El Nino in full tilt -- affect on 2007 tropics?

[dixiebreeze]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mild weather was expected to linger in most of the United States until at least early January, continuing a prolonged spell of balmy conditions that has cut deeply into heating demand, government and private forecasters said on Tuesday.

"We see no end at this point to the moderate weather pattern that virtually all of North America is experiencing," said Mike Palmerino of DTN Meteorlogix. "It is very unlikely anyone in the Northeast is going to get a white Christmas."

The National Weather Service said Tuesday that almost all of the United States, with the exception of parts of southern Texas, would have normal or above normal temperatures for the next two weeks.

The bulk of the above normal temperatures were seen concentrated over the big heating markets of the Midwest and Northeast, the NWS said.

"This is classic El Nino," DTN's Palmerino said, referring to the warming of Pacific Ocean waters that can affect weather around the world.

Matt Rogers of private forecaster EarthSat, said the current mild pattern, which has lingered for almost three weeks already, could last for up to three more.

"Winter patterns like this have the ability to last 4 to 6 weeks," Rogers said.

He added that, despite the warm start, it was still too early to declare winter a dud.

"The energy markets have a tendency to call winter quits by January, but there have been years when we get a late season cold," Rogers said.

[x-y-no]

There's no reason as of now to think the el Nino will last into next hurricane season.

[hurricanetrack]

Nothing in there suggests any impact on the 2007 hurricane season. Let's take a look at things come June 1 and then again on August 15 and go from there. Everything in between matters little in my opinion. As we saw with the 2006 season, it can all change in a matter of weeks.

[hurricanetrack]

One other thing, and if the pro-mets can answer this, that would be great. How is an El Nino causing a nice 588 ridge to be parked in the SW Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

This has been the reason the weather has been so nice so far. That overall pattern has been the dominant feature- not allowing any cold air to plummet south and east- at least not much. So is El Nino causing THAT?

[Sanibel]

We are in an unusually warm mid-December. Warmest I've ever seen. Usually by this time it gets depressingly chilly down here. Lately we've had warm sun and warm nights. 80* over the mainland and 77* or so out here. I even went to the beach last weekend.

No rain however. Several Nino-type fronts have arrived on the southern jet but each one dries out over us. We've had several stretches of overcast days. Two days of rain only gave us 4/100's.

588 ridge has provided steady east winds (summer pattern). Newspaper says Arctic Oscillation responsible. Circumpolar wind pattern is keeping northern jet from descending.

[george_r_1961]

The effect on 2007 IMHO will be slim to none. Im not saying 2007 will be busy; im merely stating that if it is below normal it wont be because of El Nino.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This El Nino will be giving us a big rainfall from Friday-Monday(Christmas Day). It will be the fourth time in a row that it has rained on Christmas Day here in Sanford. I'm actually glad it has been abnormally warm here in Florida, I'm actually wearing short sleeves in December!

[Sanibel]

Squall front coming through from west. Looks like real rain this time.

[JonathanBelles]

its drizzling right now, but im hoping for a good rain.

[jaxfladude]

We are in an unusually warm mid-December. Warmest I've ever seen. Usually by this time it gets depressingly chilly down here. Lately we've had warm sun and warm nights. 80* over the mainland and 77* or so out here. I even went to the beach last weekend.

No rain however. Several Nino-type fronts have arrived on the southern jet but each one dries out over us. We've had several stretches of overcast days. Two days of rain only gave us 4/100's.

588 ridge has provided steady east winds (summer pattern). Newspaper says Arctic Oscillation responsible. Circumpolar wind pattern is keeping northern jet from descending.

HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING, AND NOT THE SUN IS AT FAULT!
Someone had to say it!

[wxmann_91]

Remember that El Nino is just an oscillation of the Equatorial Pacific SSTAs; it is not merely El Nino, but a slew of atmospheric responses to it, that leads to rain in a given place. The 588 ridge was not a result of El Nino. It was an independent entity. That goes to show that while El Nino is an important factor in global weather, it is not the only factor, and others are equally important in assessing long term trends.

[Sanibel]

Another heavy squall line that puttered out when it reached us with less than 1/10th of an inch.


Had to have air conditioner on today to reduce humidity. Almost too warm.

Alaska had record lows recently so the arctic air should be here for January. Unless the Nino zonal flow pattern is strong enough to dam it.

[Sanibel]

Finally got a good 1 1/4 from last front. Looks like real Nino appearing for Florida.

Quick return to 80's on weekend.

[Sanibel]

80's and warm here today. 80's expected all week.

[JonathanBelles]

yea it looks at this point to be a very warm "winter"

[Sanibel]

Clouds and showers moving in from Gulf today. Nino pattern for sure. (But warm instead of cool)

[dixiebreeze]

My rose bush is going crazy and the azaleas are budding. I still have blooms on my butterfly (cassia) bushes. Seems to be a lot of moisture all over the GOM, but it sure isn't moving quickly, just enough to keep it cloudy here.

[Sanibel]

Big rose blooms on our plant too.

84* today. Had to have air conditioner on in car due to heat.

Caribbean High is keeping us warm even when it is cloudy due to SST's. Winter plunging jet/trough not happened yet. Citrus blooms only 6 weeks away.

[johngaltfla]

The longer this El Nino lasts the worse the next season will be on us I fear. Look at the temps. Look at the lack of even close to freezing weather in Florida. Great for ag, tourism, Disney, etc. but if we have an early spring (which I fear we will) the water temps will probably start cranking up early in the Gulf of Mexico.

If we see 85 degree GOM waters by Mid-May, then God help us is all I have to say.

[Sanibel]

The Bermuda High is in a summer position and pumping humid tropical air in from the tropical Atlantic. Still, you can feel the cool winter ocean quality to the winds. It was almost muggy today in humidity, but down in the 70's in temperature. Doesn't feel right with the lack of annual dry air.

It should break soon and the cool air drain in from the north. Winter sees dry chilly air from the continent, but this year has had moist air from the SE from the Atlantic.