0z NAMS and GFS are insane with QPF around Denver...20+ inch

[PTPatrick]

The weather dudes are all saying that this is a winter storm cancel for Denver...supposedly southerly flow is not favorable for Denver precip, because of downsloap off the Palmer Divide(for those not familiar with CO, its the 7500 ft high chunk of realestate extending from the Front rang out into the plains...thus dividing Denver from Colorado Springs). I am hoping latest models tonight are trending right. It looks like the period of downslope is much shorter thans previously, and that moisture may be enough to win out. But looking at the watch and warning map does not give me any hope... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/

It now looks like, per 0Z nam we have a good shot of some white stuff tomorrow evening
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

then dryslot works over night tomorrow night/wednesday morning...over not just denver but entire fron range...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

if NAM is right...then the snow god shine upon the fron range once again Wednesday afternoon and evening with a multitude of upsloap and wraparound moisture as the comma head forms over NE/KA/CO border area
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

NAM lingers this wraparound basically into the evening thursday...so the in short, if NAM is right then the show is not over for Denver, and it in fact may not get started until wednesday evening when thing wind down south of us.

I will be eagerly awaiting the 0Z GFS to see if the snow is back on for denver as well, as both had previously showed very little through this whole event...hence the Boulder office leaving the Castle Rock to Ft. Collins region out of the fun.

[PTPatrick]

Just looking at the GFS at 0z...it looks like GFS still saying not much for immediate front range. It is were to hold true, denver has a chance for a couple inches tomorrow and then chances of light snow and flurries throughout late wednesday and thursday...ahh...I hate this waiting for snow , especially here in Denver were it is really hard to predict

[HarlequinBoy]

Well, here's to hoping you get some!!!

[Scott Patterson]

NW CO (Steamboat, Craig, Maybell, etc.) has plenty. We've been mighty jealous seeing the temperatures that Denver has been having. Sounds pretty good.

[PTPatrick]

Well, it looks like, for the time being, snow is back on for the front range denver metro area...now looks like up to foot, starting tomorrow morning early, the foot is supposed to be just through late tomorrow night. GFS and NAM hold moderate precip amounts over the denver area well into thursday!

[bob rulz]

Now I'm jealous. Always count on Denver to give you the biggest surprise snowstorms and the biggest complete busts.

[PTPatrick]

The 0Z GFS has upped its QPF for the next 48 hours for denver...looks like it shows somewhere between 1.5 inches of qpf to around 2.0. This in and of it self is nuts, because even at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio, which may be way to low because, well, this is NOT october and snow growth region looks fine...10/1 would yield 20 inches for eastern denver metro. I think the GFS is a little flawed here as well, suspect atht the 2. QPF should really be a little farther south and west, and the GFS has its orographic enhancement misplaced...if that were the case, then denver would be the 2.0+ QPF range, which again would yield 20 inches at a 10:1 ratio(the last storm was somewhere around a 50 to 1 ratio(i.e if GFS and as will show soon, NAM are right Katie abr the door in Denver because this will be the biggest thing since 2003)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif


Now the NAM at 0z went even more nuts with denver QPF...a wapping 2.5 inches + for QPF. What disturbs me with this is the oragraphic placement of the heavy stuff make much more sense. GFS has head snow, between Denver Int. Apt and Fort Morgan, and orographically unfavored region. While NAM is right on for orographics with the heaviest stuff being South and west of Denver(Denver sits at the right angle of 2 higher terrain area, the Front Range Mnts, and the Palmer Divide...so those area on the south and west usually get wapped)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif



So...take home point, unless things change drastically overnight, I think the warnings for denver may be sounding a little more on the, well, dramatic side...and as it is they are already saying 10-20 inches.