SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

Yankeegirl · #381 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 24, 2006 1:54 pm

I am not cooking, but we are going over to the in laws later on..fun... But yes a great day for the fireplace... Though I havent lit it yet... the kids were sleepin so I wrapped their stuff so I dont have to do it tonight!! I am supposed to be going to midnight mass tonight and im not going to want to wrap crap after that!!!

JenBayles · #382 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:24 pm

Hey Yankee! Are you going to St. Elizabeth's or heading inside the Loop tonite? Maybe an in-town excusion will guarantee some slick stuff on the roads? :lol:

I considered going to BC Methodist for Christmas Eve services, but the way my guts are feeling now, doubt I'll make it. Oh well, there's always next year. I went to Midnight Mass once with a catholic friend of mine and still remember it as one of the most beautiful, meaningful services I've ever attended. Hope it's that way for you!

Yankeegirl · #383 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:33 pm

I think I am going to St. Elizabeths... I havent gone to church in years, and I think that is the closest one to me... They have midnight mass and caroling begining at 1130 tonight... I say im going to mass every year, and I never go... Well this year I am... I think i have put all my feelings about religion aside (my mother dying) and i am ready to start going again...

JenBayles · #384 Postby **JenBayles** » Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:57 pm

Well good for you! Here's hoping the service has some meaning for you and you get a spiritual boost from going.

Oddly enough, church architecture is important to me. So I end up in a Methodist church with clear glass windows that allow the sun to roast everyone in the pews with the heat and glare. :roll:

I assume you're bringing the kids et al tonite? Now THAT I don't envy you! Hopefully you and your youngest are having a good long nap this afternoon.

Right now, Dave and I enjoying the smell of the roasting turkey. Mmmmmm! :cheesy:

Johnny · #385 Postby **Johnny** » Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:22 pm

You can pick up the spin of the low quite nicely on radar right now. Pretty cool.

http://www.khou.com/images/weather/dop320_a.gif

#386 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:38 am

Looks like a nice, cold rainy day. Perfect for Christmas!! Too bad we missed any "snow".

Merry Christmas!

Ptarmigan · #387 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 12:24 pm

jschlitz wrote:Looks like a nice, cold rainy day. Perfect for Christmas!! Too bad we missed any "snow".

Merry Christmas!

Hopefully, it will clear out soon. Merry Christmas!

JenBayles · #388 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 2:56 pm

"Clear out" my rear end! This is GREAT Christmas weather! <and now back to my regularly scheduled wassail> :lol:

Yankeegirl · #389 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:48 pm

It is cold and windy!!! BBRRR!! It says 52 out here, but that wind goes right through ya!!

KatDaddy · #390 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:10 pm

49.4F on the Davis Wireless currently......cold!

Extremeweatherguy · #391 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:02 pm

Looks like Severe weather may be an issue by the end of the week...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

KatDaddy · #392 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:50 am

Severe weather looking more and more possible across SE TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Dont be surprised if we are under a moderate risk by tomorrow.

wxman22 · #393 Postby **wxman22** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:50 am

Maybe an upgrade to a moderate risk...?

wxman22 · #394 Postby **wxman22** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:35 am

Looks like theres a MAJOR change in the 12z GFS looks like more heavier rains...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

We havent seen to much severe weather this year but this may be the only and first chance of more significant severe wx of 2006. Right when the year is about to end...

(Seems the GFS is going on the bandwagon with other models)?

Extremeweatherguy · #395 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 12:27 pm

Day 2 severe update still looks like a decent shot of severe weather will be in store:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU DEC 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND EAST
TX...LA...SRN OK AND FAR SW AR...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY OPEN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SLOWLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY RISING
INTO THE 60S F ACROSS EAST TX AND MOST OF LA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL
SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL TX AND WRN OK EARLY IN THE DAY LIKELY
RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAWTON OK EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
TX HILL COUNTRY. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WITH A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY EVENING
FROM CNTRL OK EXTENDING SWD TO THE HOUSTON AREA.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASE.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL TX LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 50-60 KTS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR A
THERMAL AXIS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER
FURTHER EAST BUT STILL SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR
MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WELL EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS A SOLID LINE FORMS AND MOVES
EWD ACROSS EAST TX FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. AS A
RESULT...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS EAST TX AND POSSIBLY
ACROSS SW LA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN LA...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE SQUALL-LINE
REMAINS ORGANIZED.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 30_any.gif

#396 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:34 pm

Looks like a fun ride tomorrow

KatDaddy · #397 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:23 pm

Tomorrow night is going to a be rough for SE TX. Not looking forward to this event.

Extremeweatherguy · #398 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:40 pm

Here is the afternoon HGX AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR AREA AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND ERODING CAP. UNDER BREEZY WINDS...OUR
AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE STORM SYSTEM EDGING INTO WESTERN
TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE RISK WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE
TOO (VERY HIGH HELICITIES...HIGH MUCAPES AND LOW LI`S). LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISE SUBSTANTIALLY (>1.75 INCHES IF THE GFS IS CORRECT). HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT WILL PROBABLY END UP ALONG AND
EAST OF I-45 AND ON TOWARD THE TX-LA BORDER WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY
FALL. OVERALL...EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALL THIS MESS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING (AFTER SUNRISE) AND WE DRY OUT. DRY WEATHER WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT 2006 AND START 2007 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS USUAL
THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Yankeegirl · #399 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:27 pm

The winds outside right now are really strong!! THe kids are out playing and I feel like I am going to blow away!!

southerngale · #400 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:29 pm

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
438 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-291100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
438 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006

...STORM SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
AREAS WILL RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

FIRST SIGNS OF THE STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL BE INCREASING STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT.

THESE WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ON AREA LAKES AND BAYS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COUNTIES TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA...KNOWN AS TRAINING...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. THE PROSPECT OF SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE THE BULK
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MORNING.

VERY HIGH WINDS ARE FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS. SOME OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING THESE HIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST STATEMENTS ON
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

ALSO THE LATEST FORECASTS...WARNINGS AND RADAR PICTURES ARE
AVAILABLE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.

$$

BARRY/RUA

SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

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