2007 Gray prediction, our predictions?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

11/5/2

I just don't see a busy season in the cards for 2007; of course I didn't see a slow season in the cards this past year either, so take it for what it is worth.

[cycloneye]

Well,I will throw out my very preliminary outlook,13/7/3.But I will look at all the factors,not only El Nino thing to then have a more complete idea when the official storm2k poll comes starting on April 1.

[Vlad]

My prediction: (scurries off to locate bag of Dungeons & Dragons multi-sided dice.)

I assert with absolute confidence that Dr. Gray will be grayer than ever in 2007!

On a more serious note, I think the whole "season forecast" stuff is almost complete pie-in-the-sky until it can be nailed down exactly why previous seasons developed the way they did. For instance, relatively minor relative differences in SSTs and pressures cannot explain the huge difference in numbers and distribution between the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Or why nicely-situated systems in 2006 bumbled along for days without consolidating whereas identical systems in 2005 quickly wound up.

IMO, Gray's team pays insufficient attention to ultra-altitude (read: tropopause and above) phenomena. I say: There's a whole lotta something influential going on up thar.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I remember 97 El nino, than the big come back of 98,99. Than again for 2002 with the only 12 storms that year, fellowed by 2003 and 2004, and so on.

I say
Named storms 12
Hurricanes 5
Maj 3

[MetSul Weather Center]

Dear Friends

Lots of reports were published on the "overestimation" of the 2006 hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Just one example:

Researchers: Late El Nino, Dry Atlantic Confounded '06 Forecasts

FORT COLLINS, CO (AP) -- A late El Nino and increased dryness in the Atlantic are credited with a slightly below-average hurricane season this year.

That contradicts predictions from Colorado State University hurricane forecasters, who predicted a well-above-average season in their forecasts last December, in April and in early June.

But lead author Philip Klotzbach says a variety of factors interact with each other to cause year-to-year and month-to-month hurricane variability.

He also says it's impossible to understand how all the processes interact with each other to 100 percent certainty.

The 2006 hurricane season had nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes -- but no Category Four or Five hurricanes.

Well, as early as April - two months before the second Colorado University and NOAA's forecast - several coupled models were already indicating an El Niño event developing in the middle of the year. Why the forecasts were so bullish on an active season if an El Niño should develop during the season ? Well, the season had a busy start, but then it turned to be very calm right when El Niño developed and strenghtened. Well, the interesting thing I am seeing is the scenario to 2007. I read some report on the media that continuity of El Niño in the first half of 2007 could bring another relatively calm season, according to experts. Probably this is based on NOAA's CFS model indication. But others models are starting to show neutrality and even the possibility of a cold event in the Pacific rigght during the season of 2007.

The australian POAMA model, for example, is indicating near neutral conditions in the summer of 2007 (July). But some individual members of the latest 30 runs of the model indicated a trend to a cool Pacific in the Niño 3 region.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

NASA's climate model points to a rapid reversal toward a cool Pacific aorund July 2007.

http://nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/exptlpreds/l ... e=forecast

The same is shown at the Cliper model:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... figf12.gif

But the CFS forecast from NOAA is not showing any reversal so far in the Pacific. The trend, according to the CFS coupled model, is a warm Pacific persisting during the hurricane season of 2007:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTSea.gif

As Philip Klotzbach told the Associated Press, lots os factors interact with each other to determine hurricane variability. Well, this a matter for discussion, we believe that the second half of the 2007 season may get much more active If this phase reversal trend in the Pacific gets confirmed during the first half of 2007. If it takes place around July or August we still believe activity would be enhanced, but any change after that should bring minor or no influence in the hurricane season.

Our chief-meteorologist just posted his forecast in his weather blog** at our homepage here in Brazil (content in Portuguese) and the forecast is 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, four major.

Best Wishes

Alexandre
MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center
Brazil

--

** http://www.metsul.com/blog/?cod_blog=1

[Tampa_God]

Named Storms: 16
Hurricanes: 9
Major (3 or higher): 3

El Nino ending by Late April and fast warming sea temps will contribute to a little above average season.

[Andrew92]

I can believe 14/8/4 for next season........my WAY-early predictions would probably be that exact count give or take 1 for each category.

I said it earlier on in the season: I thought THIS year was the El Nino year, and that by next year's hurricane season, the El Nino will die out. I was correct that 2006 was the El Nino season when I said it. I won't toot my horn about next year until it happens though. Yes, my pre-season numbers for 2006 were, like most people's way off, oh well.

I'm not buying into a La Nina for 2007 right now, but neutral would be my best guess; ala next year will probably be more active. But still, ya never know.......

-Andrew92

[Stormcenter]

I just don't see us having a above average season in 2007. That being said remember it only takes one major hurricane to cause mass destruction and deaths. Anyway you all enjoy the winter weather season and Happy Holidays to all from Stormcenter!!!!!!!!

[Coredesat]

I'm probably going to go with 14/7/4 unless there's a major pattern change (such as El Nino ending as suddenly and as unexpectedly as it began, for instance).

[CrazyC83]

Storm by storm - yes, this is totally my guesses and nothing else, here is what I am sensing:

Tropical Storm ANDREA - July 10 to 14 - 40 knots - 1002 mb
Tropical Storm BARRY - Aug. 16 to 20 - 50 knots - 997 mb
Hurricane CHANTAL - Aug. 24 to Sept. 3 - 65 knots - 986 mb, Category 1
Tropical Depression FOUR - Aug. 29 to 30 - 30 knots - 1007 mb
Tropical Storm DEAN - Sept. 4 to 7 - 45 knots - 1005 mb
Hurricane ERIN - Sept. 5 to 13 - 90 knots - 971 mb, Category 2
Hurricane FELIX - Sept. 7 to 21 - 120 knots - 939 mb, Category 4
Tropical Storm GABRIELLE - Sept. 14 to 16 - 55 knots - 999 mb
Hurricane HUMBERTO - Sept. 20 to Oct. 2 - 100 knots - 961 mb, Category 3
Hurricane INGRID - Oct. 1 to 11 - 155 knots - 893 mb, Category 5
Tropical Depression ELEVEN - Oct. 5 to 6 - 25 knots - 1009 mb
Tropical Storm JERRY - Oct. 7 to 10 - 45 knots - 1001 mb
Hurricane KAREN - Oct. 12 to 18 - 85 knots - 968 mb, Category 2
Tropical Depression FOURTEEN - Oct. 21 - 30 knots - 1004 mb
Hurricane LORENZO - Oct. 25 to 31 - 75 knots - 980 mb, Category 1
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN - Oct. 30 to 31 - 30 knots - 1005 mb
Tropical Storm MELISSA - Nov. 4 to 8 - 55 knots - 998 mb
Hurricane NOEL - Nov. 9 to 17 - 100 knots - 964 mb, Category 3

[Coredesat]

Little early for specific predictions, isn't it?

[Dynamic]

My Tropical Predictions will be 13/7/4 for the 2007 Hurricane Season. I really think that the next cane season will be very similar to 1998.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm going to go for 14/8/4.