SE TX/SW LA weather thread #5 - rainy weather

[Yankeegirl]

What is the disco for the Houston area? and what is the link to get there? I have no clue...

[southerngale]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=HGX

Here's the 7-day forecast for Houston. Scroll to the bottom right and you'll see Forecast Discussion under Additional Forecasts & Information

You might want to save the link in your Bookmarks. At the top of the page, you can type in Katy, Tx. or Beaumont, Tx. or any zip code to get the 7-day for wherever you want.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 PM CST TUE JAN 2 2007

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL
8-10 KFT CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUD DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD GO OVC AROUND 8KFT AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z WEDNESDAY.
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KLBX/KGLS 14-17Z...SPREADING
NORTH TO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS 17-21Z. AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS...CEILINGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY TO THE MVFR RANGE AT KLBX/KGLS
16-18Z...AND KIAH/KHOU/KSGR 19-22Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WED AFTN FROM KIAH SOUTHWARD.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WARM AND MOIST AIR
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY AS
THE 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND A SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE DIFLUENCE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
500MB LOW WED NIGHT AND THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
APPROACHING...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH THE RECENT RAIN EVENT...SOME AREAS MAY
SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE TRAINING OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED. WILL INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH MENTION OF SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS
MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT THE
WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE COASTAL LOW MAY REACH THE
COASTAL SECTIONS THURS MORNING PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THURS
AFTERNOON INTO THURS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
AND THE 500MB LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. NOT MUCH
OF A DIURNAL CHANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND WILL INSULATE TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURS NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER 500MB TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SAT AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND AS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE 500MB TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TX. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO EAST TX SUN NIGHT AND
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND COOL WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
32
&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS COAST AND WREAK HAVOC WITH
THE WIND FIELD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS SFC WINDS TURN EAST
THEN SOUTH THEN WEST AND BACK TO THE SOUTH. TIDES WILL BECOME
ELEVATED IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WITH EAST WINDS. WIND AND SEAS
HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS OVER THE WATERS AS WELL. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORIES FOR NOW... BUT AN SCEC LOOKS LIKELY FOR WED AFTERNOON
AND AN SCA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 43
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 39 53 46 56 49 / 10 50 80 70 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 51 47 57 49 / 10 50 80 80 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 50 55 54 59 56 / 10 50 80 80 20
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION/MARINE...43

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the path of the surface low will place the heaviest rains right over south central LA. If we get 5" or so we will have MAJOR problems with flooding on our local river (Vermilion) since it's still above flood stage from the last system.

Could 2007 be the first year since 2004 we aren't 10"+ below normal for the year in rainfall? I think so, wet Louisiana is back apparently!

[JonathanBelles]

looks like it may kill the drought of south texas.

[southerngale]

looks like it may kill the drought of south texas.

I don't know exactly where you mean, but we're talking about Southeast Texas and there's definitely no drought here. In fact, many areas here have had flooding rains quite a few times lately.

[southerngale]

Think the folks at NWS Lake Charles are getting a little tired of all our rain? lol

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 AM CST WED JAN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A SIX DEGREE CAP AROUND 910 MB.
TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WELL IT`S AN EL NINO YEAR THATS FOR SURE...RAIN AND MORE RAIN ON
THE WAY.

IR "STLT" IS INDICATING CLOUDS MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS
TIME...GREAT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IN
THE PROCESS BEGIN TO DRAG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE TEXAS COAST
AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS A NICE
WAY OF SAYING...YEP IT`S GOING TO RAIN...AGAIN!

RAINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WILL
SEE GENERALLY ABOUT TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
ABOVE FIVE TO SIX INCHES.

THE GROUND IS SATURATED THEREFORE ALL THE RAINS WILL EITHER POOL
AND RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS WITH RIVERS RISING AGAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FINALLY FILTER INTO
OUR REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. NO RAIN IS
FORECASTED ON FRIDAY...BUT RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS MORNING WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 55 56 64 53 / 30 100 100 60
KBPT 56 56 60 49 / 30 100 100 50
KAEX 57 46 59 50 / 20 100 100 60
KLFT 56 55 66 56 / 20 100 100 60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER

Also a new Special Weather Statement...

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 AM CST WED JAN 3 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-032200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
509 AM CST WED JAN 3 2007

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STRONG STORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
TO BRING THE AREA WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DURING THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SPREADING
EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING...THEN FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
2 TO 4 INCHES AREA WIDE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES
WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.

DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINS THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS.

ALSO...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE UNSTABLE.

ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES WEBSITE AT
http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH FOR MORE INFORMATION.


$$

RUA

[southerngale]

I think I'm the only one who reads this thread anymore.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 AM CST WED JAN 3 2007

...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...

.MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES. RICH GULF AIR IS STREAMING IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHILE
FURTHER UP, PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS MOISTURE PILE-UP WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY, TO BE
LIFTED BY AN ADVANCING GULF WARM-FRONT, EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST AROUND DAWN. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING, WILL GIVE WAY TO ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAINS WILL BE
ENDING, FROM WEST-TO-EAST, WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.


LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-040530-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0001.070104T1200Z-070105T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1123 AM CST WED JAN 3 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...
RAPIDES AND ST. LANDRY IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY AND UPPER ST. MARTIN
IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND VERMILION IN WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...VERNON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MEAN
AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3
INCHES. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES.
BECAUSE SOILS ARE ALREADY NEAR SATURATION, ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL BEYOND 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN RUNOFF.

* SUGGESTED PREPARATION ACTIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE FLOODING
RAINS INCLUDE THE CLEANING OUT OF DITCHES AND CULVERS IN FRONT
OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

* A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

TRARES

$$

Btw...click here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 14#1504714

[CajunMama]

I don't ever remember lake charles nws so serious about a forecast. Lots of red warnings. I'd tell you what they were but i can't access the site for some reason right now

Edit...i got on the nws site finally. We have posted:

Flash Flood Watch
Flood Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast
Special Weather Statement

Definately looks like a busy day for us tomorrow.

[Yankeegirl]

I read this thread too.... Been kinda boring in the weather department though for the last few days... Looks to be more interesting tonight and tomorrow and into the mid month.... No rain here as of yet... Just cloudy with the sun popping out every once in a while... I have more errnads to run, so I am going to try and do it before the rain starts...

[southerngale]

Very similar over here, Frick:

Coastal Flood Statement
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast
Special Weather Statement

Don't put the ark away.

[Yankeegirl]

We dont have that many statements, though I am not close to the water at all....

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast

Is all I have here on the west side of town... and still no rain...

[Yankeegirl]

Well a pretty good blob of rain looked as if I might get some rain as it was moving towards us from the Sealy area, but then the Bear Creek Dome kicked in, and it fell apart as it got near us... go figure, the story of my life!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Interesting to note that the Houston area has not been included in a FFW, although that could change for a portion of the area with the afternoon crew. Corpus issued one earlier, along with LC. Both sound a bit concerned with the possibilities of excessive rainfall.

Things should ramp up fairly quickly this evening, and dependant on where the front sets up shop, severe weather could become an issue.

[jasons2k]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CST WED JAN 3 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.070104T0300Z-070104T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-
HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
400 PM CST WED JAN 3 2007


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER AND WHARTON.

* FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SURFACE
LOW MOVES UP THE TEXAS COAST. BY THURSDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

$$

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST WED JAN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE KHGX
RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL TECHNICIAN IS BEING BROUGHT IN TO ASSIST IN GEARBOX
REPAIRS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER TX THURSDAY...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH AND LOW FORMING AND MOVING ALONG THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS IS THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL
CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THOUGHT THE NAM WAS HANDLING SOME ASPECTS OF THE EVENT
BETTER THAN THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH WERE SIMILAR.

WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO NOON
THURSDAY FOR ALL OF SE TX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRAZOS...
BURLESON...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE FORMATION AND LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AREAS. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 NM OR SO OFF THE COAST. IF IT MOVES MORE
ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST...WILL NEED TO REVISE THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA. WITH PW/S APPROACHING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES...AN 850 MB ONSHORE WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS...AND THE
NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH AND LOW...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AND LOOK TO OCCUR BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. OF COURSE...THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW.

THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
GET. THE MODELS INDICATE BEST CAPE OCCURRING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT
AND LASTING INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT AND KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT EVENT WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 46 55 49 73 49 / 100 100 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 58 52 74 55 / 100 100 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 61 58 69 60 / 100 100 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.

&&

[weatherrabbit_tx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CST WED JAN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE KHGX
RADAR IS DOWN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL TECHNICIAN IS BEING BROUGHT IN TO ASSIST IN GEARBOX
REPAIRS.
bummer!! I guess other radars like abc13 and myfoxhouston.com.......oh ya khou.com formally skymax11

[JenBayles]

Didn't they just do radar maintenance for the last rain event we had? NUTS!

[JenBayles]

Hey Yankee - how much you wanna bet the BC Dome holds tonite? Any takers?

Not a freakin' drop under the Dome today, but I was at the Medical Center from 11:00 to 2:00 and it was very wet. I have to go back tomorrow, so no doubt we'll have flooding rains - everywhere but under The DOME.

[Stratosphere747]

Hey Yankee - how much you wanna bet the BC Dome holds tonite? Any takers?

Not a freakin' drop under the Dome today, but I was at the Medical Center from 11:00 to 2:00 and it was very wet. I have to go back tomorrow, so no doubt we'll have flooding rains - everywhere but under The DOME.

Get your rain gauge out...

Bet you have almost an inch of rain by Thursday morning....

[Yankeegirl]

Still no rain here yet either.... Its like a big umbrella!!