TSR First 2007 Atlantic Forecast=16/9/4

#1 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:13 pm

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:03 pm

This is the first salvo in terms of seasonal forecasts for the 2007 season.The second salvo will be the first outlook from the Colorado State University team,Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr William Gray which will issue tommorow their first 2007 outlook.For what I am concerned TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) up the chances for landfall in the Lesser Antilles but it's very early in the ballgame as it's only the first inning.Let's see as time goes by and the season gets closer how the factors are going to work in favor or not for the season they are predicting.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:36 pm

It makes very little difference how many named storms are forecast or how many develop as far as the potential threat to the U.S. and Caribbean. It all comes down to what area gets hit and how hard. It only takes 1 bad landfall to make for a devastating season. Even a season of 1/1/1 could be deadly if that one named storm destroys a major city. With that in mind, consider these "inactive" seasons of the past:

#4 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:17 pm

im thinking that it will be just higher than last year but lower than TSR: 14/6/3

#5 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:20 pm

its too soon to tell. remember what happened this time in 2005? 13 storms? wrong!

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:59 pm

Remember, 1992 is the only season I can remember that had a category 3 landfall, a category 4 landfall, and a category 5 landfall in the USA. Not even 2004 had that

#7 Postby **AnnularCane** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:29 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Remember, 1992 is the only season I can remember that had a category 3 landfall, a category 4 landfall, and a category 5 landfall in the USA. Not even 2004 had that

Andrew, Iniki, and...who?

Jim Cantore · #8 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:54 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Remember, 1992 is the only season I can remember that had a category 3 landfall, a category 4 landfall, and a category 5 landfall in the USA. Not even 2004 had that

Andrew, Iniki, and...who?

Andrew Iniki and Andrew (hit LA as a cat 3)

#9 Postby **AnnularCane** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:14 pm

Category 5 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Remember, 1992 is the only season I can remember that had a category 3 landfall, a category 4 landfall, and a category 5 landfall in the USA. Not even 2004 had that

Andrew, Iniki, and...who?

Andrew Iniki and Andrew (hit LA as a cat 3)

Oh, you would think that would have occurred to me. :oops:

Well, I was thinking in terms of three different storms.

#10 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:37 pm

Plus Omar hit the US Territory of Guam as a Cat 3 in 1992.

Steve

YouTube · #11 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:10 pm

That El Nino needs to go away before any forecast of high overall numbers has a real chance to verify. Can anyone list seasons with an El Nino AND high overall numbers? Were any of THOSE seasons high landfall seasons or did they have any major hurricane landfalls?

wxmann_91 · #12 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:31 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:That El Nino needs to go away before any forecast of high overall numbers has a real chance to verify. Can anyone list seasons with an El Nino AND high overall numbers? Were any of THOSE seasons high landfall seasons or did they have any major hurricane landfalls?

El Nino's probably going to die out quickly after February. A strong cold anomaly has already appeared beneath the positive subsurface anomalies.

Derek Ortt · #13 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 8:34 pm

2004 had an el nino. Season shut down right on schedule with an el nino (really nothing significant after Jeanne and Karl in mid to late September)

August was rediculously active that year though and resulted in high numbers

YouTube · #14 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 8:42 pm

Yep- that's a good point. Seems like 2004 was aeons ago. Wow. How time flies.

#15 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 8:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:2004 had an el nino. Season shut down right on schedule with an el nino (really nothing significant after Jeanne and Karl in mid to late September)

August was rediculously active that year though and resulted in high numbers

i know that way too well

KatDaddy · #16 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:54 pm

I can't agree with you more wxman57. We always hear it takes one but its amazing how many people forget. Bottom line is we always need to be prepared every season. The public hears El Nino and expects a non-eventful hurricane season. Again look at what wxman57 has posted. It says it all.

#17 Postby **AnnularCane** » Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:24 pm

KatDaddy wrote:I can't agree with you more wxman57. We always hear it takes one but its amazing how many people forget. Bottom line is we always need to be prepared every season. The public hears El Nino and expects a non-eventful hurricane season. Again look at what wxman57 has posted. It says it all.

True. The media doesn't help either. This year, every time they lowered the predictions even a little bit, the local media acted all relieved, as though that meant we would be spared for sure. Sometimes somebody will say that it only takes one, but the whole general tone is that of "Oh, we're safe now!" :roll:

Hurricaneman · #18 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:25 am

fact789 wrote:im thinking that it will be just higher than last year but lower than TSR: 14/6/3

My opinion, if el nino stays, there will be 10-4-2, but if el nino dissapates,or becomes la nina, the TSR numbers may well verify, but the details are still months away

TSR First 2007 Atlantic Forecast=16/9/4

TSR First 2007 Atlantic Forecast=16/9/4

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