Hey folks, things are looking very good for more beneficial and welcomed rains for central and south central Texas. QPF amounts for this next event (tonight through Saturday) look to be 1-2 inches. We then have another upper low system coming in from the Southwest by the middle of next week.
Hopefully our rivers, creeks, lakes, and aquifers will slurp up the good stuff while the gettin' is good!
Here is the latest AFD from the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006
.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS THE CWFA THANKS TO A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
GULF MOISTURE TODAY HAS RESULTED IN RISING DEWPOINTS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER. ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF OVERCAST SKIES AND WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS. ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE STORMY ACROSS THE CWFA. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.
INITIALLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING INTO A LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS
WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC
(SPCSWODY2) FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS
A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL FINALLY END SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUNDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AND CLEAR AND CRISP NIGHT FOR NEW YEARS EVE.
TEMPERATURES NEW YEARS EVE AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN THE METRO AREAS OF SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. ATTM MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE THIS FEATURE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. AS WITH THE LAST FEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS THE TIMING IS
SUSPECT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF SAID UPPER LEVEL TROF.