El Nino crankin' up?

[azsnowman]

Now....check out the pattern set up, is it, could it be, the infamous EL NINO? The word on the street in Mexico City that the mexicans are buying TONS of toys for baby BOYS

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 312147 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 240 PM MST SUN DEC 31 2006

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA...AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COLDER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN AZ AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR RENO NV. THERE IS A SFC COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BOISE TO RENO INTO CENTRAL CALIF. PRGS CONTINUE TO BRING THE SFC COLD FRONT INTO NWRN AZ AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE H5 LOW CENTER MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM LAS VEGAS AT 12 MONDAY TO THE PHX AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE MODEL PROGS AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER DRY AND OUR CHANCES OF PRECIP WERE LOWERED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...THE LOW CENTER IS SHOWN TO BE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. THE LATEST PROGS SHOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SUGGESTS MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND COME INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE DID PAINT THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AZ/NM BORDER AREAS AND DECREASE THEM RAPIDLY AS ONE MOVES WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. PROGS HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON BREEZES SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM.

ON FRIDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AZ. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THIS ONE TO BE MUCH WINDIER AND HAVING DEEPER MOISTURE THAN MONDAYS "EVENT". HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DOWN SHARPLY.

[JonathanBelles]

i thought the el nino was suposed to die down in a few weeks.

[JBG]

i thought the el nino was suposed to die down in a few weeks.

Even if it did, the patterns often persist. In 1973 La Nina had already taken hold, yet the summer was virtually free of hurricanes, apparently a legacy of the departed El Nino. The following December, NYC and the East Coast had one last "El Nino" type storm.

Apparently, "atmospheric memory" plays a role even when the ensuing La Nina is strong, as it was in 1973-4.

[azsnowman]

i thought the el nino was suposed to die down in a few weeks.

This pretty much sums it up!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/past/ElNino ... hp?wfo=fgz

[R-Dub]

Here in the Northwest, we have seen it all....exept for El Nino conditions which typically brings us drier, warmer, quiet winters. In early November we had some of the worst river flooding ever recorded during the Pineapple Express. Then a major arctic outbreak which brought my area 14" of snow and low temps down into the single digits at the end of November. Then in the middle part of December came the biggest windstorm to pound the Northwest since the Columbus day windstorm of 1962. Over a million people were without power for days, hundred of thousands didn't have it for almost 2 weeks. The damage was horrific! And the latest forecast in my area calls for more flooding starting tomorrow. Also PNA looks to tank, and with many models now hedging towards a major arctic outbreak starting in about 8 days, the wild ride looks to continue for the forseeable future. Also for the most part, our temps have averaged quite a bit below normal for the entire fall/winter season so far. Something is way different with this Nino, what i have no idea.

[Stephanie]

R-Dub - I wonder if it's because of the AO being stratospherically high so far this season. See donsutherland's thread on it.