Cyclone season 2006/2007 is getting into gear!

[Calasanjy]

Deviating from the popular topic of the recently released forecasts for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, what are your predictions for the cyclone season south of the Equator? Coming off of a relatively inactive season (despite the chaos around Australia the season as a whole only saw 23 systems warned by the JTWC), will this summer maintain a similar reduced pattern of cyclonic activity?

Thus far, 4 storms have formed:

01P/XAVIER - 115 KTS per JTWC
02P/YANI - 65 KTS
03S/ANITA - 45 KTS
04P - 35 KTS

My forecasts (more detailed, storm-by-storm predictions coming soon):

Southwest Indian Ocean:

10 warned from JTWC, 9 named cyclones, of which 5 are Tropical Cyclones, 2 are Intense Tropical Cyclones, and 1 Very Intense Tropical Cyclone (25S/HUMBA - March, 145 KTS, Landfall central Madagascar near Antalaha 100 KTS)
1 Tropical Cyclone (08S/CLOVIS - January, 85 KTS) passes 100 miles from Mauritius and La Reunion - light wind damage and minor flooding
Another Tropical Cyclone (15S/KARA - ENOK, January-February, 75 KTS) originates from Perth AOR (Western Australia region)

All this is mere conjecture and has virtually no scientific basis, but I'm just interested in what everyone thinks about this season...

More predictions coming later, got to study....

[AussieMark]

since this is a warm ENSO event in the pacific the storms are more eastward towards the south pacific Islands as we have already seen this season so far. and less frequency around australia due to more shear across Australia in warm ENSO events.


Just remember JTWC is not the official agency of the southern Hemisphere

its either

RSMC Nadi
RSMC Brisbane
RSMC Darwin
RSMC Perth
RSMC La Reunion

[Chacor]

Actually, BOM is TCWC not RSMC.

RSMC La Réunion for SouthWest Indian Ocean (naming rights to Madagascar west of 55E and to Mauritius east of 55E, hence some Moderate Tropical Storms (Tempête tropicale moderée) don't get named because either agency didn't agree it was 34 kt)

TCWC Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, Port Moresby for Australian region (each has its own naming scheme), with Jakarta doing land advisories for a small portion south of the equator (not recognised as a TCWC)

RSMC Nadi and TCWC Wellington for South Pacific Ocean (only one naming list, that of Fiji's. The CPHC provides satfixes for South Pacific storms as well)

[HurricaneBill]

I wonder if we'll see a cyclone develop or pass far east near Tahiti. Usually that happens when an El Nino occurs.

Example: Cyclone Nisha/Orama 1983 Cyclone Veena 1983 Cyclone Ursula 1998

However, there have been occasions where La Ninas will produce a cyclone in that area.

Example: Cyclone Frances 1976 Cyclone Hinano 1989 Cyclone Kim 2000

[Ian]

Cyclone Rita of 2001 also formed east of Tahiti, but I can't remember if it was an El Nino year or not....

[AussieMark]

2001 was the back end of a La Nina event

[Calasanjy]

Alright, as promised, here is my full forecast for this cyclone season, insomuch as JTWC warned systems are concerned:

JTWC warned systems:

Number Name Month Basin Intensity Landfall/comment

01P Xavier Nov SPAC 115
02P Yani Nov SPAC 65
03S Anita Nov/Dec SWIO 45
04P ------- Nov/Dec SPAC 35
05P Zita Dec SPAC 100 French Polynesia
06S ------- Dec/Jan WAUS 35
07S Bondo Jan SWIO 60
08S Clovis Jan SWIO 85 Mauritius/La Reunion
09P Arthur Jan SPAC 70
10S Isobel Jan WAUS 65 Australia

11S -------- Jan SWIO 40 SE Africa
12P George Jan/Feb NAUS 95 Australia
13S Dora Jan/Feb SWIO 55 Madagascar
14S Jacob Feb WAUS 125 Australia
15S Kara/Enok Feb WAUS/SWI 75
16P Becky Feb SPAC 140 French Polynesia
17P Cliff Feb SPAC 90 Coexists with 16P
18S Favio Feb SWIO 75
19P Daman Feb/Mar SPAC 115
20S -------- Feb WAUS 30 Australia
21P Nelson Feb/Mar EAUS 85 New Caledonia
22S Gamede Mar SWIO 110 Madagascar
23P Elisa Mar SPAC 75 Niue vicinity
24S Lee Mar WAUS 55 Australia
25S Humba Mar SWIO 145 Madagascar
26P Helen Mar NAUS 60 Australia
27P Funa Mar/Apr SPAC 105 French Polynesia
28P Odette Apr EAUS 50
29S Indlada Apr SWIO 55
30S Melanie Apr WAUS 100 Australia
31P Gene May SPAC 65

Understand this prediction is scientifically unfounded. I'm just experimenting to see how close to the real numbers this will come.

Curiosly, the Southern Hemisphere hasn't had extremely active seasons this decade, when you compare the number of storms in recent years to seasons like 1996/1997 (38 systems per JTWC), 1997/1998 (37 systems), and 1998/1999 (31 systems). I think that 2006/2007 will switch course to be the most active season this decade (number-wise, not intensity-wise). I'd be interested to hear everyone else's opinions.

I'll post predicted track maps within the coming days.

[AussieMark]

just remember Australia sees significantly less activity in warm ENSO cycles. and Fiji sees significantly more.