War in the Horn of Africa

[kevin]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6208549.stm

Ethiopia and Eritrea are waging a proxy-war in Somalia. Individuals throughout the region, and especially wealthy Gulf-State businessmen are giving money and arms to the militant UIC.

This war is very dangerous and could involve more than the three current participants. There is also the troubling fact that to the west of Ethiopia, the rogue Sudanese state is busy destabilizing its region and supporting civil war in Chad.

Its very possible the Middle East is imploding, with three civil wars occurring (the third cannot be mentioned in this fora) and a common thread of militant Islam running through them. We live in dangerous times.

Lets hope for peace in the region, and if peace is untenable than the shortest war with the best victory.

[coriolis]

There will be all the wars we can stand all year long. Let's just enjoy Christmas today.

[JenBayles]

What you said!

[JQ Public]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6208549.stm

Ethiopia and Eritrea are waging a proxy-war in Somalia. Individuals throughout the region, and especially wealthy Gulf-State businessmen are giving money and arms to the militant UIC.

This war is very dangerous and could involve more than the three current participants. There is also the troubling fact that to the west of Ethiopia, the rogue Sudanese state is busy destabilizing its region and supporting civil war in Chad.

Its very possible the Middle East is imploding, with three civil wars occurring (the third cannot be mentioned in this fora) and a common thread of militant Islam running through them. We live in dangerous times.

Lets hope for peace in the region, and if peace is untenable than the shortest war with the best victory.

Not good We can only hope for the best. "We" really can't do much more, but by just knowing what's going on does help.

[kevin]

Sorry to intervene on your very merry christmas time.

To quote someone on another board though :

Just think: It rarely snows in Africa. In fact, you might say the greatest gift they'll get this year is life. Their soil is barren, they don't even have water to drink. Do they know it's Christmas time at all?

Matt

I don't think I was being selfish by posting what I did. I posted it because I do care about peace on earth and goodwill to all men.

[coriolis]

True, it is appropriate to remember all those who do not share in our peace and prosperity. Yes, peace on earth and goodwill to all men.

[Yarrah]

It seems the Islamic militias are on the losing side. They're losing a lot of terrain to the Ethiopian troops and have lost about a 1000 men already.

It is expected that the capital Mogadishu will be occupied by Ethiopian troops in less then 48 hours.

[kevin]

It seems the Islamic militias are on the losing side. They're losing a lot of terrain to the Ethiopian troops and have lost about a 1000 men already.

It is expected that the capital Mogadishu will be occupied by Ethiopian troops in less then 48 hours.

I wouldn't be so sure. The Ethiopians have their supply lines going through the hard eastern part of their country, and Mogadishu has proven itself a tough nut to crack. There is something of a chance the Islamists will be able to fight better with less territory to defend.

With the AU giving their approval to the Ethiopian right to "self defense", it seems inevitable that the UIC will eventually be defeated. Western support is also solidly behind the 'legal' government. There are still several thousand Eritreans in Somalia though, and one has to worry they will miscalculate and decide to engage the Ethiopians on two fronts.

[Yarrah]

Indeed, I hope Ethiopia has its borders with Eritrea well-defended. There are already reports of Eritrean troops moving towards the border with Ethiopia and I wouldn't be surprised if they actually attacked.

There are also some reports of Sudanese militias on the western borders of Ethiopia.

[kevin]

If the Sudanese attack Ethiopia from the west, I believe the US would have to respond along with NATO. We cannot allow governments that are increasingly Islamist dominate an area, we've seen where that leads in Afghanistan and Darfur.

[JQ Public]

I doubt we'll do anything significant. We'll use the "We trust the troops of Ethiopia".

[kevin]

It seems the Islamic militias are on the losing side. They're losing a lot of terrain to the Ethiopian troops and have lost about a 1000 men already.

It is expected that the capital Mogadishu will be occupied by Ethiopian troops in less then 48 hours.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6214379.stm

Government troops in Somalia have entered areas of Mogadishu, hours after Islamist forces abandoned the capital city, Somalia's prime minister says.

Kudos on the correct prediction Yarrah.

Now the question is whether the Somali forces will be able to assert themselves over the clans, or whether Mogadishu will descend back into chaos.

[GalvestonDuck]

Sorry to intervene on your very merry christmas time.

To quote someone on another board though :

Just think: It rarely snows in Africa. In fact, you might say the greatest gift they'll get this year is life. Their soil is barren, they don't even have water to drink. Do they know it's Christmas time at all?

Matt

I don't think I was being selfish by posting what I did. I posted it because I do care about peace on earth and goodwill to all men.

Not sure which Matt that was, but he kinda stole that from Bob Geldof and Midge Ure.

[Yarrah]

Kudos on the correct prediction Yarrah.

Now the question is whether the Somali forces will be able to assert themselves over the clans, or whether Mogadishu will descend back into chaos.

Heh, thanks. I kinda expected this, since a bunch of warlords who even fight their own kind, wouldn't really stand a chance against a trained and organized army.

But there's another problem. Even though the rebels have left the city, the troops of the Somali government haven't taken over the entire city. There's a lot of plundering and shooting going on right now in the centre of Mogadishu where anarchy is doing its worst and a lot of people have been killed.

Anyway, it's good to see people celebrating the fact that they've been liberated from rebels who wanted everyone to follow the rules of the Sharia.