Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

aggiecutter · #341 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:48 am

AFM, you're right about next weekend. All the models have jumped on a major event for the plains for next weekend. It looks like there will be more cold air available for this storm than the last, not to mention the dynamics in the atmosphere. It'll be interesting to see where the players finally end up on the field. Nevertheless, this looks like a major winter storm for someone in the plains.

Ptarmigan · #342 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 12:10 pm

aggiecutter wrote:We're having white-out conditions in Texarkana. It's snowing so hard you can't see it.

Lucky you. :lol:

Johnny · #343 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:01 pm

Whereabouts in the plains? I might have to make a road trip!

#344 Postby **jeff** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:32 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Part of the problem here in the Houston area is ALL of our OCM's telling us there is the possibility of a flurry or two so we now have 5M people hoping/wishing for snow.

I actually heard one this am saying we were VERY close to having the right conditions for flurries. Just how close are we AFM, if at all??? From what I have seen you post so far, it doesn't appear to me they know what they are talking about. Do they not look at the layers also?

First the OCMs...their forecasts...by and large...are being based on the NWS forecast which...in my opinion...was a very BAD forecast. It should have never been given...and I think in all the bad forecasts you can give...this was one of the worst I have seen.

Here is why I think they even KNEW it was a bad forecast: In their discussion, they said: "PRECIP SHOULD FORM
AS SNOW AND PROBABLY MELT ON IT`S DESCENT. "

Looking at all the data...that was a no brainer. DUH! The freezing level for snow has to be below 1500' or so and we are looking at 4K feet. It's bad forecasting. The OCM's are just following suit as most of them aren't very good forecasters anyway...their good TV personalities with enough weather lingo to make them dangerous.

As far has how close are we? We were within 10degrees at the sfc and about 2K feet of freezing level. That's pretty close for us....but it wasn't ever close enough that I thought we'd get something. I wouldn't have put snow in the forecast south of DFW...and there I would have went with a mix or rain/snow. I would have never mentioned sleet because the profile is all wrong...and just a cursory look at the temp profile shows that.

I'm really not sure what they were thinking. I know Bill Read...and may give him a call next week if he's in...to ask him a question or two.

I am sure Bill and Gene are off this weekend/holiday with the skelton crew in. I questioned Bill one time about an FFA not being issued and he was dissapointed in one of his staff for not hoisting it and instead allowed the evening shift to do it, which is unusual for them. I believe a small raise went to the forecaster who finally pulled the trigger on the watch. As with any profession not eveyone is the best and not everyone is their best all the time!

JenBayles · #345 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Dec 25, 2006 4:01 pm

Bill's a sweetheart - I've emailed him a few times and he's always been very polite and informative, even with this amateur idiot. By the way - glad to see you chime in today Jeff, and Merry Christmas!

JenBayles · #346 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 4:03 pm

Hey! Where is everybody? Still passed out from weather-watching Christmas Even and early Christmas morning? :lol:

Currently my least favorite weather under the Bear Creek Dome today: cold and sunny. YUK! Guess I'll pull the shades and wait for sundown...

WhiteShirt · #347 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 4:10 pm

Are we in for some really cold weather in SE Texas soon?

#348 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:50 pm

Just got in from Dallas and boy is my face chapped! I got down to 32F here this AM - John Cooper School hit 30F - chillier than I thought it would be.

Extremeweatherguy · #349 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Dec 26, 2006 11:38 pm

Looks like another (and more widespread) freeze is in store for tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
837 PM CST TUE DEC 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN VERY QUICKLY THIS EVE. IT IS ALREADY 39 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INLAND COASTAL AREAS...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
AT CXO AND DKR. WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN
PLACE...EXPECT FURTHER COOLING TO OCCUR. SO...THINK THE GUIDANCE
AND THE CURRENT FCST MINS ARE TOO HIGH. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD
3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EVE UPDATE. SHOULD SEE
TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXPECT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND METRO HOUSTON.

Johnny · #350 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 1:13 pm

I got up at 5:30 this morning. Not that I wanted to...it's just that my little canine creature wouldn't keep his mouth shut!! lol I glanced over at my thermometer and it was 28 degrees outside! Wow, that was a surprise!!

