Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

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weatherrabbit_tx
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#201 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Tue Dec 12, 2006 9:21 pm

little snow for a small hurricane? no no that wouldnt work :think:
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#202 Postby Johnny » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:52 pm

I'm with you on that yankeegirl, especially since I didn't even see a snowflake back on christmas of 2004.

Hey EWG, did you get any snow back on Christmas of 2004? I don't remember if you did or not.
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#203 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Dec 12, 2006 10:55 pm

i'd settle for some snow and a small hurricane. i like exciting weather.
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#204 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:02 pm

Johnny wrote:I'm with you on that yankeegirl, especially since I didn't even see a snowflake back on christmas of 2004.

Hey EWG, did you get any snow back on Christmas of 2004? I don't remember if you did or not.
I actually was not here during Christmas 2004. I was in an even warmer Orlando, Fl at the time watching a cold rain fall in 55-degree temperatures...not very exciting. Supposedly though, according to people I have talked to, my immediate area did recieve some flurries (but no accumulation) during the christmas eve 2004 event.
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#205 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:26 pm

Christmas 2004. What memories indeed. The only Christmas to date where my kids were less interested in their presents.

Good link of graphs, radar and sattelite shots as well as pics from the NWS Corpus Christi website found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/stories/Chr ... _2004.html


Some of pics from that event.


Downtown Corpus
Image

Kingsville
Image
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#206 Postby Johnny » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:26 pm

Now I remember. I'm not sure exactly where you live in the Spring area but snow was accumulating off of Rankin Rd and I-45 during the afternoon on the 24th. That's about a 25 to 30 minute drive from my house in Conroe. Dang the luck.
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#207 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:39 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Christmas 2004. What memories indeed. The only Christmas to date where my kids were less interested in their presents.

Good link of graphs, radar and sattelite shots as well as pics from the NWS Corpus Christi website found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/stories/Chr ... _2004.html


Some of pics from that event.


Downtown Corpus
http://www-2.kristv.com/coppermine/albu ... %20028.jpg

Kingsville
http://www.tamuk.edu/news/2005/january/ ... ges/19.jpg


The most amazing pictures have to be the ones in Victoria though:

Image

Image

Image

A snowfall like that just doesn't even seem possible this far south! It is truly a crazy sight.

The even more amazing thing is that Houston received nearly 2-times that amount back in 1895 (under an even colder airmass). Now THAT would have been something to see! I couldn't even imagine the reaction of this place if a similar situation happened today. People would be, for the most part, clueless on what to do. And if it hit during a workday, mass panic and chaos would likely ensue. Hard to believe that it actually has happened before.
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#208 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:58 pm

EWG.
Victoria had about a foot of snow. Funny little sidenote. A few days after Christmas we went up to San Antonio and I talked to a lady from Minniesota who kind of laughed about are little snow until she heard about our snow totals. She did admitted to date we had more snow fall that they did as they were having a dry fall and winter season.


My old neighborhood on the far northwest side of Corpus looks like those pics. While the CC Airport reported just under 5 inches, I had almost 7 and I live about 12 miles from the airport. If I can get around to and learn how to download pics to photbucket, I'll post my pics on here

Better yet, let the GFS be correct andm let's have a round two this Christmas. Yes, I know wishful thinking. :lol: :roll:
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#209 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:10 am

00Z GFS continues the trend of very cold air (except this time the 24th instead of the 25th), but it also shows considerably less moisture:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

If this run were to verify, it would mean a cold holiday, but no snow.
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#210 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:15 am

Cold is ok, I guess....
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#211 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:45 am

Interesting to note though that the GFS shows 3-consecutive cold snaps in the works between next week and into the end of the month. At the very least...a much colder pattern looks more and more certain for that period:

1st cold snap:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^front arriving next Thursday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^Colder air filters in by Friday^^

2nd cold snap:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Cold air spills in on Christmas eve^^

3rd cold snap:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _372.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml
^^Ice, snow, rain and cold reach TX on December 28th^^


These later cold spells are very far out, so exact temps. and precip. potential is uncertain...but the main idea is the pattern itself. If we get into a pattern full of repeated cold shots and lots of moisture (like the model is showing), then things could get interesting at some point for us.
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#212 Postby Johnny » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:19 am

Go check out Donsutherland's December thoughts. He is forecasting much below to below temps for the southern plains. That's good to hear.
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#213 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:24 am

The reliable Ensembles say the cold is coming and in a big way.

The morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 64_us.html
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#214 Postby jasons2k » Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:53 am

BTW - Maybe old news, but - there is a book at HEB called "SNOW". It's about the snowstorm of 2004. They have them at the checkout lines.
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#215 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:11 am

aggiecutter wrote:The reliable Ensembles say the cold is coming and in a big way.

The morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 64_us.html


Aggiecutter, I am glad you posted. I was going to post this morning about the ensemble runs I saw ... but figured you'd do it!

You're absolutely right ... the ensembles and operational runs strongly suggest a major cold outbreak Christmas week with some potential for precipitation. This is going to be fun to watch future runs ... :wink:
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#216 Postby Johnny » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:08 pm

And let the games begin!
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#217 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:24 pm

Its funny becasue the accuweather site isnt reflcting the cole weather outbreak,. They are still calling for highs in the 60's for Christmas day here.... Go figure... and when do we think this cold air is going to make it this way?
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#218 Postby f5 » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Christmas 2004. What memories indeed. The only Christmas to date where my kids were less interested in their presents.

Good link of graphs, radar and sattelite shots as well as pics from the NWS Corpus Christi website found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/stories/Chr ... _2004.html


Some of pics from that event.


Downtown Corpus
http://www-2.kristv.com/coppermine/albu ... %20028.jpg

Kingsville
http://www.tamuk.edu/news/2005/january/ ... ges/19.jpg


The most amazing pictures have to be the ones in Victoria though:

Image

Image

Image

A snowfall like that just doesn't even seem possible this far south! It is truly a crazy sight.

The even more amazing thing is that Houston received nearly 2-times that amount back in 1895 (under an even colder airmass). Now THAT would have been something to see! I couldn't even imagine the reaction of this place if a similar situation happened today. People would be, for the most part, clueless on what to do. And if it hit during a workday, mass panic and chaos would likely ensue. Hard to believe that it actually has happened before.


This look more like a photo around the chicago area rather than south texas
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#219 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:29 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Its funny becasue the accuweather site isnt reflcting the cole weather outbreak,. They are still calling for highs in the 60's for Christmas day here.... Go figure... and when do we think this cold air is going to make it this way?


Hey Yankeegirl, the last few GFS runs suggest around Dec. 21-22nd time frame. Cold air arrives.
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#220 Postby Opal storm » Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:54 pm

During the Christmas 2004 event we didn't get any snow over here ( :grrr: ),but I remember Christmas eve our high temps barely made it above 32 degrees,some areas didn't even make it out of the 20's all day here in NW FL.We did have scattered sleet showers in the area,during our Christmas Eve party all the kids ran outside to play in it.Christmas night I actually had a couple of inches of sleet on the ground,it was pretty awesome but I would've preferred a couple of inches of the white stuff.

:darrow: Intellicast Radar of Gulf Coast Christmas 2004 snow. :darrow:
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/decem ... y+2Z2Z.gif

:darrow: Intellicast Radar of the snow in Texas :darrow:
http://www.mahpro.com/xmassnow/images/Radar%20Image.GIF
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