Major Boxing Day Snowstorm? Great Lakes

[conestogo_flood]

I haven't heard anything on this until this morning by Enrivonment Canada...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ONTARIO REGION.
6:21 AM EST SATURDAY 23 DECEMBER 2006.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA - HUNTSVILLE
HALIBURTON
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
ALGONQUIN
BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

..POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FOR BOXING DAY..

ALTHOUGH A GREEN CHRISTMAS IS IN THE OFFING FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INCLUDING SKI COUNTRY..MOTHER NATURE MAY BE DELIVERING A
LATE CHRISTMAS GIFT TO SNOW LOVERS.

A STRONG JET STREAM CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO
PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE GULF STATES ON CHRISTMAS EVE THEN CREATE
AN INTENSIFYING STORM APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ON BOXING DAY..IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR WILL BE TAPPED THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS STORM MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ONTARIO COMPLETE WITH THE USUAL SUITE OF HEAVY SNOW..STRONG WINDS
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM AND THE
CHANCES OF RECEIVING A WHITE BOXING DAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY
ALSO BE FOUND BY CONSULTING THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECAST. THE NEXT
PUBLIC FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM.

[wxmann_91]

Yep. Major phase of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream should create a strong closed low at 500mb. If it goes further west than what the 12Z GFS progged, an intensifying 980 low coupled with a 1020 high to the north would create a strong gradient, leading to near-blizzard conditions. Of course, this is only possible if the phasing occurs, which is still a question mark at this point.