SE TX/SW LA weather thread #5 - rainy weather

[southerngale]

It's still coming down! In buckets! Choo-Choo. It won't stop training.

I believe I just heard the loudest thunder I've ever heard. Just as I was blinded by the lightning, instant KABOOM. Shook the house & probably the earth. lol
I'm still trembling and I'm not the least bit scared of thunder or lightning.

[southerngale]

Deja-vu...

Pine Island Bayou is what causes it to flood so bad near my house. It's not expected to rise as much as last time though. Let's hope we don't get any more rain for about a week though, so it will have time to go down. Funny how fast it rises, but it takes forever to crest and then get back down to normal.

Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
328 AM CST SAT DEC 30 2006

RIVER FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE VILLAGE CREEK, AT KOUNTZE
RIVER FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU, AT SOUR LAKE

TXC199-245-302328-
328 AM CST SAT DEC 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE
* FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* AT 03AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...23.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.8 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR ATTEMPT TO CROSS ROADWAYS COVERED
BY HIGH WATER. YOU MAY CHECK THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION, http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH.


$$

[JenBayles]

Just checking in after a non-event weather wise under the BC Dome last night. 'Gale - you still have dry feet this morning I hope?

[CajunMama]

We got hit with the rain between 7 & 8 this morning. Received 2.3" in an hour. My street is still flooded. Now i have to wait for the Vermilion river to go down. Flood stage for the river just south of me at the Broussard Bridge is 7' and the river is currently at 10.57'

[JenBayles]

Yikes! Any idea when that river will crest?

[Extremeweatherguy]

All in all, yesterday there were:

22 tornado reports
4 wind reports
6 hail reports

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.gif

[JonathanBelles]

wow, i was gone all day yesturday. hope the river goes down cajun mama.

[southerngale]

Frick, I saw that line headed for you before I went to sleep. I knew you were going to get a lot of rain. I know y'all need it over there, but maybe not that much, that fast. When it rains, it pours.

The first warning for Pine Island Bayou said minor flooding was forecast...now it's been changed to moderate flooding. It's pretty high over here and isn't supposed to crest until Monday. I hope none of the same houses that flooded a few months ago in our really bad flood, flood again.

[CajunMama]

The water's receding but i see there's some more rain to the west...over frack's house! Hopefully the rains will stay lite and not build.

[southerngale]

The water's receding but i see there's some more rain to the west...over frack's house! Hopefully the rains will stay lite and not build.

LOL. It just won't stop. It's not heavy rain like last night though, but still...
At this point, none of it is helping matters any.

[southerngale]

Any thoughts from some of our mets or amateurs on how much rain can be expected Wednesday and Thursday? Pine Island Bayou is expected to keep rising until Thursday evening before it crests and starts to fall. Obviously, rain on Wednesday and Thursday could delay that and it could rise even higher, causing flooding problems. I'm just wondering what to expect as far as rainfall totals go.

Then they mention another widespread rain event is possible for the weekend.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 PM CST MON JAN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL START TO 2007 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA TODAY WITH NO CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
GOOD WEATHER WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS THE NEXT MAJOR STORM
SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTING A LIGHT
FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED.

CHANGES BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG CUTOFF
LOWS ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS THIS NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WITH ECMWF FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MUCH FASTER AND GFS FURTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER. THIS WILL AFFECT TRACK OF SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
OUR CWA...AND IN GENERAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE INLAND
WITH TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS WITH TAKING UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY...AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM
AROUND GALVESTON TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL HAVE WARMEST TEMPS
THERE...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS COOLER
TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL NUDGE UP PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND SLOWLY TAPER THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE AND STRONG HELICITY VALUES
ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE INCREDIBLE
MOISTURE LEVELS FORECAST FOR EARLY JANUARY...WITH PWATS CLIMBING
INTO THE 1.75" TO 2" RANGE. A STUDY BY NWS RAPID CITY INDICATES
THESE LEVELS WOULD EXCEED THE MAXIMUM PWATS EVER SEEN ACROSS OUR
CWA FOR EARLY JANUARY. NEEDLESS TO SAY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE A DEFINITE CONCERN FOR ALL AREAS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS FOR THE WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Yankeegirl]

Fun.... Kelly, wanna come over for the weekend? I think you might end up dryer over here under the dome.... we can go have some coffee with Jen!!!

[JenBayles]

Yes, you must! But then, if the NWS is on target, the next couple of days are gonna be pretty wet here too. Maybe if Kelly comes over to the Dome, she'll break it?!

[southerngale]

Ok, they just issued a Special Weather Statement. I guess I'll head to the Dome. Then y'all will get PLENTY of rain.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CST TUE JAN 2 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-030400-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1217 PM CST TUE JAN 2 2007

...ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION...

AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL
IGNITE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
FROM THIS EVENT.

IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THIS UPCOMING RAIN EVENT COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ON THURSDAY EXTENDING INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND ALONG AREA RIVERS. IN ADDITION...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS.

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

$$

BARRY/SHAMBURGER

[CajunMama]

What's that mess south of us in the gom? A blob? Andrea?




































JUST KIDDING...I couldn't resist!

[Yankeegirl]

HA ha ha ha ha ha .....

Dont get 'em started already!!!!

[southerngale]

ROFL - I think we have the first BLOB WATCH for 2007...right here in the USA Weather forum. Maybe I should go to the Tropics forum and link 'em here.

[JonathanBelles]

no blob watches yet PLEASE lol

[Lindaloo]

A low that is developing and will bring us lots and lots of rain.

[southerngale]

Here's the latest discussion for Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana from NWS Lake Charles. The threat of heavy rain and flooding hasn't gone away.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CST TUE JAN 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER NICE EARLY JANUARY DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAJOR CHANGES TO
BEGIN TOMORROW HOWEVER AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. FOR TONIGHT EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH A FAIRLY
QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE
SLOWING. DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD
BEGIN KICKING LOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECWMF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION
TAKING UPPER LOW ALONG A PATH FROM AROUND DEL RIO 12Z THURSDAY TO
AROUND TOLEDO BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL DISCOUNT.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND STRONG LIFT WILL CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL
MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST AND REACH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN AS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WITH A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF UPPER LOW...SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
TRACK SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH GFS TAKING IT FROM SOUTH OF
GLS AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TO NEAR
MONROE BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ALL ZONES...AND WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE VERY TRICKY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...BUT WILL HAVE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND WARMEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS NOTED YESTERDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS OF 1.5" TO 2" ACROSS THE
CWA...WELL OVER 200% OF NORMAL. MODEL QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATED AREA-WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT COULD RANGE
FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES. SHOULD
THESE TOTALS PAN OUT FLOODING WILL BE A BIG CONCERN.

THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL KEEP WARM SECTOR AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND MAINLY FURTHER EAST
IN THE LIX CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND LFT ON THURSDAY INDICATE
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WITH CAPES GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS AND
0-3KM SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2. WHILE THIS IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
WITH THE LAST STORM SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE A LOW-END RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES IF ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE
ONSHORE.

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GFS MOS FOR TEMPS
AND CHANCE POPS UNTIL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND TIMING IS NAILED
DOWN.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BY MORNING
ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
TOMORROW. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO SCA CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 40 55 52 62 / 0 30 80 80
KBPT 41 55 51 62 / 10 40 80 80
KAEX 34 56 51 62 / 0 20 80 80
KLFT 38 59 54 68 / 0 20 80 80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER