Current Pattern Resembes Summer-time Setup, Deep Easterlies

[gatorcane]

The past several weeks have featured a strong 588 SW Atlantic ridge pumping in deep easterlies across much of South Florida.

Recall we RARELY had these deep easterlies all summer long. In fact the long wave pattern featured short-wave troughs passing off the EC of the CONUS most of the summer. As we know, this regime caused everything to be shunted out to sea at about 60W.

It's amazing that now, we have the pattern that would allow hurricanes to cruise right into Florida and the GOM.....better that the pattern is now and not in August-October. In fact the long-wave pattern changed at the end of November after the bizarre UL that caused snow in Orlando.

Thoughts on this pattern and the possibility of this pattern dominating the 2007 hurricane season?

[Scorpion]

I like this weather, I enjoy being able to go outside without being uncomfortable. It's still 7 months from that part of hurricane season, so we have awhile.

[JonathanBelles]

gulp, i dont think that it is possible to have a hurricane here this time of year, but i do think it is something to watch. I however do like this weather.

[wxmann_91]

It's January.

The strong ridge is probably due to a +NAO that's been dominating since October (increased troughing over Greenland, higher heights over tropical Atlantic, eastern U.S, and western Europe). I don't think the NAO can remain positive for much longer.

[Frank2]

NWS forecasts a change to a trough in the midwest or even east coast, so, that'll put an end to our summertime weather pattern.

You wouldn't know it yesterday - lots of rain, with one good thunderstorm, and very humid, with highs in the low 80s.

Frank

[T'Bonz]

This weather sucks worse than a Hoover. We only get lovely weather in January and February and borderline good in Dec and March.

And right now, we are having October weather. Warm, a tad humid and wayyyy too warm at night. I hate it. Bad enough having 8 months of hell heat, don't cut into the few months of decent weather.

For those inclined to say it, I can't move away. Not until retirement, a long ten years away. When it arrives, I'm gone.

[JonathanBelles]

This weather sucks worse than a Hoover.

[gatorcane]

Ridge still holding strong....

000
FXUS62 KMFL 032158
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
457 PM EST WED JAN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
LAST SEVERAL SCANS OF THE GOES SOUNDER REVEAL MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...
AND THIS HAS UNDOUBTEDLY LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AND PREVENTED
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS DEEP
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND GREATER
ANTILLES...TRANSLATING WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...SUBSIDENCE...AND DEEP DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
THURSDAY HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING RAIN FREE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
STAYING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. BY TUESDAY...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN DUE TO AN ASSAULT BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS
IN THE WESTERLIES. RAIN CHANCES WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK...WITH A STEADY BREEZE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE EAST COASTAL AREAS.

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF COAST.
&&

[HeatherAKC]

Put me in the camp that says that this "winter" sucks.

Too hot, too humid, too windy.

We've had one decent "cold" front. Thanksgiving time. Other than that....nada...

Just a few nights in the 40's and 50's would be nice, but February is right around the corner and except for the slight chance of a March front, "winter" will be gone.

[f5]

imagine if this were to hold into august can anyone say Charley Ivan ect...

[dixiebreeze]

This is why I LOVE living in Florida! Never know for sure what to expect and always on the edge. I'll take whatever comes and like it. That said, I do expect a couple very cold fronts yet this winter, probably just enough to smack my budding bushes into oblivion.

[gatorcane]

imagine if this were to hold into august can anyone say Charley Ivan ect...

certainly. This current pattern would not bode well if it were August or September. Fortunately last August and September featured troughiness across the Western Atlantic.

The long wave pattern is definitely dynamic and certainly its all timing. I just wouldn't want this pattern in the heart of hurricane season.

[f5]

nudge the ridge slightly west and you got and Katrina&Rita scenario instead of a Charley&Ivan scenario