"Isobel" never existed, says BoM

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WDT on Friday the 29th of December 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Tropical Low south of Java near 10S 113E, well north of the continent.
Central Pressure : 1006hPa

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday: low
Sunday: low
Monday: Mod

REMARKS - There has been increasing thunderstorm activity over and to the south
of Indonesia and there are indications the weak tropical low as above could
develop in this area. Most likely movement of the low is towards the south
southeast. There is the possibility that the low [or cyclone] could be near the
Pilbara coast by Wednesday.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of ****
tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. ****
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[P.K.]

ECMWF and UKMO global models have been picking up on this for a couple of days and developing a significant landfalling TC.

[Ptarmigan]

The SST in that area is very warm.

[AussieMark]

SSTS in the area are around 30C

SSTS

anomalities are 2.0-2.5C above normal in the area also

Anomalities

shear strengthens to 20kts+ when it gets down to 18S or so

Shear

[Coredesat]

Invest ahoy:



Looks like sheared and disorganized convection, though.

EDIT: JTWC Dvorak fix -

911
TPXS10 PGTW 292103
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF JAVA
B. 29/2030Z
C. 9.6S/5
D. 107.5E/3
E. FIVE/MET5
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (29/0830Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC

70/PBO ANMTN.
LUCENTE

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WDT on Saturday the 30th of December 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are currently no significant tropical lows evident in the region. However
in recent days there has been thunderstorm activity along a trough near latitude
10S and a significant low is likely to develop over the next few days between
longitudes 110E and 115E. It is possible that the low will subsequently develop
into a tropical cyclone and move southwards towards mainland Western Australia.
A tropical cyclone impact is possible as early as Wednesday.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Sunday : LOW
Monday : MODERATE
Tuesday: HIGH


** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Aquawind]

Tuesday: HIGH

Hopefully that shear Mark mentions keeps it weak..

[Coredesat]

It's gone from NRL.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:12pm WDT on Sunday the 31st of December 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Tropical Low south of Bali
Location :near 12S 114E
about 1050 kilometres [570 nautical miles]
north northwest of Port Hedland
Central Pressure :1004hPa
Recent movement :almost stationary

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Monday : HIGH
Tuesday : HIGH
Wednesday: HIGH

Remarks: If the low develops into a tropical cyclone it is likely to move south
southeast towards the coast of mainland Western Australia. It is not likely to
produce gales in coastal areas on Monday or Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Advices
will be issued when there is a threat of gales in coastal areas within 48 hours.


** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

The first of 2007??? Let see between this one and the SW Indian Ocean one!!!

[Coredesat]

Never mind, it's not gone - NRL simply renumbered it to 95S. Looks pretty good!

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0704UTC 31 DECEMBER 2006

Gale Warning FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC tropical low located within 45 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal zero degrees South [12.0S]
Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal zero degrees East [ 114.0E]
Recent movement : almost stationary.
Maximum winds : 25 knots.
Central pressure : 1004 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.


At 1800UTC 31 December: Within 70 nautical miles of 12.6 South 114.7 East
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 01 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 13.7 South 114.9 East
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 31 December 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC tropical low located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal zero south [12.0S]
longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero east [115.0E]
Recent movement : almost stationary
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0000 UTC 01 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 12.4 south 114.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 01 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 13.4 south 115.4 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.


Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 31 December 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

It has deepened 2 mb!!!

[Alacane2]

Cyclone Advices have been initiated:



IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.


PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Monday, 1 January 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Mardie to Broome.

At 9:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
1060 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
almost stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next twenty four hours and
begin to track towards the Western Australian coastline. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas during Monday or Tuesday but may develop on Wednesday.

Details of the Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 11.2 south longitude 115.7 east
Recent movement : almost stationary
Central Pressure : 1002 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 85 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Below tropical cyclone intensity

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Broome and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.

The next warning will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Monday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0652UTC 1 JANUARY 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC tropical low located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal five south [11.5S]
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero east [116.0E]
Recent movement : almost stationary
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1800 UTC 01 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 12.4 south 116.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 02 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 13.7 south 116.4 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.


Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 01 January 2007.


WEATHER PERTH

Deepens to 1000 mb and winds increase to 30 knots. Most likely the first storm of 2007!!!

[P.K.]

Now down to 998hPa. The first name on Perth's list is Isobel.

[Sanibel]

WPAC seems to be hot this year.

[HURAKAN]

WPAC seems to be hot this year.

Well, this is located in the Southeast Indian Ocean, not the WPAC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0049UTC 2 JANUARY 2007

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC tropical low was located within 50 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal zero east [119.0E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 120 nautical miles in
eastern quadrants by 0000 UTC 3 January.


FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours causing clockwise
winds 30/45 knots, with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds
within 45 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 45/60 knots by 0000 UTC 03
January 2007.

At 1200 UTC 02 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.2 south 118.9 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 03 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 18.4 south 119.6 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.


Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 02 January 2007.


WEATHER PERTH


Continues to deepen. Isobel should be here very shortly!!!

[HURAKAN]

TCFA Issued!!!

[JonathanBelles]

looks good but its going the wrong way