Typhoon 25w (Utor) in WPac

[HurricaneBill]

And Utor makes it #6 for the Philippines this year.

[Aslkahuna]

Borongon reported 10 minute winds of 55.9 mph and a pressure of 989 hPa as the center made landfall. Catarman and Masbate are the next stations likely to see the strongest winds. Utor has made landfall in Samar.

Steve

[Chacor]

523
WWPN20 KNES 091005

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
DECEMBER 09 2006 0833Z
.
11.5N 124.8E T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS UTOR (25W)
.
PAST POSITIONS....11.1N 127.0E 08/2033Z IRNIGHT
11.0N 129.9E 08/0833Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...UTOR HAS EMERGED FROM SAMAR ISLAND INTO THE SAMAR SEA
AND APPEARS TO HAVE LOST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INTENSITY. CENTRAL
FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED VERY COLD/DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 04-05Z AMSU AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING CLOUD FILLED EYE PARTIALLY OPEN IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CDO PATTERN WITH 2 DEGREE DIAMETER GIVES DT=4.5. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT CURVE GIVES MET=4.0 WHICH AGREES WITH PT=4.0.
.
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 09/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
RUMINSKI

[wxmann_91]

A weak, obscure eye was formed, FWIW. Good show of what tremendously good environment can do even right after a storm makes landfall.

[Aslkahuna]

Making landfall in the Visayas is different than making landfall in Luzon as the land sea mix and the smaller sized islands and lower elevation terrain doesn't weaken the storms as much as the mountain wall of eastern Luzon does. JTWC did a study on this and found a lesser amount of weakening for storms tracking through the Visayas.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The way its looking, I would not be at all suprized once over the south China sea, it bombed. I mean even strengthing into a cat4. Nice Cdo, with eye trying to clear out. If it can move south of that large island, then theres all but going to happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I knew it looked impressive, but wow.


09/2033 UTC 12.1N 122.0E T6.0/6.0 UTOR -- West Pacific Ocean

[wxmann_91]

Matt, where've you been? Glad to see you back and tracking the tropics.

Utor has been bombing and the eye continues to clear out. IF it can make it south of the island (Mindoro), it will continue to intensify rapidly, as Matt stated. After about 48 hr it should start weakening again as cooler SST's, shear, and dry air start taking their toll. The SCS is traditionally an unfavorable place for TC's this time of year.

[dwsqos2]

NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 12.2N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 12.4N 118.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 120000UTC 13.2N 114.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 130000UTC 14.3N 111.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

[P.K.]

That's the second 15kt increase in a three hour period during the history of this TC although the pressure drop of 20hPa is double the 10hPa change in previous case.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wxmann_91, taking writing class this fall, which hopefully I can go full time next term for the winter. Then work my way up for a transfer hopefully in the next year or two. Also taking some time off, and getting ready for next season.

The cyclone appears, that it is about ready to make landfall over the southern part of the island. Althrough once it makes it into the China sea, I expect it to bomb into a cat4.

[Chacor]

You might not be wrong there, JTWC is calling for a Cat 5 monster.

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 121.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.0N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.9N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.1N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.5N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.3N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 121.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//

[CrazyC83]

I'd say we'll have Super Typhoon Utor within 12 hours at this rate.

[HurricaneBill]

This isn't good. Are there any major towns or cities in Utor's path? Or volcanoes?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say its possible this could bomb into a cat5, as they say. Not intill it clears that islands; because it needs to have a perfect set up for it to do so. The south China as Wxmann91, said, is not normally to favorable this time of year. We will need to see, as it makes it back into the open ocean. Hong kong need to watch this, if the JTWC is right...They have been right many times so far this year.

[wxmann_91]

This isn't good. Are there any major towns or cities in Utor's path? Or volcanoes?

I don't think so:

http://www.filipinolanguagemelbourne.or ... es-map.jpg

Frankly I think JTWC's way too bullish. The waters are too cool to support a cat 5. The air is too stable (note stratocumulus off to the NW). I'd go with the JMA attm.

[CrazyC83]

A Cat 3 is still very significant - wasn't Xangsane a Cat 3 at landfall?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah, true Wxmann, about the China sea supporting a cat5. But over the next 12 hours once it clears that island. I would think it has some chance of doing so, or coming close. More of a chance of a cat4.

[HurricaneBill]

Frankly I think JTWC's way too bullish. The waters are too cool to support a cat 5. The air is too stable (note stratocumulus off to the NW). I'd go with the JMA attm.

I agree. The SCS usually doesn't support anything higher than a low-end Category 4.

[dwsqos2]

AAXX 10031 98531 11405 83222 10248 20240 49848 57158 86566 8652/

At 0300Z, San Jose reported northwest winds of 22 m/s and a pressure of 984.8 hPa.