Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

JenBayles · #21 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:10 pm

As for an updated AFD - HA! Don't you know they wait until precip is actually hitting the ground before changing the forecast? Puh-leeze! :cheesy:

#22 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:20 pm

How can it be? A Winter Weather Advisory to our SW and no word from EWG? Wait - there was a report of some guy on a North Freeway overpass with a sign: "Blizzard 2006 is on the way!!! Take cover immediately!!!"

...could it be?? :lol:

double D · #23 Postby **double D** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:30 pm

That is pretty funny jschiltz :lol:

Btw, it is snowing in Cotulla with a temperature of 36 degrees. It will be interesting to see if some of this can work it's way to sw zones of Houston.

Johnny · #24 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:30 pm

Just got word on a hunting site that I visit regularly that it is snowing pretty good down in Frio County right now!

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... e&pid=none

Johnny · #25 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:40 pm

Man, all I want to see are a few flakes. EWG, help a brotha out will ya? :cheesy:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

TXZ229>234-090115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.WW.Y.0001.061208T1905Z-061209T0600Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...ENCINAL...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...SKIDMORE...GOLIAD...
VICTORIA
105 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS FALLING INTO DRY LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PRODUCING SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COOLING
DOWN AND SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COTULLA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADWAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PRODUCING THIS WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF AN ENCINAL TO SKIDMORE TO
PLACEDO LINE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE SHOULD ONLY
SEE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 INCHES WITH
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/2 AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #26 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:55 pm

Wow, this looks awfully familar to a certain snow event in 2004. :eek:

Low 40's during the day like it is right now, with freezing precip of some sort falling to the north and west of Corpus. I rememeber sitting on my computer looking at the radars at this time during the day and seeing the precip in the same areas and monitoring the temps.

And then, wham at night the snow fell. I doubt this event will be similar, but no one in their right minds back then expected that event also.

So I say to my bud Portastorm in Austin. I'll see you a snow ball via FedEx. :cheesy:

Kelarie · #27 Postby **Kelarie** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:01 pm

No taunting us in Austin - WHO GET NOTHING AT ALL. Okay it is now out of my system. :lol:

Kelarie · #28 Postby **Kelarie** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:04 pm

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
118 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD EARLY DECEMBER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR DECEMBER 8TH. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE...WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ADD TO THE COLD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. ISOLATED PATCHES OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY TO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING... LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT RAIN ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #29 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:10 pm

000
WWUS84 KCRP 081952
SPSCRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
152 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

TXZ239>247-090100-
WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAREDO...RIO BRAVO...FREER...
BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...PREMONT...KINGSVILLE...
CORPUS CHRISTI...ROBSTOWN...PORT ARANSAS...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOODSBORO...
PORT LAVACA...PORT O`CONNOR...SEADRIFT
152 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS FALLING INTO DRY LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PRODUCING SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COOLING
AND LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN FREER. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING THIS WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AREAS SOUTH OF AN ENCINAL TO SKIDMORE TO PLACEDO LINE ARE EXPECTED
TO MAINLY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN...BUT MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH WITH
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/4 OF AN INCH

Yankeegirl · #30 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:14 pm

This is crap! Why no winter weather for Houston? and whats more surprising is where is EWG?? Has he gone into hiding? IF there is a winter weather advisory for points southwest of us, I am going to move... What are the odds that the areas SW of us get another shot at winter precip!! I do have to say that the clouds are streaming in... maybe a sign of things to come?

Kelarie · #31 Postby **Kelarie** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:16 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:This is crap! Why no winter weather for Houston? and whats more surprising is where is EWG?? Has he gone into hiding? IF there is a winter weather advisory for points southwest of us, I am going to move... What are the odds that the areas SW of us get another shot at winter precip!! I do have to say that the clouds are streaming in... maybe a sign of things to come?

Hey I feel your pain. Here in Austin, we get it to the north of us, and now to the south. There is no justice in the world. :roll:

Yankeegirl · #32 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:16 pm

Ok... this is official CRAP! This is from Victoria!!!!!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

TXZ229>234-090115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.WW.Y.0001.061208T1905Z-061209T0600Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...ENCINAL...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...SKIDMORE...GOLIAD...
VICTORIA
105 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS FALLING INTO DRY LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PRODUCING SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COOLING
DOWN AND SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COTULLA WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROADWAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PRODUCING THIS WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF AN ENCINAL TO SKIDMORE TO
PLACEDO LINE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE SHOULD ONLY
SEE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 INCHES WITH
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/2 AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

#33 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:18 pm

I hope we can sqeeze out some precip. up here. It'd be the perfect way to send the dewpoint back up and prevent a freeze. 36F and snowing would be just fine for me - then we could all be happy :wink:

Yankeegirl · #34 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:23 pm

The latest from our number one local Met, Jeff Linder....

Snow and sleet falling over portions of S and SC TX.

Winter Weather advisory has been issued for Victoria and SW and W through midnight.

Strong upper storm system over Mexico is forcing moisture over TX this afternoon producing a band of light sleet and snow. Cotulla is reporting light snow along with public reports of snow falling throughout Frio Co. and just south of San Antonio . In fact snow is accumulating on roads in portions of Cotulla.

Dewpoints are running in the teens across most of the region and most of what is on the radar is evaporating before reaching the ground, however per latest radar trends the precip. shield is moving NE into the drier air and entering the SW portions of SE TX . Given time, the precip. may saturate from the top down and reach the ground as light snow or ice pellets around Matagorda Bay . Will need to keep a very close watch on the precip. shield and movement this afternoon and evening as any faster NE push may bring some kind of winter precip. into SE TX overnight.

Accumulations of ½ to 3 inches will be possible south of San Antonio where very high reflectivity is being noted on local radars. However, surface temps are well above freezing at this time and significant accumulations are unlikely for the time being.

#35 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:33 pm

Looking out to the west from my office I can see Virga - but it is evaporating so high in the atmosphere it's not being picked-up by radar. The air is so incredibly dry it would be one major feat to get anything to the surface.

Johnny · #36 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:34 pm

I was waiting for Jeff to chime in. At least he has given us just a glimmer of hope even though we will probably see zilch from this.

Come evening time the temps will more than likely dive into the 30's across Southeast, Texas. Hopefully some precip will move in after we have dropped into the 30's. Whenever we do get some decent freezing precip. in Southeast, Texas...it is not forecasted. Maybe this could happen again. That's the only thing I've got to hang a hat on. lol

Extremeweatherguy · #37 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:38 pm

Sorry guys, my internet has been down! I am back now though, and wow! What an interesting situation. I will be watching closely.

Extremeweatherguy · #38 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:41 pm

Johnny wrote:I was waiting for Jeff to chime in. At least he has given us just a glimmer of hope even though we will probably see zilch from this.

Come evening time the temps will more than likely dive into the 30's across Southeast, Texas. Hopefully some precip will move in after we have dropped into the 30's. Whenever we do get some decent freezing precip. in Southeast, Texas...it is not forecasted. Maybe this could happen again. That's the only thing I've got to hang a hat on. lol

I really hope so! If we could get a nice round of snow, I would be very happy!

Extremeweatherguy · #39 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:43 pm

Looking at the radar...it seems the precip. is moving right toward us! Looks like we might have a shot!

Johnny · #40 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:46 pm

15 minutes worth of flurries is good enough for me! lol

Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

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