Possible winter weather for MS??

[rsdoug1981]

Nice afternoon discussion concerning next week from Jackson NWS.
This could be very interesting. Let's hope the GFS is too warm for next week!

SUN THROUGH TUE...A 1040 HIGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MODERATE MUCH ON THE WAY DOWN FROM CANADA B/C OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. AREAS OF OK/KS/MO/AR WILL STILL BE UNDER SOME DECENT SNOW FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT CIRRUS BUT IF THERE IS ANY IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
TEMPS MON MORNING SINCE THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN ADVECTION(AIRMASS) TYPE MORNING. TUE MORNING THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY CIRRUS TO WORRY ABOUT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUITE CONSIDERABLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN ABOUT A YEAR OR MORE. MDL GUI IS NOTORIOUS FOR NOT CATCHING THESE VERY COLD AND SHALLOW AIRMASSES AND IT IS STILL SUGGESTING MID TO UPPER 20S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE RAW MDL IS TRYING TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WITH THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...ORIGINATION OF THE AIRMASS...THE FACT THAT IT WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD AREA OF SNOW PACK...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES I WILL CONSIDERABLY CUT THE GUI. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN FOR THE LAST 4 RUNS AND LAST NIGHT DROPPED CONSIDERABLY. THERE ARE EVEN LOW MEMBERS NOW SUGGESTING TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. I HAVE INTRODUCED UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH MAINLY AT GWO WHICH HAS BEEN OUR
COLDEST SITE ON AVERAGE THUS FAR THIS SEASON.

ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH AGAIN THU AND KEEP THE AREA WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A WAVE IN THE NRN GOM. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SITUATION WE USUALLY NEED DOWN HERE TO GET SOME WINTRY PRECIP. THAT SAID THE GFS IS SHOWING A RATHER GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AIR WHICH WOULD KEEP US TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS THOUGH IN CASE THE GFS IS TOO WARM.

[Janie2006]

KJAN's afternoon discussion was very interesting and I see no reason for deviation from their forecast reasoning. It appears they've got a good handle on the moderation (or lack thereof) of the clipper front moving in over the weekend. Looks like a cold week ahead, at the least. Good to see them come around to my way of thinking!

I'm still thinking that KMOB is too warm in the extended period, especially for SE Ms. I expect those forecast temps will lower as we move into the weekend.

[HarlequinBoy]

I liked their discussion this afternoon.. gave me some hope of a slight chance for some interesting weather next week, or at least something to watch.

The Memphis discussion hasn't really hinted at anything significant next week yet, except a few showers Wednesday night, which is still something, especially since temps are forecast to fall to around freezing, so we'll see. I'm sure there could be more focus once the active weather we're having now moves out tomorrow morning.

[HarlequinBoy]

Well, it actually did end up sleeting here for about 20 minutes. Temps are still well above freezing but in the last band of precip it quickly changed to sleet for a short period of time! Over 70 degrees to sleet in 6 hours.

[MGC]

NWS Jackson is thinking just what I posted yesterday that the snow won't allow the air to modify as much as usual. I think the low temp might be a few degrees lower than forecast, might see my first freeze..........MGC

[MGC]

Just as I thought, the low has been lowered to 27 for Tuesday morning in responce to the snow cover. Looks like my first freeze, as it was 34 this Saturday morning at my place......MGC

[HarlequinBoy]

That's pretty cold!! .. our forecast low Tuesday morning is 24 and 23 for tonight.

It's been tough for a warmup today. So far the high is 37, expected to reach 42.

[rsdoug1981]

From KJAN:

FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA AND WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WE COULD SEE COLDER TEMPS THAN WE HAD LAST TUE MORNING. GUI IS SUGGESTING LOWS FLIRTING WITH TEENS ONCE AGAIN(EVEN MIDDLE TEENS IN SOME AREAS) AND IT HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR SOME TIME NOW.

This deserves bug eyes.

Accodring to the local weather station in Canton, it was 17.8 degrees Tuesday morning. Will it get colder?

[HarlequinBoy]

Those are some cold lows!

Here we aren't supposed to drop that low.. only too 20, but the high today was 41, and has dropped steadily to 34 and it is windy. The wind chill is in the low 20s right now.

Brr.

[rsdoug1981]

Alright MS people...NWS Jackson is at least raising "the possibility" now.

OTHER BIG ISSUE IS TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST MODELS NOW DEPICT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GOMEX...OR WELL INLAND. THAT DETAIL IS QUITE CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST SO GETTING TOO DETAILED AT THE END OF THE LONG RANGE IS A TRICKY PROPOSITION. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR OUR REGION SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HOLIDAY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE WILL HAVE TO BE NEGOTIATED FOR THE COMING SHIFTS. LEAVING MENTION OF ANY SUCH PHENOMENA OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.

The Canton Courthouse Square and the Natchez Trace would look awfully nice with a white coating! I kind of like the term "not negligible," too.

PS, If you haven't driven through Canton at night lately, you owe it to yourself! 200,000+ lights!

[HarlequinBoy]

NWS Memphis is also at least hinting at something.


---
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS...DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WHERE THE SURFACE / UPPER LOW(S) TRACK. AT THIS POINT...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIP AT THIS POINT...BUT OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
---


It's not much, but it's something!

The high for Christmas Day here is 46 with a 30% chance of showers. So you never know.


As always, this is something that bears watching.

Maybe we'll both get lucky and MS will get a nice blanket of snow.

[Janie2006]

LEAVING MENTION OF ANY SUCH PHENOMENA OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.

Maybe its time to call in Leonard Nimoy. He was pretty good at ferreting out that strange phenomena back in the '70s.

[HarlequinBoy]

lol..

Reading AFDs to the north of Mississippi, they're starting to show snow/rain chances as well, which means at the very least moisture will be here.

And maybe cold enough air, especially overnight.

But, sadly.. it still doesn't look very promising.

Oddly, The Weather Channel shows Rain/Snow on Wednesday. Of course, that's not to be trusted.


Something that is confusing me though is this.. is there another system coming in just after Christmas Day also? Shreveport talks about that.


Bear Watch in effect!