I guess everyone is a little burned out on that last winter weather event that never came to pass. Come on now, let's keep it going. When is the next big cool down coming down? What are the extended models showing EWG?

JenBayles · #351 Postby **JenBayles** » Wed Dec 27, 2006 10:19 pm

Man oh man oh man is this weather BORING! ZZZZZZZZzzzzz.....

#352 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:20 am

JenBayles wrote:Man oh man oh man is this weather BORING! ZZZZZZZZzzzzz.....

Yes, it is boring Jen ... but the rain is nice, as you have noted for us in the Hill Country and close-by areas (i.e. Austin).

We will see seasonal to slightly below seasonal temps in between storm systems during this busy El Nino pattern. Folks like JB, Don Sutherland, and a few others, along with the GFS, show a pattern changing around the middle of January. If it all verifies, we should see colder temps. Perhaps MUCH colder than what we are seeing now.

aggiecutter · #353 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:22 am

Who is this JB that you speak of?

#354 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:24 am

aggiecutter wrote:Who is this JB that you speak of?

LOL!

He who resides on Mt. Bastardi, of course. Nearly every day I trek up the mountainside and sit by his side, awaiting morsels of knowledge and weather wisdom.

Some days I leave full ... others, I feel like I'm starved. :lol:

#355 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:40 am

Severe Storms tonight and Friday for NTX...then seasonal or below temps for the New Years holiday.

SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW END. HAIL IS EASIER
TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER ELEVATED
CELLS. DEEP CONVECTION AND SVR WINDS WILL BE BEST SUITED TO SFC-
BASED SQUALL LINE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EJECT...AND SOME CLOUDINESS NORTH MAY
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL HELP
KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN TRACK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

#356 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:45 am

Good old TX Panhandle and it's winter storms...YEA for them!!! :cry:

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

.STRONG UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT
EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...HELPING
TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES. LOWLEVEL JET TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
COMBINATION OF WETBULB EFFECT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ON FRIDAY...WILL EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR A GREATER PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO COOL. IN ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH...RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

#357 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:05 am

Lubbock had its all-time season (41 inches) and 1-day snowfall (16 inches) due to an El Nino winter back in 1982-83. They can get some real snow up there.

double D · #358 Postby **double D** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:54 am

Portastorm wrote:
JenBayles wrote:Man oh man oh man is this weather BORING! ZZZZZZZZzzzzz.....

Yes, it is boring Jen ... but the rain is nice, as you have noted for us in the Hill Country and close-by areas (i.e. Austin).

We will see seasonal to slightly below seasonal temps in between storm systems during this busy El Nino pattern. Folks like JB, Don Sutherland, and a few others, along with the GFS, show a pattern changing around the middle of January. If it all verifies, we should see colder temps. Perhaps MUCH colder than what we are seeing now.

Now if we can get the 06Z 300hr run to verify we will be back in business! :lol:

FWIW, the gfs (although inconsistent) has been showing some much colder air coming down around the 10th of January. In the meantime enjoy the nice mild weather while it last.

Furious George · #359 Postby **Furious George** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 1:48 pm

Looks like there will be no major arctic outbreaks for SE Texas through at least mid Jan, at least according to the GFS and a combination of short and long terms forecasts from the NWS. But who knows, maybe this cold air in Alaska wouldn't mind stopping by after that.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

TexasStooge · #360 Postby **TexasStooge** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:45 pm

The Texas Panhandle is getting some wintry precip today and Saturday as we speak. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect through Saturday evening for the northern Panhandle region while a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the rest of the Panhandle cities through Saturday afternoon.

NWS-Amarillo wrote:A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR
TODAY TO PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN AND THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO INTO TEXAS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM BEAVER OKLAHOMA TO CLAUDE TEXAS...AND
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE CAPROCK TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOW PRODUCING
BLOWING SNOW AND CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER OFF
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE.

It's not gonna be as messy as it still is in Denver, CO; but to those who are making road trips in the Texas Panhandle, be extra careful.

LUBBOCK
Today:

44°F
Tonight:

28°F
Saturday:

33°F
Saturday Night:

22°F

AMARILLO
Today:

44°F
Tonight:

28°F
Saturday:

33°F
Saturday Night:

19°F

Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

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