Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[Portastorm]

Sorry EWG ... the Snow Nazi is saying "No snow for you!"

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW: It still looks like the precip. (or a thick cloud deck at the minimum) is heading our way...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... te&large=1

[southerngale]

We got down to 25° last night. We've already had more freezes/hard freezes than we had all of last year, I believe.

....not to mention a few broken records! Officially, the Beaumont/Port Arthur airport (KBPT) reached 28° last night. And tonight is forecasted to be even colder.




Here's a few snippets from the Lake Charles AFD:

VERY CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT INTO THE 40S...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR ZERO
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 10 SOUTH SHOW HOW DRY THE AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE.


RECORD TO NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. BOTH ALEXANDRIA
AND NEW IBERIA SHOULD OBLITERATE THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD LOWS FOR
TOMORROW...WHILE BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES WILL BE CLOSE TO
BREAKING THEIR RECORDS.

RECORD LOWS FOR DECEMBER 9TH

BEAUMONT 25/1917
LAKE CHARLES 26/1927
LAFAYETTE 16/1917
ALEXANDRIA 25/1965
NEW IBERIA 30/1995


Btw, as much as I'd LOVE some snow, the NWS Lake Charles folks are talking about how dry this airmass is, so I'm not getting my hopes up. I've watched Portastorm get knocked down by Lucy too many times....don't wanna feel that pain.

[Johnny]

The precip is definately holding it's own but it's fixing to arrive into a VERY dry air mass. Let's see what it does over the next couple of hours as it gets closer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The precip is definately holding it's own but it's fixing to arrive into a VERY dry air mass. Let's see what it does over the next couple of hours as it gets closer.

It is interesting to note though that precip. has been falling in dewpoints as low as 21F in Victoria, 16F in San Antonio, and 15F in Cotulla. Also, before the precip. started the dewpoints were much lower than that in those areas. So if it has happened in those areas with such low dewpoints, I think it has a shot at happening here too (current dewpoint of 10F at IAH).

At this point it looks obvious that the clouds will reach us, but the question really is if anything can reach the surface (precip-wise). I guess we shall see...

[Stratosphere747]

Very little of what is being seen on the radar is even reaching the ground...

[Lindaloo]

I saw the white on satellite and wondered if you guys were seeing snow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cloud deck (and possible light precip.) is right on our doorstep now:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... te&large=1

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just noticed a funny typo in the Corpus Christi AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER OLD MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE TX PROVIDING FOR DRY
LOW LEVELS WITH KVCT REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S. WITH SNOW
ALOFT FALLING INTO A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WET-BULB TO BELOW FREEZING PRODUCING
LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN WITH SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN TIER CWA DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 3 FEET WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 1/2 AN INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CWA...AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHETHER AREAS SEE
LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW DEPENDS SOLELY ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
A BETTER PICTURE OF THE EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS AND 00Z SOUNDING DATA
COMES IN.

Well let's hope they will remain below 3 feet! lol.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

:lol:

I just noticed a funny typo in the Corpus Christi AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CST FRI DEC 8 2006

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER OLD MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE TX PROVIDING FOR DRY
LOW LEVELS WITH KVCT REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S. WITH SNOW
ALOFT FALLING INTO A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO WET-BULB TO BELOW FREEZING PRODUCING
LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN WITH SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN TIER CWA DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 3 FEET WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 1/2 AN INCH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CWA...AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHETHER AREAS SEE
LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW DEPENDS SOLELY ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
A BETTER PICTURE OF THE EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS AND 00Z SOUNDING DATA
COMES IN.

Well let's hope they will remain below 3 feet! lol.

Whew ! That's a relief. I was thinking about going on Ebay and buying snow blower.

[Extremeweatherguy]

clouds are starting to work into my area right now, and they look just like the snowclouds I remember from North Carolina! Even if we don't get any...it is still cool to see the wintery-looking sky.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just saw on ABC13 that they got a phone call reporting flurries down in Palacios! This is now officially into the Houston warning area. However, there still remains to be any kind of winter weather statement or special weather statement to mention this.

[TexasSam]

I have the camera charged up and ready. Just like Christmas Eve 2004.

[Yankeegirl]

I have some pretty dark clouds to my south, and yes they do look like snow clouds.... Since I am a Yankee, from Rhode Island, I remember what they look like...

[Extremeweatherguy]

dewpoints are rising a lot this evening as the temperature falls...

here are the latest dewpoints:

Tomball = 17F (up from 11F)
IAH = 12F (up from 10F)
Sugar Land = 13F (up from 7F)

Also, in places where light precip/virga is occuring (Palacios for instnace) the dewpoint is up in the middle to upper 20s.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like the precip is trying to inch its way towards the Houston area.

Sleet in Wharton and Matagorda counties. Have to think the Houston AFD may update.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I have some pretty dark clouds to my south, and yes they do look like snow clouds.... Since I am a Yankee, from Rhode Island, I remember what they look like...

thanks for your eyes, we natives dont know what even snow looks like haha! oh wait I remember what it look like back in '73 I like 4 that was tooooooooooooooo long ago!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Looks like the precip is trying to inch its way towards the Houston area.

Sleet in Wharton and Matagorda counties. Have to think the Houston AFD may update.

getting winter precip back home!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

Well let's see.....we've had sleet/snow in FL, southern GA, and now south TX so far this year. I'm feeling cheated. El Nino, send something my way.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ice Pelts and sleet at my house in NW Corpus. Yahoo!