EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1257 PM EST SUN DEC 03 2006
VALID 12Z WED DEC 06 2006 - 12Z SUN DEC 10 2006
...ERN AND CENTRAL NOAM...
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THRU CNTRL CAN
MIDWEEK TO FOCUS/DIG A PHASED TROUGH AND DEEPER/COLDER SURFACE
SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THRU THE E-CENTRAL US WED-FRI. THIS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE...ALBEIT PROBABLY BEST TEMPERED SOME BY ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE...THAN THE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED 00 UTC GFS/06 UTC DGEX
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM WRN CAN RIDGE AND
FAVORABLE TRENDS FROM THE 06 AND 12 UTC GFS AND ENSEMBLES...EVEN
OUT WITH SUBSEQUENT FLOW EVOLUTION BEYOND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
00/12 UTC UKMET RUNS EVEN OFFER A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/THREATENING
ERN US/CAN INLAND WINTER SYSTEM THEN MAJOR STORM CLOSER UP THE
NERN US COAST THAN THE ECMWF LATER THIS WEEK...BUT PREFER NOT TO
GO DOWN THAT ROAD WITHOUT BETTER ENSEMBLE/WATER VAPOR SUPPORT OR
LESS MULTI-MODEL GLOBAL FORECAST SPREAD.
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
Yet Another Major Eastern System???
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1247 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006
VALID 12Z THU DEC 07 2006 - 12Z MON DEC 11 2006
...E-CENTRAL US...
A LINGERING QUESTION CONCERNS THE EXTENT OF DIGGING WITH CANADIAN
IMPULSE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO A E-CENTRAL US MEAN TROF
POSITION THU-SAT...WITH THE 00 UTC UKMET DEVELOPING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE IS A
FAVORABLE/AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE BUT NEGLIGIBLE GFS/CANADIAN/AND
ECMWF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE 00 UTC UKMET AND THE
TODAYS 12 UTC UKMET HAS CERTAINLY BACKED OFF FROM THAT
DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD PREFER TO MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AND STAY
WITH A MUCH LESS DEVELOPED THEN OFFSHORE BLENDED SOLUTION HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE SEEMINGLY PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS OR
00 UTC ECMWF. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS BETTER 00 UTC GFS
ENSEMBLE/NOGAPS SUPPORT AND MORE PROLONGED DEEP TROFFING OVER THE
ERN US THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THE 06 AND 12 UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND 00 UTC CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE IN
THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CAMP...BUT PREFER NOT TO JUMP
MORE TOWARD THAT SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM RIDGING.
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1247 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006
VALID 12Z THU DEC 07 2006 - 12Z MON DEC 11 2006
...E-CENTRAL US...
A LINGERING QUESTION CONCERNS THE EXTENT OF DIGGING WITH CANADIAN
IMPULSE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO A E-CENTRAL US MEAN TROF
POSITION THU-SAT...WITH THE 00 UTC UKMET DEVELOPING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE IS A
FAVORABLE/AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE BUT NEGLIGIBLE GFS/CANADIAN/AND
ECMWF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE 00 UTC UKMET AND THE
TODAYS 12 UTC UKMET HAS CERTAINLY BACKED OFF FROM THAT
DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD PREFER TO MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AND STAY
WITH A MUCH LESS DEVELOPED THEN OFFSHORE BLENDED SOLUTION HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE SEEMINGLY PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00 UTC GFS OR
00 UTC ECMWF. THE 00 UTC GFS HAS BETTER 00 UTC GFS
ENSEMBLE/NOGAPS SUPPORT AND MORE PROLONGED DEEP TROFFING OVER THE
ERN US THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THE 06 AND 12 UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND 00 UTC CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE IN
THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CAMP...BUT PREFER NOT TO JUMP
MORE TOWARD THAT SOLUTION CONSIDERING THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM RIDGING.
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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