SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Extremeweatherguy]

tornado warnings now out for the counties just NW of the Houston area. Here are the warned counties:

BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

[DJJordan]

Looks like the intensity and coverage of these storms are increasing as the afternoon progresses.

[jasons2k]

[wxman22]

Just on CNN a Tornado warning for Crawford county the president and first lady seek shelter in armored vehicle.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

the winds have been getting worse and worse by the hour! I can hear gusts constantly slamming into the windows right now and the pine trees are moving in and out of a full bend. Feels like a tropical storm for sure.

I am still surprised about no wind advisory though (since sustained winds over 30mph have been reported at area airports).

[Tamora]

I went to CNN.com and I can't find the story on Bush and the tornado? Would an armored vehicle be the best choice??? Doesn't seem that safe to me...

[HurricaneBill]

Just on CNN a Tornado warning for Crawford county the president and first lady seek shelter in armored vehicle.....

Armored or not, vehicles are a dangerous place to seek shelter from a tornado!

[Stratosphere747]

Just on CNN a Tornado warning for Crawford county the president and first lady seek shelter in armored vehicle.....

Did you see that on the ticker?

No way in hell that they put the POTUS and First Lady in a armored vehicle during a tornado.

No question the ranch has a bunker underneath the house, or somehere on the property.

[Tamora]

I found it on local news. They were put in the vehicle, then moved to a tornado shelter until the weather passed. Makes more sense that way.

[Brent]

CRAWFORD, Texas - President Bush and first lady Laura Bush were moved to an armored vehicle on their ranch Friday during a tornado weather alert.

The vehicle was driven to a tornado shelter on the ranch, and the president, his wife and their two dogs sat inside until the weather cleared, deputy White House press secretary Scott Stanzel said. They were never moved into the shelter, he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16396938/

[Stratosphere747]

I'm speechless....

Our MO for the President during a Tornado warning is this....

[Furious George]

!!!!!!!

It's been allmost 2YEARS sence southeast texas has been in a moderate risk.............

Wow, the NWS did a good job forecasting this event. In fact, I'd argue that tornado forecasting has improved better than just about anything else over the past 10 years. Now, if only the same thing could be said about forecasting TX winter weather events more than 3 days in advance...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recent wind gusts have just knocked over a large 50-75lb. pot filled with a large plant (probably 70-90 lbs. total). I have only seen this pot go over 1-2 other times in the last 2 years (since it is somewhat protected). Goes to show how impressive these non-thunderstorm winds really are. I would estimate I am getting regular gusts in the 35-50mph range this afternoon with a few probably topping 50mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From IAH:

SE 29 G 40 MPH

(4pm)

[wxman22]

FLOOD WATCHTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE
UNSTABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
TRAIN...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 TO
5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OR WHERE
TRAINING DEVELOPS.

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING
IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE SOUTHEAST TEXAS LOCATIONS. IF ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED...BAYOU AND SMALL CREEK RISES COULD
BECOME AN ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEM.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA...CHECK PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENT.

$$

[southerngale]

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...PROLONGED
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING ROADWAYS. RAIN
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY.

TXZ180>182-201-215-216-300600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0003.061230T0600Z-061230T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...
LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
353 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES.

* INTENSE RAINFALL RATES IN HEAVIER STORMS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO NEAR ZERO...CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
ALSO...PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOOD WATERS
APPROACH THEIR HOMES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[Extremeweatherguy]

2 hail reports and 1 wind report now also on the SPC website as well as now THIRTEEN tornado reports.

[KatDaddy]

A very rough night ahead. This will be a long night for many. The moisture surge is amazing. Seems like a tropical storm is coming ashore.

[TexasSam]

I went outside and took down the big wooden Christmas decorations down, I didn't them to blow away. I also put away the plastic lawn chairs.

[Stratosphere747]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX...SRN OK.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886...887...

VALID 292124Z - 292330Z

SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- SOME TORNADIC -- ARE EVIDENT WITHIN BROAD
PLUME OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION COVERING AREA BETWEEN
HOU...DAL...MWL AND SAT. REPORT OF 1/4-MILE WIDE TORNADO WAS
RECEIVED FROM BOSQUE COUNTY SUPERCELL AT 2104Z. POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THAT PORTION OF WW 886 E OF COLD FRONT...AND MAY INCREASE
FROM S-N OVER WW 887.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX TOWARD SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX...THEN SEWD
TO BETWEEN HOU-LFK. STRONG ELY FLOW COMPONENT WILL BE MAINTAINED N
OF THIS FRONT...GIVEN ISALLOBARIC FORCING EXPECTED WITH SLOW APCH OF
UPPER VORTEX NOW OVER SRN NM. COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OCCLUSION
POINT BETWEEN ABI/MWL...SWD ACROSS HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR UVA.
ELONGATED MESOLOW IS EVIDENT ALONG COLD FRONT...N SAT AND W-SW
AUS...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE
COUPLET. COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD 10-15 KT...WITH
BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINED IN WARM SECTOR E-NE OF
MESOLOW...AS WELL AS ALONG WARM FRONT. TSTMS BUILDING NEAR AND S OF
I-10 -- AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL APCHG BASTROP
COUNTY AS OF 21Z -- WILL MOVE INTO THIS KINEMATIC REGIME WITH 0-1 KM
SRH UP TO ABOUT 600 J/KG...BASED ON VWP/PROFILER DATA AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS. WARM SECTOR MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER S-CENTRAL
TX GRADUALLY DIMINISH NWD TOWARD WARM FRONT...THEN TO LESS THAN 500
J/KG N OF WARM FRONT. SHALLOW STABLE LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE
NWD TOWARD RED RIVER REGION...LOWERING EFFECTIVE PARCEL BASE TO OR
JUST ABOVE SFC AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
TORNADOES.

..EDWARDS.. 12/29/2006