C/SC Texas weather thread - a cold, wet Easter

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Portastorm
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#121 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:54 pm

double D wrote:Well it looks like the wind is starting to calm down a little bit after this VERY wind day. Much of the hill country is under a freeze warning tonight as the winds die down and the dewpoint is quite low. Could this be our first freeze?


I'll be expecting a report from you tomorrow morning! :lol:

Meanwhile, here in the big city ... we're expecting a low of 40. Chilly for sure.
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#122 Postby Portastorm » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:23 am

Portastorm wrote:
double D wrote:Well it looks like the wind is starting to calm down a little bit after this VERY wind day. Much of the hill country is under a freeze warning tonight as the winds die down and the dewpoint is quite low. Could this be our first freeze?


I'll be expecting a report from you tomorrow morning! :lol:

Meanwhile, here in the big city ... we're expecting a low of 40. Chilly for sure.


Eh, ain't gonna happen ... at 6 am, we're at 45 and holding steady. But I do see 30s south of us (New Braunfels, San Antonio) and even a 28 out in Junction!
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#123 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:07 am

I am currently hovering around 39-40 here in NW Houston. It is a chilly one for sure!
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#124 Postby double D » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:33 am

Well it was close but no cigar. We were at 35 this morning and the air was to dry to see any patchy frost. Sooner or later we will all see our first freeze. The way the models look right now it might be later than sooner. :wink:
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#125 Postby Portastorm » Thu Nov 16, 2006 4:28 pm

Some interesting tidbits from this afternoon's forecast discussion from NWSFO AUS/SAT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AM EXPECTING A FEW 32 DEGREE
READINGS RIGHT AT SUNRISE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AUSTIN AND SOUTHEAST TO
CEDAR CREEK. IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO LAST M0RE THAT ONE HOUR AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES, I WOULD CONSIDER ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. SO IF
TEMPERATURES DROP FASTER THAN FORECASTED, A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TRAVIS AND BASTROP COUNTIES TONIGHT. BUT FOR NOW, IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS SLIDES INTO TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISE TO ALMOST AN INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED DRIZZLE OR RAIN IN THE FORECAST YET, BUT LEFT SILENT
10%. BEYOND SUNDAY, AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
AS THIS NEXT AIRMASS BRINGS MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ESCARPMENT AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.
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#126 Postby double D » Thu Nov 16, 2006 5:15 pm

Portastorm wrote:Some interesting tidbits from this afternoon's forecast discussion from NWSFO AUS/SAT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AM EXPECTING A FEW 32 DEGREE
READINGS RIGHT AT SUNRISE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF AUSTIN AND SOUTHEAST TO
CEDAR CREEK. IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO LAST M0RE THAT ONE HOUR AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES, I WOULD CONSIDER ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING. SO IF
TEMPERATURES DROP FASTER THAN FORECASTED, A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TRAVIS AND BASTROP COUNTIES TONIGHT. BUT FOR NOW, IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS SLIDES INTO TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISE TO ALMOST AN INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED DRIZZLE OR RAIN IN THE FORECAST YET, BUT LEFT SILENT
10%. BEYOND SUNDAY, AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL
AS THIS NEXT AIRMASS BRINGS MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ESCARPMENT AREAS TUESDAY MORNING.


Something doesn't add up. Why are we forecasted in the upper 30's when the NWS said freezing or below freezing for the hill country?

Todays forecast from 3:35 pm.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 10 mph becoming east southeast.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.





Never mind, as of the 6:00 update they changed the numbers to reflect thier AFD discussion. I posted the new numbers as well.[b]
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#127 Postby Portastorm » Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:48 am

Hit 40.5 degrees this morning around 6 a.m. at my house. Parts of Austin had upper 30s and the airport hit 35 degrees, although the ASOS there sometimes shows temps much colder than what the rest of the city has.
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#128 Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:46 pm

Looks like our area will escape any serious freezing temps now and will await the next batch of cold air that may impact us next week.

