Typhoon 25w (Utor) in WPac

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Landfall, so no strengthing, intill it moves back over the ocean.

[HurricaneBill]

A Cat 3 is still very significant - wasn't Xangsane a Cat 3 at landfall?

I think Xangsane was a strong Category 4 at landfall on the Philippines.

Or do you mean Vietnam? Xangsane landfalled as a Category 1 on Vietnam.

[Chacor]

JTWC's reasoning:

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z DEC TO 150000Z DEC 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, TY 25W HAS
INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 25W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 72, TY 25W WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR NEAR HAINAN ISLAND,
CHINA. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. TY 25W WILL INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATALOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, TY 25W WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DUE TO
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 092157Z SSMI IMAGE. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONCERNING THE IMPACT OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN CHINA. THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STR, WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE WEAKNESS NEAR
HAINAN ISLAND. ASSUMING THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS SUFFICIENTLY, TY 25W
WILL TRACK POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN WEAKENING UNDER
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE ECMWF, NCEP GFS AND NOGAPS AIDS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO. IN AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR MAY NOT
FULLY DEVELOP, CAUSING TY 25W TO STAIR-STEP POLEWARD BEFORE
RETURNING TO A WESTWARD TRACK. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED
BY THE EGRR AND GFDN AIDS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY BE
LESS IN THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO DUE TO RESTRICTED OUTFLOW.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[wxmann_91]

I know this might be a stupid question, but...

Is that snowcover or stratus over China and Vietnam?

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/large.html? ... 1&mode=UTC

I heard that eastern Chinese mainland hit freezing today.

[JonathanBelles]

cold to typhoons lol

[Coredesat]

Those are stratus clouds - they show up on the satellite images on SSD.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't like the look of this forecast for Utor.



Looks like it is forecast to become a Category 5 hurricane and hit China as a Category 3. It's right now a major hurricane with 115 mph winds and it is over the Philippines.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Xangsane had winds of 80kts (10 min average) according to JMA at landfall in Vietnam. JTWC had it at 90kts - cat 2. I was in the southern eyewall when it came ashore and it was pretty intense!! My avatar picture was taken at that time.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 12.8N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 13.1N 116.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 120600UTC 13.9N 113.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 130600UTC 14.6N 110.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

[montrealboy]

Hong Kong Weather Observatory is watching Utor closely.
The question is: Will Utor plow into Vietnam or Southwest China as a strong system or will it recurve northeast near Hong Kong as a weak system?

[CrazyC83]

A Cat 3 is still very significant - wasn't Xangsane a Cat 3 at landfall?

I think Xangsane was a strong Category 4 at landfall on the Philippines.

Or do you mean Vietnam? Xangsane landfalled as a Category 1 on Vietnam.

For some reason, I thought it weakened before the Phillipine landfall.

[wxmann_91]

Hong Kong Weather Observatory is watching Utor closely.
The question is: Will Utor plow into Vietnam or Southwest China as a strong system or will it recurve northeast near Hong Kong as a weak system?

[img][/img]

Probably won't make landfall as a strong system. If it goes onto land, it will do it as probably a TS, and that's the southern option (if it goes for a more northern landfall option, it won't make it to land before dying). The western and northern SCS is extremely detrimental to tropical systems this time of year. Note that stratus in eastern Vietnam and China (although for the latter, since it has been visible for a month now, I still think it's snowcover).

It has about 36 hr left for intensification if it keeps its current rate of velocity. And it's looking terrible now. Clearly, the thermodynamics isn't going to support the system anymore.

[Aslkahuna]

That low stratus in southern China and northern Viet Nam (called "crachin") is about as persistent as fog is along the northern CA coast in July and August-in fact, southern China is one of, if not the most cloudy area on the Planet. It's a combination of persistent upslope flow and moisture trapped under an inversion..

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

Xangsane had winds of 80kts (10 min average) according to JMA at landfall in Vietnam. JTWC had it at 90kts - cat 2. I was in the southern eyewall when it came ashore and it was pretty intense!! My avatar picture was taken at that time.

Oh, I thought your avatar picture was from Saomai. Were you there for Saomai?

Anyways, for some reason I thought Xangsane had landfalled on Vietnam with 70kt winds, so 90kts is rather intense. Usually the strongest landfalls on Vietnam are low-end Category 3s. An example would be Typhoon Zack in 1995.

[Typhoon Hunter]

One reason I went to Vietnam for Xangsane was becuase they don't often get hit by strong typhoons. Even though it weakened into a cat 2 at landfall it was still the strongest storm to hit for over a decade. He's a link for typhoon Zack in 1995:
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/199521.html.en

Saomai struck about 3 weeks before I moved to Shanghai so I couldn't get there. However should there be a Saomai mark II next year I will definitely be there. Actually that's my main aim for next year, a mainland China typhoon intercept.

[shah8]

I'm pretty sure that alot of Saomai's damage and death toll was covered up, and that it was the most serious typhoon and not Billis. I have to wonder whether the Chinese gov't would actually allow storm hunters all that much free reign to cover landfalls..

[Typhoon Hunter]

It'll just be a case of me "being in the wrong place at the wrong time" if you know what I mean. Much of the east coast is heavily industrialised with many large cities and therefore increasing number of foreign visitors. I don't think it'll be too much problem if I stay quite low key.

Having said that I had no problems in Vietnam, which is also a communist dictatorship, and I told the locals exactly what I was up to. They were extremely obliging and very helpful

[Chacor]

782
TPPN10 PGTW 111215

A. TYPHOON 25W (UTOR)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 13.7N/1

D. 117.0E/9

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (11/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.10
ON LOG10 SPIRAL ADDED 0.5 FOR BF YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT. PT
AND MET AGREE. DEEP CNVCTN HAS REDEVELOPED IN PAST 3
HRS.

DELEO

[Chacor]

12Z:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 15.5N 114.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 17.2N 112.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 141200UTC 18.2N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 151200UTC 17.5N 110.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT

[P.K.]

Since downgraded to a STS and then a TS.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 17.6N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 17.4N 112.4E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION