Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

aggiecutter · #481 Postby **aggiecutter** » Wed Dec 06, 2006 8:36 pm

I think we will see several Tornado watches before we see the next Winter Storm Watch in Texas. Next Tuesday-Wednesday has the potential to be a fairly significant-widespread severe weather event for Texas.

#482 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:55 pm

aggiecutter wrote:I think we will see several Tornado watches before we see the next Winter Storm Watch in Texas. Next Tuesday-Wednesday has the potential to be a fairly significant-widespread severe weather event for Texas.

Oh most definitely aggiecutter! Right now, the GFS is progging the low to move right across central Texas. It is a classic El Nino, severe-weather producing set up for us.

From the 12z GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

Actually, looks more like a short wave trough with the bulk of the energy in north Texas ... but certainly enough to stir up trouble further down I-35 and east into the Houston area.

Furious George · #483 Postby **Furious George** » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:13 pm

Not that likely, but this interpretation of the GFS showing some winter weather for SE Texas in 48 hrs. We'll see.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #484 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:24 pm

Furious George wrote:Not that likely, but this interpretation of the GFS showing some winter weather for SE Texas in 48 hrs. We'll see.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

Actually, the Corpus Christi NWS office is forecasting sleet for portions of their area, and the Austin NWS is too. So this run of the GFS may not be that far off. Also, Houston currently has a forecast of 30-32F with "rain" for Friday night. Winter precipitation doesn't look like it is all that unlikely at this point and will probably be going on aross parts of the state in 24-48 hrs. Certainly something to watch for our area too.

BTW: This 0Z GFS run is certainly the most encouraging for winter weather over this area of the state. If it plays out, then sleet and snow and frz. rain would not be impossible for many areas in central, south, and southeast TX. However, accumulations look unlikely due to temps. only "near" freezing and only light precipitation.

wxman22 · #485 Postby **wxman22** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:31 am

Looks intresting... Heres the latest forcast EWG for our areas (Northern suburbs of Houston) NOT Houston proper.

Cypress:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 34°F

Spring:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Tomball:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Rural Harris County:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Jersey Village:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F
Friday
Night

Houston PROPER:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 37°F

aggiecutter · #486 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:26 am

Supposed to get down to 19 tonight in Texarkana. The air mass is somewhat colder than expected, although it will be short lived.

Current local weather
Texarkana Regional-Webb Field
Last Update on Dec 7, 7:53 am CST
Fair
40°F
(4°C)

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 19. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56. South wind around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 54.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

#487 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:38 am

High's today will not get out of the 40's with the coldest night of the season expected, lows across the NTX area will dip into the mid/upper teens.

1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR A TENTH OF
AN INCH...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS BY SUNSET.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALL PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE THE RULE. ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY DAY EXPECTED.

#488 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:04 am

Cold air advection is fairly strong with this front. Temps this morning are dropping into the upper 40s here in the Austin metro area. With a thick cloud cover, breezy north winds, and these dropping temps ... feels like winter again!

Kelarie · #489 Postby **Kelarie** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 11:15 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
517 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
517 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

weatherrabbit_tx · #490 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:12 pm

wxman22 wrote:Looks intresting... Heres the latest forcast EWG for our areas (Northern suburbs of Houston) NOT Houston proper.

Cypress:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 34°F

Spring:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Tomball:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Rural Harris County:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F

Jersey Village:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 33°F
Friday
Night

Houston PROPER:Friday
Night

Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 37°F

very interesting........

JenBayles · #491 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:06 pm

All I know is I'm freezing my arse off today. BRRRRRR! I hate this damp/cold!

aggiecutter · #492 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:12 pm

The long range ENSEMBLES continue to hint at a pattern change around the 20th:

Today's ENSEMBLES:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 6_usbg.gif

Yankeegirl · #493 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:01 pm

I am really cold today too.... Its only 59 out and I have the chills!!

weatherrabbit_tx · #494 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:34 pm

Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of rain after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 5 mph......for the Tomball area Friday nite/early Saturday morning....hmm not betting on it......

Extremeweatherguy · #495 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:40 pm

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of rain after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. East wind around 5 mph......for the Tomball area Friday nite/early Saturday morning....hmm not betting on it......

Why not? 28F sounds like a reasonable number to me and the rain chance of 10 percent also sounds reasonable. The only thing I find confusing is how this could just be "rain" in 28F temperatures. If this were to really play out, then the forecast would need to be changed to freezing rain or sleet.

weatherrabbit_tx · #496 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:42 pm

sorry, that what I meant about the "rain" at 28 sure would be frozen precip

Extremeweatherguy · #497 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:44 pm

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:sorry, that what I meant about the "rain" at 28 sure would be frozen precip

oh ok.

I get what you meant now.

Extremeweatherguy · #498 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:47 pm

BTW, if you take a look at the hourly chart they show the rain chance increasing to 30% Saturday morning with temps. below freezing:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... eadHour=24

Very interesting situation (to say the least)...

weatherrabbit_tx · #499 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:55 pm

hmmmm and my company's christmas parts at the westin galleria saturday nite shouldnt effect it any

southerngale · #500 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:15 pm

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-072200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
658 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

...MORE RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...

A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SURGING OUT OF THE UPPER
PLAINS WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE MID 20S ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

RECORD BREAKING COLD IS EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING NIGHT WITH SATURDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 27 DEGREES IN LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS DOWN TO 21 DEGREES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES,
WATCHES, AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS LATEST COLD OUTBREAK.

$$

SWEENEY

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1111 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...

.A STRONG COLD MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL FIRST BRING BRISK
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-072200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.W.0005.061208T0600Z-061208T1400Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
1111 AM CST THU DEC 7 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT ACROSS THE LAKES
AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS LIKELY BY DAY-BREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
FREEZING MARK BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S
AFTER 4 AM.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS
AND AT OR BELOW 27 DEGREES FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

PERSONS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PLANTS...PIPES AND PETS.
ALSO EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN WHEN USING SPACE HEATERS.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY.

Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

Who is online