Most Pro Mets agree pattern change coming

[lwg8tr01]

I think it's safe to say but most Pro Mets are calling for the much heralded pattern change for the folks West of the Mississippi to start about Mid Month. Not significantly cold temps but a more return to normal. Warmistas want to point to the 0z and 12z GFS to show the SE Ridge staying in place and blocking any cold air intruding. The ensembles don’t agree with the persistent record warmth. HenryM on Accuweather even eluded to the pattern change in his blog today. The other mets who have been staunchly in the Warmista camp on Accuweather, i.e. Elliot Abrahms and Joe Sobel are eerily silent. Head to Florida boys for your 60 degree temps. But obviously Accuweather is firmly in the Warmista camp and shows Pittsburgh at 49 Degrees on Jan 16th. I emailed Sobel at Accuweather and asked him if he would like to wager $100 that bogus temp forecast won’t be right by 10 degrees. I get an email back in 5 mins, "Well we are looking at some more model runs..blah, blah". So then why lean on the GFS which they do, its crap forecasting Hurricanes and is even more crap forecasting longer range weather patterns accurately.

[aggiecutter]

The Ensembles are definitely consistent in the fact that a pattern change is coming, but there is still a lot of variance from run to run as to the intensity of the cold air. The noon run of the Ensembles has a set up for cross polar flow. I would like to see more run to run consistency before I get too excited, though.

[southerngale]

I think it's safe to say but most Pro Mets are calling for the much heralded pattern change for the folks West of the Mississippi to start about Mid Month. Not significantly cold temps but a more return to normal.

I thought it was near normal here already....cool days and cold nights most of the time.

[lwg8tr01]

I think it's safe to say but most Pro Mets are calling for the much heralded pattern change for the folks West of the Mississippi to start about Mid Month. Not significantly cold temps but a more return to normal.

I thought it was near normal here already....cool days and cold nights most of the time.

Here in Western PA, we have been a blowtorch at +10 to +15 on any particular day. I see that ErrorWeather is still calling for temps above 40N to be +10 after January 15th. I really am starting to think there is a political agenda there, pump warm winters, global warming, "An Inconvenient Truth", we are all going to die, type of bias when it comes to the weather. Look at the blog headlines.."No pattern change", etc. Why show a NAO or AO change? Why show the polar jet changing? Why when almost every quantitative measure shows Winter may actually make an appearance. Because showing NYC at 55 and rainy forwards your thinking that yuppie wives and their SUVs and Bush’s intransigence to Koyoto is why you have no snow. Jeez left wing politics has even infested the science of mathematics and weather modeling. Yes you Sobel and Abrams I am calling you a global warming left wing apparatchik of the enviro left. Just report the damn weather and try and get it right once in a while.

[Portastorm]

Like aggiecutter alluded to in his post, I notice some variability in the GFS ensembles in terms of where the most extreme below normal temps will be by mid month.

I have read where some pro mets believe that the massive trough the GFS carves out west during this period is overdone and that the full-latitude trough is more likely to be over the Plains. Of course, were this to verify, the release of arctic air into the Plains and eventually East will happen more easily.

[gboudx]

Accuweather does have this headline:

"Tired of all the mild weather? Want to see some real winter for a change? You'll get your wish. A dramatic shift in air streams will occur across North America next week. Recently, the polar jet stream has been completely out of the game, but there is every reason to believe that it will become the main player within the next 10 days. This will allow arctic air straight from Siberia to pour over the Pole, move southward through Canada then into the United States. The first attack of the cold air will be into the Northwest and northern Plains. From there the cold wave will spread to the south and east. Think about it. Places that will be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday may never get above zero by the middle of next week.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet"

[HarlequinBoy]

I hope a cold Arctic blast comes down. It's been a bit too warm for my liking, although today it was cool.

[aggiecutter]

No doubt, atleast according to the Noon Ensembles, the flow will be coming straight out of Siberia. Sometimes, in situations like this, the cold air will overwhelm the pattern, regardless of where the troughs sets up. At the very least, I think the air mass will slide down the east side of the Rockies into the southern plains and Texas. Hopefully, one of these El Nino systems will meet the air as it arrives in Texas. As portastorms' Guru JB says" It's all about source regions."

[gatorcane]

I was checking some NWS forecasts for the Ohio river valley. They have lowered their temps to highs in the upper 30s for much of central Ohio - with lows in the mid 20s by early next week -- which, believe it or not is STILL above normal.

The cold air is on the way

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 38.

[double D]

Looking at the OP runs of the GFS it never really shows the cold air coming south. It seems to hit a wall and weakens the arctic high and the patterns goes back to zonal with no real cold for the south plains.

Just like aggiecutter said the cold can overwhelm the pattern and undercut the zonal flow just like last February when the models were showing a strong zonal pattern.

[Coredesat]

Local mets were talking about a possible pattern change sometime later next week. Hopefully that'll happen, because central air is making things quite miserable with the heat on.

[aggiecutter]

WOW!!!...Checkout this 1064mb high that the Ensembles have over the Yukon Territory-British Colombia.

Noon Ensembles MSLP:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10212.html

[JonathanBelles]

wow thats a really strong High

[gatorcane]

wow thats a really strong High

it will have no effect on Florida weather though. It's too far away.

[Portastorm]

One look at the morning NCEP ensembles and all I have to say is WOW!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Should this verify, a major blast of arctic air will be heading south through the Plains around mid month. Or a few days earlier, actually.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

One look at the morning NCEP ensembles and all I have to say is WOW!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Should this verify, a major blast of arctic air will be heading south through the Plains around mid month. Or a few days earlier, actually.

EWG is going to wet in his pants when he sees that. Looks like the blast will go pretty far down into Mexico too.

[Lowpressure]

One look at the morning NCEP ensembles and all I have to say is WOW!

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Should this verify, a major blast of arctic air will be heading south through the Plains around mid month. Or a few days earlier, actually.

Now that would be what I call a pattern change.

[angelwing]

Looks like I better go unpack the winter hats & scarves

[aggiecutter]

If you'll notice on portastorms' link, that air originates in Siberia.

[ncupsscweather]

Yeah I know but from what it show there is going to be a big change that will take place. Which I hope it does because I am ready for some Winter Weather because here where I am at it seems more like fall.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_temp&loop=1