Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

Extremeweatherguy · #321 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:16 am

Up in Houston county they are reporting unknown precip. (a.k.a. sleet) right now:

Houston County Airport
Last Update on Dec 25, 8:05 am CST

Unknown Precip

45°F
(7°C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: NW 9 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 30.00"
Dewpoint: 41°F (5°C)
Wind Chill: 40°F (4°C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi

#322 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:44 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Up in Houston county they are reporting unknown precip. (a.k.a. sleet) right now:

Houston County Airport
Last Update on Dec 25, 8:05 am CST

Unknown Precip

45°F
(7°C)
Humidity: 87 %
Wind Speed: NW 9 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 30.00"
Dewpoint: 41°F (5°C)
Wind Chill: 40°F (4°C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi

Highly unlikely. Probably light drizzle. ASOS has a hard time determining precip type when temps are 40's. HOwever...looking at the temp profile PROVES it can't be sleet...there is still no thaw-refreeze layer...

Also...if there was sleet up there...the radar would be pinging some serious echoes...because that is how sleet shows up. Right now...there is nothing even in that area but light rain...and drizzle.

The air temp is 7C...the freezing level is 4000' along with the WBZ...

Come on now...even Dallas hasn't seen anything but rain...not even Oklahoma.

Has "want to" cost you all sense of reason?

:lol:

#323 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:50 am

Hey AFM,

Yep, I have posted in the past about ASOS giving false readings. Fort Worth-Spinks is one that is notoriously bad...

#324 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:55 am

More proof it's not sleet:

On the radar there is nothing...but yet the visibility is now down to 4 miles...

First...I've rarely EVER seen visby limited to 4 miles in sleet...and second...I've never seen it limited to 4 miles in sleet when there is not anything on the radar. The echoes in that area are 10-15DBZ...

SLeet usually shows up in the 40's. I would expect sleet reducing vsby to 4 miles would be in the 50's.

KDKR 251425Z AUTO 31007KT 4SM UP SCT001 BKN013 07/06

The other "clue" is that there is a SCT001 layer...

It's low stratus and drizzle EWG... :lol:

Rules for sleet and snow cannot be violated...it can't occur just because we want it too...in violation of the physics. Now go enjoy Christmas and give up on it...it won't happen. If it isn't happening in Dallas or Oklahoma...it isn't happening in Houston. :lol:

#325 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:57 am

Part of the problem here in the Houston area is ALL of our OCM's telling us there is the possibility of a flurry or two so we now have 5M people hoping/wishing for snow.

I actually heard one this am saying we were VERY close to having the right conditions for flurries. Just how close are we AFM, if at all??? From what I have seen you post so far, it doesn't appear to me they know what they are talking about. Do they not look at the layers also?

#326 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:00 am

jschlitz wrote:Hey AFM,

Yep, I have posted in the past about ASOS giving false readings. Fort Worth-Spinks is one that is notoriously bad...

It would be one thing if the atmosphere was set up for possible sleet...like a low WBZ and a warm layer aloft to melt the snow at about 5000'...then a cold layer at 4K to refreeze it...but it's not.

This is no different than the tropical forum when people let their wishes overcome their reason. In this case...it is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. It CANNOT happen. You CANNOT produce sleet when you first CANNOT melt the snow and the REFREEZE it.

Please...someone help explain to me how it is even possible. :lol:

I think he's toying with me... :lol:

Making me crazy on Christmas....

And yes...ASOS can be bad. When there isn't a person there to check it...don't trust it...I throw obs out when I work a lot that are ASOS...because you can't always trust them...and when they violate what the science is saying...BYE BYE...

And in this case...it's just UNKNOWN...

Extremeweatherguy · #327 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:04 am

AFM I did also see a few people reporting some sleet in their area on another forum, but I guess they must have been lying.

Oh well..

Merry Christmas everyone!

Aquawind · #328 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:05 am

Also...if there was sleet up there...the radar would be pinging some serious echoes...because that is how sleet shows up. Right now...there is nothing even in that area but light rain...and drizzle.

Serious echos is right.. :wink:

Sleet is usually very obvious on radar from my ole days in the northland.

#329 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:09 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:AFM I did also see a few people reporting some sleet in their area on another forum, but I guess they must have been lying.

Oh well..

Merry Christmas everyone!

I think the word you are looking for here is wishing or hoping. Unless these people were trained spotters or at least skilled amatuers, they may not even know what they were seeing. The profiles just aren't there for sleet.

Merry Christmas!!!

#330 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:11 am

vbhoutex wrote:Part of the problem here in the Houston area is ALL of our OCM's telling us there is the possibility of a flurry or two so we now have 5M people hoping/wishing for snow.

I actually heard one this am saying we were VERY close to having the right conditions for flurries. Just how close are we AFM, if at all??? From what I have seen you post so far, it doesn't appear to me they know what they are talking about. Do they not look at the layers also?

