TSR 2nd 2007 Atlantic Forecast=15/8/4

[skywarn]

It appears to have changed little from their December 2006 forecast. Still calling for an active 2007 season. Close to Dr. Gray's forecast of 14/7/3.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

[JonathanBelles]

what was the reason for the decrease in forecast?

[skywarn]

Really not much of an decrease.The main difference is that the reduction is from 15.7 to 15.0. Rounded off this would be a reduction from 16 to 15.But basically the reduction from 8.5 to 8.3 and 3.9 to 3.7 is negligible.Really both forecasts made by TSR (Dec. 2006 and Jan. 2007) are still calling for 8 of the 15 predicted storms to be huricanes of which 4 will be major.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

After last season all I can say is we will see.

[hurricanetrack]

Once we get to August 15, we will pretty much know how this season will shape up. Unless we have another 2005, there is little need in worrying about a seasonal forecast (this early) until we get to the active part of the hurricane season. At THAT point, we will KNOW whether or not there is an El Nino, and whether or not there is a lot of dry air over the Atlantic and whether or not SSTs are above, below or at normal in the Atlantic and/or GOM. Until then, it matters little. Last season was a prime example of that and so was 2005 in my opinion. No one expected 28 named storms- early forecasts for 2005 were badly missed just like the were for 2006. So again, in my opinion, that's 2 back to back bad forecast seasons by the world's hurricane seasonal forecasters- at least early out. By that I mean prior to August 1. What can I say, it's hard to do I am sure. Hat's off to them for even trying.