WPAC Tropical Depression [ex- Trami/26W]
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WPAC Tropical Depression [ex- Trami/26W]
WWJP25 RJTD 161200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 09.4N 146.0E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
Not expected to develop into a TS within 24 hours, so no full public bulletins/warnings from JMA yet.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 09.4N 146.0E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
Not expected to develop into a TS within 24 hours, so no full public bulletins/warnings from JMA yet.
Last edited by Chacor on Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:13 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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JTWC ABPW reissued...
ABPW10 PGTW 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170030Z-170600ZDEC2006//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 147.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD LOW
LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 162114Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Not sure what the JTWC is on, because it looks quite good and the JMA definitely expect a TS.
ABPW10 PGTW 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170030Z-170600ZDEC2006//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 147.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF YAP.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD LOW
LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 162114Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Not sure what the JTWC is on, because it looks quite good and the JMA definitely expect a TS.
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404
TPPN10 PGTW 170035
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM
B. 16/2330Z
C. 10.9N/0
D. 141.6E/2
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (16/2330Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC
40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .75 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
FOR AN UNREPRESENTATIVE DT OF 3.0. MET IS ALSO
UNREPRESENTATIVE AT 2.0. DBO PT OF 2.5.
TPPN10 PGTW 170035
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM
B. 16/2330Z
C. 10.9N/0
D. 141.6E/2
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (16/2330Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC
40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .75 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
FOR AN UNREPRESENTATIVE DT OF 3.0. MET IS ALSO
UNREPRESENTATIVE AT 2.0. DBO PT OF 2.5.
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WTPQ30 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.6N 141.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.6N 141.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
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- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
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- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Tokyo
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!
Have been keeping an eye on this one. JMA seemed to drop it for a while yesterday but I log on today and see a tropical storm is imminent. Look like another for the Philippines!
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WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT]
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.3N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 140.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z,
172100Z AND 180300Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT]
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.3N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 140.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z,
172100Z AND 180300Z.//
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- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Tokyo
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z DEC TO 200000Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS POSITIONED EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA, PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMP-
ORARILY RE-ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED
DYNAMIC AIDS (WBAR, JTYM, AND JGSM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE
AIDS.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR, BUT IMPROVING,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z DEC TO 200000Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS POSITIONED EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA, PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMP-
ORARILY RE-ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED
DYNAMIC AIDS (WBAR, JTYM, AND JGSM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE
AIDS.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR, BUT IMPROVING,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 12.5N 139.0E POOR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 13.5N 133.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT =
JTWC's forecast track is now slightly more encouraging, it's going for a hit around Chebi/Cimaron territory, where it's more sparsely populated. That's quite a large wind field though.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 12.5N 139.0E POOR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 13.5N 133.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT =
JTWC's forecast track is now slightly more encouraging, it's going for a hit around Chebi/Cimaron territory, where it's more sparsely populated. That's quite a large wind field though.

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WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 13.1N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 19
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.5N 132.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.1N 125.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 15.3N 120.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0623 TRAMI (0623) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 13.1N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 19
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 14.5N 132.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.1N 125.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 15.3N 120.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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All the more JTWC are calling for a Cimaron/Chebi-like path now, hitting the sparsely populated northeast Luzon, rather than Albay.
They also don't think it'll last long past the Philippines:
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z DEC TO 201200Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH A DEVELOP-
ING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171051Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDCATES THAT TD 26W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF TAIWAN. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA, PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMP-
ORARILY RE-ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS (WBAR, JTYM, JGSM, EGRR, ECMWF, AND NOGAPS) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATES THAT THE NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM AND UKMO MODELS ALL POORLY
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM (TOO WEAK OR AS A WAVE) AND CONTINUE TO DEPICT
A VERY WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN AN
ERRONEOUS TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (ECMWF TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12). WBAR REFLECTS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON SYNOPTIC
REASONING, WHICH REVEALS A MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LONGWAVE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN ASIA, AND PERSISTENCE. AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ANOTHER DEVELOPING, STRONG 500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 96 AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE RECURV-
ATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
They also don't think it'll last long past the Philippines:
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z DEC TO 201200Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER WITH A DEVELOP-
ING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171051Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDCATES THAT TD 26W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF TAIWAN. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA, PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMP-
ORARILY RE-ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS (WBAR, JTYM, JGSM, EGRR, ECMWF, AND NOGAPS) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATES THAT THE NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM AND UKMO MODELS ALL POORLY
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM (TOO WEAK OR AS A WAVE) AND CONTINUE TO DEPICT
A VERY WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN AN
ERRONEOUS TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (ECMWF TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12). WBAR REFLECTS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON SYNOPTIC
REASONING, WHICH REVEALS A MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LONGWAVE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN ASIA, AND PERSISTENCE. AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ANOTHER DEVELOPING, STRONG 500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 96 AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE RECURV-
ATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
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- senorpepr
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Looking at the satellite loop, the cold front east of Japan and the Ryukyu Islands sure is tearing up Trami. Plenty of shear to the north of the system, plus the strong presence of stratocumulus behind the front doesn't look too storm-friendly.
After looking at the latest JTWC forecast, it appears they agree. They have weakened Trami into a tropical depression, although they do have it reaching (briefly) to typhoon status. The best piece of news is it looks like Luzon will be spared, albeit some precip from the SW rainbands.

After looking at the latest JTWC forecast, it appears they agree. They have weakened Trami into a tropical depression, although they do have it reaching (briefly) to typhoon status. The best piece of news is it looks like Luzon will be spared, albeit some precip from the SW rainbands.

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