First the OCMs...their forecasts...by and large...are being based on the NWS forecast which...in my opinion...was a very BAD forecast. It should have never been given...and I think in all the bad forecasts you can give...this was one of the worst I have seen.

Here is why I think they even KNEW it was a bad forecast: In their discussion, they said: "PRECIP SHOULD FORM
AS SNOW AND PROBABLY MELT ON IT`S DESCENT. "

Looking at all the data...that was a no brainer. DUH! The freezing level for snow has to be below 1500' or so and we are looking at 4K feet. It's bad forecasting. The OCM's are just following suit as most of them aren't very good forecasters anyway...their good TV personalities with enough weather lingo to make them dangerous.

As far has how close are we? We were within 10degrees at the sfc and about 2K feet of freezing level. That's pretty close for us....but it wasn't ever close enough that I thought we'd get something. I wouldn't have put snow in the forecast south of DFW...and there I would have went with a mix or rain/snow. I would have never mentioned sleet because the profile is all wrong...and just a cursory look at the temp profile shows that.

I'm really not sure what they were thinking. I know Bill Read...and may give him a call next week if he's in...to ask him a question or two.

#331 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:14 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:AFM I did also see a few people reporting some sleet in their area on another forum, but I guess they must have been lying.

Oh well..

Merry Christmas everyone!

PM me the forum link...I want to see where they were...because there is no way sleet is falling from anywhere near us...

And...science is science. You can't get 4 miles in sleet with little echoes on a radar. I've been a met for 20 years now...it doesn't happen.

Merry Christmas. For my present...send me a link. :wink:

#332 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:15 am

Aquawind wrote:
Also...if there was sleet up there...the radar would be pinging some serious echoes...because that is how sleet shows up. Right now...there is nothing even in that area but light rain...and drizzle.

Serious echos is right.. Sleet is usually very obvious on radar from my ole days in the northland.

You better believ it. Does everyone remember the echo pings from just a couple of weeks ago? It looked like thunderstorms over VCT-OSX as that sleet moved through.

#333 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:21 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:AFM I did also see a few people reporting some sleet in their area on another forum, but I guess they must have been lying.

Oh well..

Merry Christmas everyone!

Oh...and yeah...nobody lies on the internet...especially on weather forums... :lol:

KatDaddy · #334 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:31 am

Just light sprinkles here in League City. No sleet no flurries. Maybe another time.

JenBayles · #335 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:37 am

Who cares if it's frozen precip or not? Fact is, we're finally having a seasonal Christmas without sweltering in a tropical soup necessitating shorts and T-shirts. Is this weather not perfect for a hot drink (adult beverage or not?) and a fire in the fireplace? The only complaint I can log is with the NWS for it's blown forcast that got 5 million people all excited over nothing, and the OCMs who broadcast it. :lol:

#336 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:41 am

JenBayles wrote:Who cares if it's frozen precip or not? Fact is, we're finally having a seasonal Christmas without sweltering in a tropical soup necessitating shorts and T-shirts. Is this weather not perfect for a hot drink (adult beverage or not?) and a fire in the fireplace? The only complaint I can log is with the NWS for it's blown forcast that got 5 million people all excited over nothing, and the OCMs who broadcast it.

That's my only real complaint too. When I watched the news yesterday afternoon...I looked to my wife and said: "Why are they doing this to all these people?" :wink:

But you're right...it is nice to have some NICE COOL weather at Christmas. We could just as easily be running the AC and going to the family dinner this afternoon in shorts. :lol:

JenBayles · #337 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:49 am

ROFL! Let's not use the "A/C" word and jinx it! We've had far to many holidays doing just that. Bleeeeccccchhhh!!! Currently experiencing a light cold rain under the Dome. If the BC Dome had to fail, it picked the right day for it! :cheesy:

aggiecutter · #338 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:10 am

We're having white-out conditions in Texarkana. It's snowing so hard you can't see it.

#339 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:19 am

KatDaddy wrote:Just light sprinkles here in League City. No sleet no flurries. Maybe another time.

Yep...certainly another time. Just did some quick checking before we head out to the Christmas lunch on an hour or so...and the freezing levels are still really high.

DFW is still at 3K feet. SHV is at 4K feet. LCH is at 4500', CRP is at 7400'.
The 13Z satellite sounding is 4300'...just as the models were forecasting. Up near Waco they are near 1900'...1700' up near Abilene.

Lufkin...close to the unknown precip...the freezing level is 3300' with a WBZ of 3200'. The profile is saturated up to 850...and the 850mb temp is only -1C. There are no inversions anywhere.

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/soundings/skewt/html/lfk.html

Over Houston..the 850MB temp is 00C...it's 2C at 920mb and 4C at 950MB...
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... l/iah.html

So...this airmass just isn't cold enough. It tapped too much from the Pacific NW and not enough Canadian air.

Now...next weekend looks really interesting for the plains. That should be a great storm.

Website · #340 Postby **Brent** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:24 am

aggiecutter wrote:We're having white-out conditions in Texarkana. It's snowing so hard you can't see it.

Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

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