Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[KatDaddy]

I second that Yankee!!! That was an amazing weather event for the Upper TX Coast and S TX.

[Portastorm]

Cold (or below normal temp) pattern still looks good for Christmas week for us in Texas and Southern Plains.

The 264 hr run from the 6z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

The 264 hr from the GFS ensembles:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 64_us.html

The 7 day from the 0z run of the Euro (yes it is warm for us but look to our west and northwest and the massive trough set up, poised to move across the Plains):

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif


All in all, I still feel confident we will see a good chilldown come Christmas week. As for the white stuff and all of that ... I'll leave that to EWG to conjure up!

[Kelarie]

Come on Porta, give us your prediction. Be the first up to the plate. We will see a white Christmas? We will we have a Christmas were we will not be running the A/C?

[Portastorm]

Come on Porta, give us your prediction. Be the first up to the plate. We will see a white Christmas? We will we a Christmas were we will not be running the A/C?

Kelarie ... twist my rubber arm why don't ya?!

Right now, I highly doubt we will see a "white Christmas" in our area. My best guess right now is a high temp on Christmas day in the low 50s and a low near 30. No wintry precip but we won't be running the A/C either. {Caveat: But I reserve the right to change this forecast at any time in the future.}

[Tireman4]

Dang it Porta. Go out on limb. Live a little. Make the prediction. Have a Dr Pepper and say we (Houston and or Austin) will have some white stuff. LOL

[aggiecutter]

The morning Ensembles show cold air in place on Christmas day with a possible overrunning situation for Texas.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 2_usbg.gif

[jasons2k]

Check out the article in today's Chronicle about Weathermen.

I posted it in the Off Topic forum. It's the kinda misinformed stuff that makes my blood boil....

[KatDaddy]

The Great Christmas Snow of 2004 link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/xmasevesnow04.htm

[southerngale]

Those pictures make me sooooo jealous. I want to play in snow like that!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Right now, here is my prediction for Christmas:

I predict below normal temperatures with an increased chance of precipitation. I am not sure yet exactly how cold it will be, but based on where the pattern is going I think we will be below the average temperatures.

As for a white christmas...I think the chances are likely slim to none right now (simply because it has only happened once or twice for this area of TX). However, I do think the chances may be better than normal this holiday due to us potentially being in a colder, wetter pattern at the time.

As for what I wish for this holiday:

3-6" of snow that falls on the 24th and melts on the 26th!

That would be perfect for me.

[jeff]

I second that Yankee!!! That was an amazing weather event for the Upper TX Coast and S TX.

It was a historic event for sure. I am somewhat amazed that it is forgoten so easily when talking to people about past snow events. I do not think many realized how big of an event it was, not just because it was Christmas Eve/Day, but because of the incredible totals. To get that kind of snow on those two days is simply incredible and I venture that none of us will see it again in out lifetime in S or SE TX.

[KatDaddy]

Been there done that EWG in 2004

[jasons2k]

I'll post this here instead of the "other" thread in the "other" forum. It's too much of a chore to keep up with them all.

Anyway - an interesting discussion from the NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE...SUNNY SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR MORE NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FULL SUN TOMORROW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY WARM INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. WE COULD SEE
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS
THAT THIS WEAKNESS GENERATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND A RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK
AND HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE`LL PROBABLY END UP
SEEING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO LOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD CHANGE STARTING AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HAVE
RAISED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES JUST A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE MUCH HIGHER FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>1.50 INCHES).
A POSSIBLE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

[jasons2k]

My $.02 on the Christmas predictions (i.e. guesses):

Considering it's 13 days away - almost two full weeks away - no matter what the models show, we have just as much of a chance of it being in the 70's as we do in the 40's. I don't think we'll have a meaningful idea until we get to about the 20th.

[double D]

My $.02 on the Christmas predictions (i.e. guesses):

Considering it's 13 days away - almost two full weeks away - no matter what the models show, we have just as much of a chance of it being in the 70's as we do in the 40's. I don't think we'll have a meaningful idea until we get to about the 20th.

Especially since were dealing with the long range GFS.

It can show Texas having a blizzard one day and then have us in the 80's the next I wouldn't put to much stock in the what the GFS shows until it is about 5 or 6 days out. Although it is fun to make predictions and see who ends up being the closest.

My prediction based on pure guessing and climatology. (Central Texas area)

Christmas Eve: High in the upper 50's with cloudy skies
Low in the upper 30's with some rain in the area.

Christmas Day: High in the lower 50's under partly cloudy skies.

[Johnny]

This is what it should read jschlitz....

THESE MUCH HIGHER FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>1.50 INCHES).
A POSSIBLE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IF the 18Z GFS happened to be correct (and that is a big IF), then I think our dreams of a white christmas would be correct! Check it out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml

Can you say major winter weather event?

If this played out, we would be talking about ice, snow and cold for most of the state (even into south TX). It would be a crazy scenario (especially for those missed by the 2004 storm).

[weatherrabbit_tx]

hope its not a tease, cant take this ride and getting stuck on the bottom with a cold rain instead on top with a big snowstorm!

[Yankeegirl]

Maybe we can make a deal with the weather Gods and make it a yearly tradition to have a white Christmas/Eve!!! Who is with me?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Maybe we can make a deal with the weather Gods and make it a yearly tradition to have a white Christmas/Eve!!! Who is with me?

I'm up for that! lol.