the forecast and what actually occurred. We all know these wintry airmasses in the South are hard to forecast! lol..
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