Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Thursday night and Friday continue to look colder and colder:

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Since I've now been dubbed the S2K JB Sycophant I must tell you all that he's been right on the money in terms of trends this winter. Last week he was warning that this last cold shot down the Plains would smash GFS numbers and that indeed is happening.

If his hot hand continues, look for a milder (not above normal mind you but milder from what we have seen in the last 7-10 days) and wetter pattern for Texas followed by a major cold blast around or right after Christmas.

I'm sure JB would be pleased to know he has a Sycophant posting on the Storm2K boards.

But what he said about the late month pattern is correct. Hopefully it will get cold on or right before Christmas once again. Can't stand the thought of short sleves and shorts on Christmas for a second year in a row.

[double D]

Thursday night and Friday continue to look colder and colder:

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Since I've now been dubbed the S2K JB Sycophant I must tell you all that he's been right on the money in terms of trends this winter. Last week he was warning that this last cold shot down the Plains would smash GFS numbers and that indeed is happening.

If his hot hand continues, look for a milder (not above normal mind you but milder from what we have seen in the last 7-10 days) and wetter pattern for Texas followed by a major cold blast around or right after Christmas.

Let's hope the cold comes back around Christmas instead of right after, it sure would be nice not to have to run the A/C on Christimas Day.

Last year it seemed like JB had quite a few missed calls and this year he is redeeming himself so far. I also agree with EWG on welcoming some warm weather, but after a couple of weeks of above normal weather, I will be ready for a major cool down again.

[CaptinCrunch]

Another hard freeze (low 20's) for Thursday and Friday night!!

[aggiecutter]

The long range ENSEMBLES are hinting about a return to a colder pattern with a split flow in the long range, around the 20th or so. I would like to take this opportunity to thank JB sycophant Portastorm for his input on this board. Without his insights, which he gets from JB, this board wouldn't be worth watching.

LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[CaptinCrunch]

If you haven't read the latest 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2006 here s the link. A good read for us here in TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html

[PTrackerLA]

Sounds like we're in for another hard freeze too with lows in the mid 20's. What a way to start out December!

[gboudx]

If you haven't read the latest 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2006 here s the link. A good read for us here in TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html

Let's hope this pattern we're entering brings us multi, multi-inch rains.

[double D]

If you haven't read the latest 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2006 here s the link. A good read for us here in TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html

Let's hope this pattern we're entering brings us multi, multi-inch rains.

I just hope we don't get the rain all at once. It would be nice if we could have some good soaking rains spread out over time. It usually always seems like it is feast or famine here in Texas though.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

most of the time when we need rain it comes fast and furious

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thursday night and Friday continue to look colder and colder:

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Since I've now been dubbed the S2K JB Sycophant I must tell you all that he's been right on the money in terms of trends this winter. Last week he was warning that this last cold shot down the Plains would smash GFS numbers and that indeed is happening.

If his hot hand continues, look for a milder (not above normal mind you but milder from what we have seen in the last 7-10 days) and wetter pattern for Texas followed by a major cold blast around or right after Christmas.

Let's hope the cold comes back around Christmas instead of right after, it sure would be nice not to have to run the A/C on Christimas Day.

Last year it seemed like JB had quite a few missed calls and this year he is redeeming himself so far. I also agree with EWG on welcoming some warm weather, but after a couple of weeks of above normal weather, I will be ready for a major cool down again.

Same here. Though I want some warmer weather right now; in a couple of weeks my craving of cold will be back yet again. I guarantee it! lol.

[CaptinCrunch]

If you haven't read the latest 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2006 here s the link. A good read for us here in TX.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus07.html

Let's hope this pattern we're entering brings us multi, multi-inch rains.

I ponder the thought of multi, multi-inch snows as arctic air meets closed low over TX.

[CaptinCrunch]

Sounds like we're in for another hard freeze too with lows in the mid 20's. What a way to start out December!

A COLD START TO THE MONTH... AND EL NINO TELECONNECTIONS SHOULD FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF TEXAS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The previous forecast I posted here was NOT the latest, I was mistaken. However, the following IS the latest north Houston NWS forecast:

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 61.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

The Most interesting part is the forecast of a low of 30F mixed with a 20% chance of rain! That will be something to watch for sure!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Check out the Corpus AFD. Ice pelts in some sections of the CB????

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 PM CST WED DEC 6 2006

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT
BISECTING THE LONE STAR STATE IS STILL POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL GO ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP AND THAT
AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FROM A VICTORIA TO COTULLA LINE AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THOSE AREAS BY 12-14Z THURSDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH...DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS ~ 1.5 INCHES)...S/WV FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO GO WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
THE EASTERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONSTANT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS THE STRONGEST CAA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TEMPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO DECREASE TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 30S OVER THE NE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CLEAR OUT. MOISTURE AXIS WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE RIO
GRANDE THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K LAYER
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRATIFORM RAIN. WENT WITH
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS OVER LAREDO AND GRADED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE NE CWA.



.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY/EARLY
SAT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGD FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
WRN SECTIONS. ANTICIPATE STRATIFORM PCPN FRIDAY...PRIMARILY OVR THE
WRN CWFA. ANALYSIS OF 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM
THE GFS/NAM CONDUSIVE ICE PELLETS OVR THE NRN CWFA. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE REASONING THAT ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...GFS SOUNDINGS PROG WET BULB TEMPS AT THE
SFC/LWR LEVELS AROUND FREEZING. WL CONFINE ICE PELLETS OVR THE FAR
WEST FOR FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. BY THE
TIME ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FURTHER FRIDAY NGT/SAT...THE
FOREGOING THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGD TO BECOME LESS CONDUSIVE TO
MIXED/FROZEN PREICIPITATION. THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGD TO AFFECT THE CWFA TUES/WED.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FROM MON TO TUE. WL RETAIN FCST OF CONVECTION LATE
MON/EARLY TUE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With a forecast of 30F and rain in Houston and ICE PELLETS in parts of the Corpus Christi NWS area on Friday...I am now very interested in this situation!

[gboudx]

I ponder the thought of multi, multi-inch snows as arctic air meets closed low over TX.

That happening around Christmas is almost a given, considering that we drive home to New Orleans during that time. Most years we've been here, it seems like we have to delay our trip, cut it short, or sweat it out on the wintry precip. I refuse to drive on ice if I don't have to, especially on a long trip like that.

[double D]

Austin/San Antonio NWS has a 20% of sleet for Fredericksburg on Friday with a high of 45. This sure has changed from previous forecast. It looks like parts of Texas may see some type of winter precipation.

[CaptinCrunch]

The previous forecast I posted here was NOT the latest, I was mistaken. However, the following IS the latest north Houston NWS forecast:

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 61.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68.

The Most interesting part is the forecast of a low of 30F mixed with a 20% chance of rain! That will be something to watch for sure!

fireplace weather again!!

A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL BLUSTERY DAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL RIVAL THE BITTER COLD OF MONDAY
MORNING...READINGS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHERN ZONES AND SOME OTHER
OUTLYING AREAS.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. North northeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 21. North wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 48. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29. South wind around 5 mph.

[jasons2k]

Ok, this is a bit strange:

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 47 56 28 51 35 / 10 10 0 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 60 32 50 31 / 30 30 0 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 62 40 52 45 / 40 40 10 10 30

Why would CLL be 35 and IAH 31 Saturday AM? Hmm....

[Extremeweatherguy]