In the meantime, looks like some great Thanksgiving week traveling weather. Since I'm going out to Odessa to visit in-laws and outlaws ... I'm grateful!
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#129 Postby double D » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:48 pm

Portastorm wrote:Looks like our area will escape any serious freezing temps now and will await the next batch of cold air that may impact us next week.

In the meantime, looks like some great Thanksgiving week traveling weather. Since I'm going out to Odessa to visit in-laws and outlaws ... I'm grateful!


It is pretty chilly out there tonight. I'm sitting at 43 degrees at 9:30 and will possibly see a light freeze tonight. (offically we have not had a freeze yet)

It is going to be interesting to see if we can actually get an artic intrusion in here late next week just in time to start off December.
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#130 Postby double D » Fri Nov 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Well get ready for some artic air next week. It looks like we will receive some of the coldest air of the season next Thursday with a hard freeze expected Friday night. :cold:

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
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#131 Postby Portastorm » Sat Nov 25, 2006 9:07 pm

Ditto. Hope everyone here had a nice Thanksgiving and didn't eat too much turkey!! Just rolled back into town from 4 days out in west Texas. Indeed. Looks like arctic air is on the way for mid week. Lots of weather action for us to follow!
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#132 Postby JenBayles » Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:50 pm

I really hope y'all out in the Hill Country get some rain out of this system - heck, even snow would be better than nothing at this point. My MIL lives in Wimberley, and says the Blanco river is nothing more than a few stagnant pools going through town. She lives only a few blocks from the river, and reports the stink is actually reaching up to her little apartment. In 25 years of living there, she's never seen it this bad. So stay warm by week's end, and I'm praying for some decent moisture your way and mine. :D
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#133 Postby Portastorm » Sun Nov 26, 2006 9:14 am

Hey folks, since we're talking about winter weather possibilities later this week ... let's carry this discussion to the Winter Weather Forum!
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#134 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 06, 2006 10:03 am

Looks like the weekend and early next week could get pretty wet for us and that is a good thing! A snippet from this morning's HPC discussion about an active southern jet:

"ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SHOULD LIE DOWNSTREAM OVER CAN. A RIDGE OF THIS INTENSITY CAN FAVOR A SRN OR SUBTROPICAL STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH CA/US SW THEN THE S-CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL US ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER INFLOW AND ORGANIZED PCPN."
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#135 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:22 am

Hey folks, things are looking very good for more beneficial and welcomed rains for central and south central Texas. QPF amounts for this next event (tonight through Saturday) look to be 1-2 inches. We then have another upper low system coming in from the Southwest by the middle of next week.

Hopefully our rivers, creeks, lakes, and aquifers will slurp up the good stuff while the gettin' is good! :D

Here is the latest AFD from the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS THE CWFA THANKS TO A DEEPENING SFC
LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF
GULF MOISTURE TODAY HAS RESULTED IN RISING DEWPOINTS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER. ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF OVERCAST SKIES AND WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS. ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE STORMY ACROSS THE CWFA. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. INITIALLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING INTO A LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS
WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC
(SPCSWODY2) FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS
A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RAIN CHANCES
WILL FINALLY END SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUNDAY
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AND CLEAR AND CRISP NIGHT FOR NEW YEARS EVE.
TEMPERATURES NEW YEARS EVE AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN THE METRO AREAS OF SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. ATTM MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE THIS FEATURE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. AS WITH THE LAST FEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS THE TIMING IS
SUSPECT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF SAID UPPER LEVEL TROF.
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#136 Postby double D » Thu Dec 28, 2006 8:57 pm

It looks like El Nino is starting to finally kick in and hopefully we can get into a good pattern of getting some soaking rains. :D
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#137 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:50 pm

And so it begins .... A Tornado Watch just issued for much of our area!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0886.html
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#138 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:53 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1244 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1242 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... OGLESBY BY 1250 PM
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#139 Postby Kelarie » Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:57 pm

Buckle in folks, looks like we are in for a rough day/night.

:eek:
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#140 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Dec 29, 2006 2:21 pm

I think Bush is still in Crawford.....


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
108 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MCLENNAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 106 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCGREGOR...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT CRAWFORD AND VALLEY MILLS.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3151 9755 3148 9744 3172 9736 3162 9758
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