Typhoon 25w (Utor) in WPac

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 09.1N 135.8E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 09.7N 132.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT =

[Chacor]

070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 134.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS WILL BE REACHED
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48, BEFORE TD 25W MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE PHIL-
IPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//

[Chacor]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "SENIANG"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 07 December 2006
The tropical depression east of Visayas is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will be named "SENIANG"
This disturbance is not likely to affect any part of the country within the next 24 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 09.5N 135.0E POOR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 10.3N 131.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT =

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z DEC TO 101200Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CON-
VECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER. AN SSMI/S PASS INDICATES WEAK BANDING ON THE NORTH-
EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE.
B. TD 25W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING FROM GUAM
THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH ZONAL MIDLATITUDE PATTERN,
NO MODIFICATIONS TO THE STEERING RIDGE ARE FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72,
AND THUS TD 25W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TD 25W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAG-
ERY REVEALS A TUTT CELL CURRENTLY EAST OF GUAM TRACKING WESTWARD.
LINKAGE BETWEEN TD 25W AND THE TUTT CELL WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE PAST TAU 12. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE TC INTERACTS WITH
ISLANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY RE-
INTENSIFICATION AS THE TC MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[P.K.]

0622 has formed.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 10.2N 133.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 10.8N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 091800UTC 11.6N 125.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 101800UTC 12.1N 123.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[P.K.]

[cycloneye]

Sadly,another cyclone for Vietnam.Thankfully this one will pass south from where Supertyphoon Durian made landfall a few days ago in the Philliphines.

Forecast Track

[Aslkahuna]

The JT track has the storm crossing Samar not Leyte and then passing north of Cebu which is not a good track for a strong storm there since the winds would have to cross the mountains on that island. Also, there's a big International Conference due to take place shortly in Cebu City so accomodations there and on Mactan (where the aiirport for Cebu is) are apt to be hard to find on short notice.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

This storm is not looking so good right now. Missing some poleward outflow (ironically, the position of the deep layer high this year has not only driven the storms into the Philippines, but also keeps them weak until reaching the island chain). It has only about 24 hr left for intensification, extrapolating the current velocity. In fact not only is there not poleward outflow but there is some shear and dry air inhibiting outflow in the NW Quadrant. Something has to click and soon if Utor wants to intensify much.

[Chacor]

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0622 UTOR (0622)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[HURAKAN]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0622 UTOR (0622)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 10.7N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 11.0N 123.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 101200UTC 11.3N 119.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 111200UTC 11.4N 116.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT

ALMOST A TYPHOON!!! POOR PEOPLE.

[HURAKAN]

08/1433 UTC 11.2N 128.5E T4.0/4.0 UTOR -- West Pacific Ocean




Utor close to typoon status and trying to see!!!

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 10.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 11.2N 121.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 110000UTC 11.1N 117.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 120000UTC 11.1N 114.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =

[P.K.]

[Chacor]

JTWC calling for a 100-kt TY over the SCS.

[Chacor]

That's an eye feature. "Oh no, not again" should really be the prevalent thought.

[Chacor]

To the east is 94W, which the JMA considers a tropical depression with 25-kt winds.

Floater 1 is now on Utor.

[JonathanBelles]

o jeez here comes th WPAC again!

[Chacor]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SENIANG" {UTOR}
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 09 December 2006
Typhoon "SENIANG" is about to make landfall over Guiuan, Eastern Samar by noon today.

Residents in areas under Public Storm Warning Signals # 2 and # 1 are alerted against flashfloods and landslides. While those residing in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signals # 3 are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surges or big waves.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.

Current storm signals:
Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)
Masbate
Samar Provinces
Leyte Provinces
Northern Cebu
Biliran Island
Dinagat Island

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Sorsogon
Romblon
Aklan
Capiz
Iloilo
Antique
Guimaras
Northern Negros
Rest of Cebu
Bohol
Siargao Island

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Catanduanes
Albay
Southern Mindoro
Burias Island
Calamian Group
Cuyo Island
Rest of Negros
Siquijor
Surigao del Norte
Camiguin Island