2006 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Reports Thread

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CrazyC83
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#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:39 am

I still don't think Ernesto was a hurricane in the Caribbean. The pressure was too high (992 should not equal a hurricane if you don't have the data to back it up) and there was no actual evidence of hurricane-force winds.

I would have officially classified it as Tropical Storm Ernesto.
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#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:44 am

All that is left is the first "real" hurricane, Florence? Will she be upgraded to Category 2 based on the flight data?
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#63 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:51 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The pressure was too high (992 should not equal a hurricane if you don't have the data to back it up) and there was no actual evidence of hurricane-force winds.



Hurricane Danny in 2003 had a pressure of about 1000 mb.
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#64 Postby hurricanetrack » Sun Dec 17, 2006 2:31 am

Re: Ernesto- Jesse Bass and I were down along the beaches of New Hanover county right up against the water with anemometers at 3 meters. Granted, this is nowhere near the official height, but even right at the ocean's edge, with the fetch coming right at us, could we get higher than 64 mph in gusts! Our sustained winds were in the 40s right there at the surface. There is no doubt Ernesto was well on its way to becoming a hurricane but it just ran out of time.

I still remember when Ernesto was forecast to head towards LA/MS near the 29th of August as a category three- wow, wasn't THAT just terrible. Good thing it ended up where it did- even as much as I love studying hurricanes in person, I would never wish something like that on the folks along the central Gulf Coast. Not that I would wish it on anyone, but you get the idea.
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#65 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:42 am

It's official - final numbers are 10, 5, 2.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL502006_Unnamed.pdf
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#66 Postby hurricanetrack » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:30 am

There you go. TS noname makes it a double-digit season for named storms.
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#67 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:28 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The pressure was too high (992 should not equal a hurricane if you don't have the data to back it up) and there was no actual evidence of hurricane-force winds.



Hurricane Danny in 2003 had a pressure of about 1000 mb.


That was an estimate based on little or no surface data and no recon. I suspect Danny's pressure was lower and it was stronger than indicated.
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#68 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:21 pm

Andrew92,I put the unnamed report at the list at first page.Interesting to read that report.It reached peak intensity of 45kts.
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#69 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:30 pm

Thanks Luis.

Yes it was interesting to read that report. I wonder if it came from the same cold front that helped spawn Beryl, as that does not appear to be mentioned in either report.

-Andrew92
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#70 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:36 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Thanks Luis.

Yes it was interesting to read that report. I wonder if it came from the same cold front that helped spawn Beryl, as that does not appear to be mentioned in either report.

-Andrew92


I believe you may be partially correct in that assumption. Surface analysis at the time on July 16 preceding the formation of the unnamed TS showed a mid-level shortwave moving off the Mid-Atlantic region interacting with the weak low that spawned Beryl off the Outer Banks, while the depression that spawned the unnamed tropical storm formed nearby; thus, I too believe that the same surface front and mid-level shortwave synoptic feature in progression at the time that spawned the unnamed TS also partially helped in spawning Beryl.

As an unrelated side note, I also personally believe that Ernesto may be the subject of future reanalysis on it's disputed Caribbean hurricane status - as well as it's intensity at North Carolina landfall - over coming months or years. Over time, it's possible that Ernesto may be downgraded to a tropical storm for it's peak in the Caribbean Sea or it's top intensity per the aforementioned reasons presented by CrazyC83 on the lack of flight-level and surface data, as well as structure data, supporting that it ever attained hurricane status in the Caribbean. It will also be interesting over coming years if Ernesto is reanalyzed to a hurricane at North Carolina landfall. We shall see if either of the two possibilities verify.
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#71 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:53 pm

I have to say, that was a great call by wxman57 that there would be an unnamed TS. Kudos.
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#72 Postby f5 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 3:56 pm

10,5,2 AVERAGE FINALLY
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#73 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:11 pm

dont expect a reanalysis on this ever.

The only reason why previous storms are being reanalyzed is due to the poor flight level to surface conversions used before 1998, and new ship observations that were not examined carefully before. This issue is not present with Ernesto; thus, no reanalysis is necessary
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#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:39 pm

Anyway this sudden discovery should give people a lesson that most of us already know: a tropical storm is just a name when compared to non-tropical lows. The only difference is a closed circulation; the impact will be the same between a 50 mph tropical storm and a 50 mph non-tropical low.
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#75 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Anyway this sudden discovery should give people a lesson that most of us already know: a tropical storm is just a name when compared to non-tropical lows. The only difference is a closed circulation; the impact will be the same between a 50 mph tropical storm and a 50 mph non-tropical low.


I disagree; tropical systems concentrate their energy on a relatively small area, whereas non-tropical systems spread their energy far out. Now, that does mean that at the worst area, tropical systems are far worse, but it also means that bad conditions will spread out farther in a non-tropical system.

Take the huge non-tropical low a week ago that formed near Greenland. Some analyses progged it at 928 mb. It spread strong winds and surge in the United Kingdom, and its front stretched all the way down into the Caribbean, sparking off thunderstorms in Hispaniola.
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#76 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:41 pm

Hooray for my unnamed storm! Seriously, it looked better than 3-4 of the named storms this season...

Image
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#77 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:44 pm

i remeber this storm.
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#78 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:06 pm

I though it was going to be upgraded as a subtropical storm, but tropical storm is very nice!!! 10-5-2, almost a perfect average season!!!
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#79 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:20 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Anyway this sudden discovery should give people a lesson that most of us already know: a tropical storm is just a name when compared to non-tropical lows. The only difference is a closed circulation; the impact will be the same between a 50 mph tropical storm and a 50 mph non-tropical low.


I disagree; tropical systems concentrate their energy on a relatively small area, whereas non-tropical systems spread their energy far out. Now, that does mean that at the worst area, tropical systems are far worse, but it also means that bad conditions will spread out farther in a non-tropical system.

Take the huge non-tropical low a week ago that formed near Greenland. Some analyses progged it at 928 mb. It spread strong winds and surge in the United Kingdom, and its front stretched all the way down into the Caribbean, sparking off thunderstorms in Hispaniola.


928? That is more like a Category 4 hurricane!
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#80 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:23 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
I disagree; tropical systems concentrate their energy on a relatively small area, whereas non-tropical systems spread their energy far out. Now, that does mean that at the worst area, tropical systems are far worse, but it also means that bad conditions will spread out farther in a non-tropical system.

Take the huge non-tropical low a week ago that formed near Greenland. Some analyses progged it at 928 mb. It spread strong winds and surge in the United Kingdom, and its front stretched all the way down into the Caribbean, sparking off thunderstorms in Hispaniola.


That's a really strong non-tropical low. I wonder what's the lowest pressure ever recorded in a non-tropical low or extratropical system?
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